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01.12.2015 | Research article | Ausgabe 1/2016 Open Access

BMC Public Health 1/2016

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

BMC Public Health > Ausgabe 1/2016
Adam D. M. Briggs, Ariane Kehlbacher, Richard Tiffin, Peter Scarborough
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​s12889-016-2723-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Authors’ contributions

AB and PS had the original idea for the study. AB coordinated the study, designed the methodology, and wrote the first draft of the manuscript. AK devised the application of the tax strategy to food categories and completed the econometric modelling. RT designed the econometric modelling methodology. PS designed the PRIME model. AK, RT, and PS commented on and provided input into the study methodology and various drafts of the final manuscript. All authors have given final approval of the version to be published. All authors agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Authors’ information

AB is a Wellcome Trust Research Training Fellow; AK is a Lecturer in Food Economics; RT is a Professor, University of Reading; PS is a Senior Researcher and Principal Investigator of the Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food.



Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs).


Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality.


We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption.


Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.
Additional file 1: Tabular data. Sheet 1 shows the matrix of own- and cross-price elasticities for the 32 food and drink categories and sheet 2 shows indicates whether the elasticities are statistically significant or not (1 indicates statistical significance). Elasticity estimates refer to price rise for item listed in top row with respect to quantity change for those listed in first column. (XLS 53 kb)
Additional file 2: Tabular data. This file shows the proportion of the food and drink budget spent on each of the 32 food and drink categories. (XLS 35 kb)
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