Background
Methods
Data
Epidemiological data
Climatic data
Climatic variable | Formula |
---|---|
Average temperature |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations} average\ daily\ temperature\left(j,s\right)}} \)
|
Daily variation of temperature |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations}\left( \max daily\ temperature\left(j,s\right)- \min daily temperature\left(j,s\right)\right)}} \)
|
Relative weekly variation of temperature |
Average temperature(week
t + 1) − Average temperature(week
t
) |
Absolute weekly variation of temperature | |Average temperature(week
t + 1) − Average temperature(week
t
)| |
Average relative humidity |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations} average\ daily\ relative\ humidity\left(j,s\right)}} \)
|
Daily variation of relative humidity |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations}\left( \max daily\ relative\ humidity\left(j,s\right)- \min daily\ relative\ humidity\left(j,s\right)\right)}} \)
|
Relative weekly variation of relative humidity |
Average relative humidity(week
t + 1) − Average relative humidity(week
t
) |
Absolute weekly variation of relative humidity | |Average relative humidity(week
t + 1) − Average relative humidity(week
t
)| |
Average absolute humidity |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations} average\ daily\ absolute\ humidity\left(j,s\right)}} \)
|
Daily variation of absolute humidity |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations}\left( \max daily\ absolute\ humidity\left(j,s\right)- \min daily\ absolute\ humidity\left(j,s\right)\right)}} \)
|
Relative weekly variation of absolute humidity |
Average absolute humidity(week
t + 1) − Average absolute humidity(week
t
) |
Absolute weekly variation of absolute humidity | |Average absolute humidity(week
t + 1) − Average absolute humidity(week
t
)| |
Average wing speed |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days}{\displaystyle {\sum}_{s=0}^{stations} average\ daily\ wind\ speed\left(j,s\right)}} \)
|
Rainfall height |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days} average\ daily\ rainfalls\ height\left(j,s\right)} \)
|
Sunshine duration |
\( \frac{1}{days}\cdot \frac{1}{stations}\cdot {\displaystyle {\sum}_{j=0}^{days} average\ daily\ sunshine\ duration\left(j,s\right)} \)
|
Mathematical models
Impact of climatic factors at the transmission scale
Impact of climatic factors at the epidemic scale
Results
Impact of climatic factors at the transmission scale
Model | Number of parameters | AIC criterion |
---|---|---|
a(1), b(1), c(0), d(1), α(1) | 5 | 1455.00 |
a(1), b(R), c(0), d(1), α(1) | 15 | 1460.48 |
a(1), b(1), c(0), d(R), α(1) | 15 | 1462.00 |
a(1), b(1), c(0), d(1), α(Y) | 13 | 1468.29 |
a(1), b(1), c(0), d(1), α(R) | 15 | 1471.00 |
a(1), b(1), c(0), d(Y), α(1) | 13 | 1801.52 |
a(R), b(1), c(0), d(1), α(1) | 15 | 1824.58 |
Climatic factor | c | Standard deviation | Impact (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Average absolute humidity | −0.0612 | 0.0108 | 5.94 |
Average temperature | −0.0570 | 0.0109 | 5.54 |
Average relative humidity | −0.0505 | 0.0120 | 4.92 |
Daily variation of relative humidity | 0.0436 | 0.0124 | 4.46 |
Sunshine duration | 0.0340 | 0.0106 | 3.46 |
Daily variation of absolute humidity | −0.0307 | 0.0117 | 3.02 |
Impact of climatic factors at the epidemic scale
Model | Number of parameters | AIC criterion |
---|---|---|
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + a
Y
+ a
R
+ b ⋅ ES
Y − 1,R
| 19 | −241.64 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + a
Y
+ a
R
| 18 | −243.42 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + a
Y
| 8 | −225.85 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + b ⋅ ES
Y − 1,R
| 2 | −157.11 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0
| 1 | −144.70 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + a
Y
+ b ⋅ ES
Y − 1,R
| 9 | −234.99 |
ES
Y,R
= a
0 + a
R
| 11 | −135.74 |