Predicting Failure to Recover Swallowing in Patients with Severe Post-stroke Dysphagia: The DIsPHAGIc Score

In post-stroke dysphagia, early identification of patients at highest risk of failing swallowing recovery (SR) would be useful to decide which of them should undergo percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy. The studies on this subject were numerous but generally based on small statistical samples. In this retrospective study, 1232 patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke (73.7 ± 13.0 years, 51% men) were assessed: 593 non-dysphagic, 351 partially dysphagic and 288 totally dysphagic. Among the latter, 45.1% could not recover oral intake. A score to assess the risk of failing SR was obtained from the group with total dysphagia, and further 210 patients with total post-stroke dysphagia were utilized for validation. A regular progression of stroke severity markers, complications and mortality was observed from non-dysphagic, to partially dysphagic, up to totally dysphagic patients. Among the latter, seven variables were independently associated with failure of SR, and formed the “DIsPHAGIc score”: cerebral lesion Diameter ≥ 6 cm (+ 1), left frontal Ischemia (− 1), Partial anterior circulation syndrome (− 1), Hypoxia (+ 1), Antiplatelet drug (+ 1), GCS verbal reaction < 4 (+ 1), Internal capsule ischemia (− 1). The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.85). For total scores ≥ 2 there was a high risk of failing SR, with specificity 76.9%, sensitivity 72.1% and accuracy 74.7%. The application of the DIsPHAGIc score to the validation sample provided almost identical results. The evolution of post-stroke dysphagia towards irreversibility can be predicted by a simple, reproducible and robust scoring system based on 7 variables commonly available during hospitalization.