We included 1438 participants (age 65 ± 11 years; 604 women and 834 men). Hospitalisation for heart failure occurred during follow-up (median 64 months) in 206 participants; the incidence rate of heart failure was 2.5 (95% CI 2.2, 2.9) per 100 person-years. Plasma concentrations of MR-proADM and NT-proBNP were significantly associated with heart failure in a Cox multivariable analysis model when adjusted for age, diabetes duration, history of coronary heart disease, proteinuria and baseline eGFR (
adjHR [95%CI] 1.83 [1.51, 2.21] and 2.20 [1.86, 2.61], respectively, per 1 SD log
10 increment, both
p < 0.001). MR-proADM contributed significant supplementary information to the prognosis of heart failure when we considered the clinical risk factors (integrated discrimination improvement [IDI, mean ± SEM] 0.021 ± 0.007,
p = 0.001) (Table
3). Inclusion of NT-proBNP in the multivariable model including MR-proADM contributed significant complementary information on prediction of heart failure (IDI [mean ± SEM] 0.028 ± 0.008,
p < 0.001). By contrast, MR-proADM did not contribute supplementary information on prediction of heart failure in a model including NT-proBNP (IDI [mean ± SEM] 0.003 ± 0.003,
p = 0.27), with similar results for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and preserved ejection fraction.