Background
Methods
Results
Team | Digital Data source | Model type | Regional forecasta
| Brief descriptiond
|
---|---|---|---|---|
A | Wikipedia | mechanisticb
| Yes | Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model using data assimilation to probabilistically fit models to ILINet data |
B | Twitter | mechanistic | Yes | SEIR model initialized with current Twitter and ILINet data |
C | Google Flu Trends; Twitter | statisticalc
| Yes | Utilized method of analogues, Kalman filtering, Poisson regression, and an ensemble method averaging the results of the three models to forecast ILINet |
D | Google Flu Trends | statistical | Yes | Utilized empirical Bayes model and a spatio-temporal likelihood function |
E | Google Flu Trends; Twitter | statistical | Yes | Utilized multiplicative time series model |
F | Google Flu Trends | mechanistic | Yes | Susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model initialized with Google Flu Trends data and data assimilation methods |
G | Twitter | statistical | No | Extrapolation of filtered Twitter data |
H | Google Flu Trends; HealthMap; Twitter | mechanistic | Yes | Statistical models used to make short term forecasts and agent based models combined with mean field models with non-linear optimization techniques used to output long term forecasts. |
I | Twitter | statistical | Yes | Utilized time series model and method of analogues |
Start weeka
| Peak weeka
| Peak percentage | Duration of influenza season | |
---|---|---|---|---|
United States | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 14 |
Date of forecast (Week of ILINet data availabilitya,b) | Median forecasted start weekb
| Median forecasted peak weekb
| Median forecasted peak percentage | Median forecasted duration of influenza season |
---|---|---|---|---|
12/2/2013 (WK. 46) | 50 | 5 | 3.5 | 13 |
12/19/2013 (WK. 49) | 49 | 3 | 4.5 | 14 |
1/2/2014 (WK. 51) | 48 | 3 | 4.5 | 15 |
1/16/2014 (WK.1) | 48 | 2 | 4.9 | 14 |
1/30/2014 (WK. 3) | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 14 |
2/13/2014 (WK. 5) | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 13 |
2/27/2014 (WK. 7) | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 13 |
3/13/2014 (WK. 9) | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 14 |
3/27/2014 (WK. 11) | 48 | 52 | 4.6 | 14 |
Date of forecast (Week of ILINet data availabilitya,b) | Start week | Peak week | Peak percentage | Duration of influenza season |
---|---|---|---|---|
12/2/2013 (WK. 46) | 3 (23 %) | 1 (8 %) | 3 (23 %) | 4 (31 %) |
12/19/2013 (WK. 49) | 6 (46 %) | 2 (15 %) | 6 (46 %) | 6 (46 %) |
1/2/2014 (WK. 51) | 12 (92 %)c
| 2 (15 %) | 5 (38 %) | 7 (54 %) |
1/16/2014 (WK.1) | 12 (92 %) | 6 (46 %) | 10 (77 %) | 6 (46 %) |
1/30/2014 (WK. 3) | 11 (85 %) | 11 (85 %) | 11 (85 %) | 6 (46 %) |
2/13/2014 (WK. 5) | 11 (85 %) | 10 (77 %) | 12 (92 %) | 6 (46 %) |
2/27/2014 (WK. 7) | 11 (85 %) | 11 (85 %) | 13 (100 %) | 5 (38 %) |
3/13/2014 (WK. 9) | 11 (85 %) | 11 (85 %) | 13 (100 %) | 9 (69 %) |
3/27/2014 (WK. 11) | 10 (77 %) | 12 (92 %) | 13 (100 %) | 10 (77 %) |