Background
Methods
Data
Statistical analysis
Multiple linear regression model
Transition model
Linear mixed effects model
Prediction performance
Results
Data set |
Gender
|
#Donor
|
#Deferral
|
#Cold Season
|
Age: Mean (SD)
|
Visit: Med (IQR)
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Training data set
| Male | 3610 | 769 (4.58%) | 10213 (50.05%) | 34.57 (12.9) | 5 (3) |
Female | 4306 | 1596 (9.62%) | 10387 (49.71%) | 32.66 (12.8) | 5 (1) | |
Total
|
7916
|
2365 (7.08)% |
20600 (49.88%)
|
33.53 (12.9)
|
5 (2)
| |
Validation data set
| Male | 3449 | 688 (4.27%) | 9781 (49.95%) | 34.28 (12.6) | 5 (3) |
Female | 4260 | 1729 (10.41%) | 10341 (49.54%) | 32.77 (12.8) | 5 (2) | |
Total
|
7709
|
2417 (7.38%)
|
20122 (49.74%)
|
33.45 (12.7)
|
5 (2)
|
Parameter |
Model LR
|
AR(1)
|
AR(2)
|
AR(3)
|
AR(4)
|
AR(5)
|
Model LME
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
intercept
| 9.6448 | 9.6309 | 9.6441 | 9.6560 | 9.6617 | 9.6633 | 9.6719 |
(0.0142) | (0.0206) | (0.0231) | (0.0243) | (0.0246) | (0.0247) | (0.0243) | |
Age
| -0.0045 | -0.0043 | -0.0044 | -0.0045 | -0.0047 | -0.0047 | -0.0049 |
(0.0003) | (0.0005) | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0006) | (0.0007) | (0.0006) | |
Season(Warm) | -0.0627 | -0.0615 | -0.0681 | -0.0699 | -0.0693 | -0.0694 | -0.0698 |
(0.0089) | (0.0074) | (0.0066) | (0.0066) | (0.0067) | (0.0067) | (0.0067) | |
DPV
| -0.0610 | -0.0469 | -0.0350 | -0.0385 | -0.0440 | -0.0474 | -0.0636 |
(Donation) | (0.0092) | (0.0089) | (0.0079) | (0.0074) | (0.0072) | (0.0072) | (0.0068) |
γ
1
| — | 0.5158 | 0.3685 | 0.3053 | 0.2746 | 0.2630 | — |
— | (0.0061) | (0.0068) | (0.0076) | (0.0082) | (0.0087) | — | |
γ
2
| — | — | 0.2888 | 0.2080 | 0.1766 | 0.1621 | — |
— | — | (0.0078) | (0.0087) | (0.0084) | (0.0091) | — | |
γ
3
| — | — | — | 0.2207 | 0.1730 | 0.1581 | — |
— | — | — | (0.0095) | (0.0104) | (0.0109) | — | |
γ
4
| — | — | — | — | 0.1488 | 0.1257 | — |
— | — | — | — | (0.0123) | (0.0129) | — | |
γ
5
| — | — | — | — | — | 0.0829 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | (0.0167) | — |
Parameter |
Model LR
|
AR(1)
|
AR(2)
|
AR(3)
|
AR(4)
|
AR(5)
|
Model LME
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
intercept
| 8.2737 | 8.2394 | 8.2555 | 8.2678 | 8.2698 | 8.2702 | 8.2832 |
(0.0123) | (0.0164) | (0.0180) | (0.0186) | (0.0187) | (0.0187) | (0.0181) | |
Age
| 0.0042 | 0.0044 | 0.0042 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.0040 | 0.0037 |
(0.0003) | (0.0004) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | (0.0005) | |
Season(Warm) | -0.0347 | -0.0405 | -0.0415 | -0.0413 | -0.0415 | -0.0415 | -0.0411 |
(0.0078) | (0.0062) | (0.0060) | (0.0062) | (0.0061) | (0.0061) | (0.0062) | |
DPV
| -0.1106 | -0.1411 | -0.1273 | -0.1307 | -0.1335 | -0.1346 | -0.1387 |
(Donation) | (0.0079) | (0.0075) | (0.0067) | (0.0064) | (0.0063) | (0.0063) | (0.0060) |
γ
1
| — | 0.4669 | 0.3457 | 0.3012 | 0.2878 | 0.2830 | — |
— | (0.0062) | (0.0067) | (0.0074) | (0.0080) | (0.0084) | — | |
γ
2
| — | — | 0.2573 | 0.1963 | 0.1793 | 0.1693 | — |
— | — | (0.0080) | (0.0088) | (0.0089) | (0.0099) | — | |
γ
3
| — | — | — | 0.1742 | 0.1486 | 0.1360 | — |
— | — | — | (0.0100) | (0.0112) | (0.0121) | — | |
γ
4
| — | — | — | — | 0.0831 | 0.0623 | — |
— | — | — | — | (0.0157) | (0.0182) | — | |
γ
5
| — | — | — | — | — | 0.0681 | — |
— | — | — | — | — | (0.0264) | — |
Male donors | Female donors | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | AIC | BIC | MSPE | AIC | BIC | MSPE |
Linear Regression | 37087.8 | 37127.2 | 4.14 | 35968.9 | 36008.6 | 2.29 |
Mixed Effects | 30524.3 | 30571.6 | 2.90 | 30058.0 | 30113.6 | 1.75 |
AR(1) | 32051.0 | 32098.3 | 3.07 | 31559.1 | 31606.7 | 1.81 |
AR(2) | 30936.4 | 30991.6 | 2.85 | 30664.7 | 30720.3 | 1.73 |
AR(3) | 30471.9 | 30535.0 | 2.78 | 30375.1 | 30438.7 | 1.71 |
AR(4) | 30342.5 | 30413.4 | 2.78 | 30341.7 | 30413.2 | 1.72 |
AR(5) | 30321.4 | 30400.2 | 2.79 | 30325.1 | 30404.5 | 1.72 |