Background
Methods
Study area
Data collection
Analysis
Results
Global spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran Index)
Years | N | Incidence Rate | I | Z | p-value | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 years (2005–2015) | ||||||
2005–2015 | 42 | 0.088 | 32.74 | 0.00 | Clustered | |
2 periods (2005–2010 and 2011–2015) | ||||||
2005–2010 | 37 | 1.3 | 0.049 | 6.27 | 0.00 | Clustered |
2011–2015 | 40 | 7.7 | 0.007 | 1.10 | 0.26 | Random |
All years | ||||||
2005 | 24 | 1.3 | 0.01 | 8.12 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2006 | 29 | 3.0 | 0.09 | 2.29 | 0.05 | Clustered |
2007 | 13 | 0.6 | 0.03 | 6.16 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2008 | 15 | 0.9 | − 0.04 | − 0.44 | 0 | Random |
2009 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 4.8 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2010 | 17 | 1.8 | 0.02 | 5.91 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2011 | 32 | 9.3 | 0,1 | 5.47 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2012 | 30 | 5.9 | − 0.01 | 0 | 0 | Random |
2013 | 32 | 6.1 | 0.06 | 3.71 | 0.01 | Clustered |
2014 | 27 | 6.2 | 0.01 | 1.11 | 0 | Random |
2015 | 32 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 5.1 | 0.01 | Clustered |
Spatial clustering of Malaria during 2005–2015
Years | Type | N | Coordinates/radius | Observed | Expected | RR | LLR | p-value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 years (2005–2015) | ||||||||
2005–2015 | A | 8 | − 7.761 S, 110.035 E/6.42 km | 2573 | 1068.15 | 4.39 | 1164.28 | 0.000 |
B | 5 | − 7.796 S, 110.079 E/1.83 km | 667 | 195.77 | 3.84 | 373.86 | 0.000 | |
2 periods (2005–2010 and 2011–2015) | ||||||||
2005–2010 | A | 24 | − 7.691 S, 110.012 E/15.2 km | 461 | 212.67 | 3.74 | 169.8 | 0.000 |
B | 11 | − 7.691 S, 110.091 E/4.02 km | 239 | 71.10 | 4.36 | 142.76 | 0.000 | |
2011–2015 | A | 15 | − 7.761 S, 110.035 E/6.42 km | 2414 | 1424.23 | 3.11 | 554.70 | 0.000 |
B | 3 | − 7.796 S, 110.079 E/2.32 km | 1064 | 543.66 | 2.36 | 241.21 | 0.000 | |
All years | ||||||||
2005 | A | 9 | − 7.691 S, 110.012 E/15.27 km | 461 | 212.7 | 3.74 | 169.84 | 0.000 |
B | 1 | − 7.819 S, 110.115 E/0 km | 23 | 1.18 | 21.87 | 47.76 | 0.000 | |
2006 | A | 15 | − 7.731 S, 110.088 E/5.67 km | 160 | 81.47 | 3.07 | 45.66 | 0.000 |
B | 5 | − 7.696 S, 110.103 E/1.95 km | 69 | 18.71 | 4.49 | 44.54 | 0.000 | |
2007 | A | 6 | − 7.691 S, 110.091 E/3.60 km | 17 | 2.97 | 7.35 | 17.30 | 0.000 |
2008 | A | 6 | − 7.696 S, 110.103 E/2.34 km | 51 | 21.68 | 2.35 | 6.95 | 0.000 |
2009 | A | 5 | − 7.691 S, 110.091 E/11.21 km | 7 | 2.07 | 3.86 | 3.91 | 0.030 |
2010 | A | 10 | − 7.696 S, 110.103 E/11.19 km | 99 | 27.02 | 15.13 | 95.93 | 0.000 |
B | 2 | − 7.789 S, 110.064 E/1.93 km | 32 | 1.36 | 31.47 | 74.62 | 0.000 | |
2011 | A | 13 | − 7.761 S, 110.035 E/6.42 km | 704 | 298.73 | 6.72 | 374.09 | 0.000 |
B | 5 | − 7.789 S, 110.064 E/2.73 km | 385 | 159.01 | 3.44 | 151.77 | 0.000 | |
2012 | A | 2 | − 7.713 S, 110.062 E/1.43 km | 73 | 13.88 | 5.91 | 65.42 | 0.000 |
B | 9 | − 7.776 S, 110,085 E/4.58 km | 285 | 196.94 | 192 | 29.15 | 0.000 | |
2013 | A | 13 | − 7.780 S, 110,049 E/5.25 km | 419 | 237.44 | 3.83 | 117.78 | 0.000 |
B | 2 | − 7.780 S, 110.047 E/1.62 km | 120 | 47.45 | 2.53 | 44.03 | 0.000 | |
2014 | A | 13 | − 7.780 S, 110.049 E/5.16 km | 414 | 230.21 | 3.69 | 117.32 | 0.000 |
B | 1 | − 7.776 S, 110.085 E/0 km | 124 | 47.99 | 3.01 | 47.31 | 0.000 | |
2015 | A | 2 | − 7.796 S, 110.079 E/1.83 km | 247 | 71.74 | 3.44 | 148.75 | 0.000 |
B | 10 | − 7.713 S, 110.062 E/5.75 km | 373 | 294.21 | 1.44 | 14.60 | 0.000 |
Distribution of malaria temporal clustering
Years | Cluster time frame | Observed | Expected | RR | LLR | p-value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 years (2005–2015) | ||||||
2005–2015 | 1/12/2010–31/10/2015 | 3586 | 1967.24 | 5.45 | 1261.8 | 0.001 |
2 periods (2005–2010 and 2011–2015) | ||||||
2005–2010 | 1/08/2005–31/10/2006 | 444 | 167.70 | 4.68 | 227.26 | 0.001 |
2011–2015 | 1/09/2011–31/12/2012 | 714 | 301.31 | 2.71 | 230.31 | 0.001 |
All years | ||||||
2005 | 1/08/2005–31/12/2005 | 149 | 87.19 | 3.50 | 37.56 | 0.001 |
2006 | 1/03/2006–31/8/2006 | 205 | 151.23 | 2.12 | 19.75 | 0.001 |
2007 | 1/02/2007–30/6/2007 | 47 | 27.12 | 3.55 | 12.23 | 0.001 |
2008 | 1/07/2008–31/8/2008 | 26 | 11.18 | 3.19 | 9.33 | 0.001 |
2009 | 1/06/2009–30/09/2009 | 24 | 14.04 | 2.66 | 4.94 | 0.016 |
2010 | 1/12/2010–31/12/2010 | 38 | 10.36 | 4.87 | 25.49 | 0.001 |
2011 | 1/09/2011–31/12/2011 | 588 | 305.51 | 3.50 | 176.01 | 0.001 |
2012 | 1/01/2012–31/01/2012 | 126 | 46.92 | 3.18 | 51.89 | 0.001 |
2013 | 1/09/2013–30/11/2013 | 256 | 143.11 | 2.42 | 52.27 | 0.001 |
2014 | 1/10/2014–31/12/2014 | 336 | 148.46 | 3.94 | 134.13 | 0.001 |
2015 | 1/07/2015–30/09/2015 | 435 | 240.96 | 2.48 | 92.01 | 0.001 |
11 years (2005–2015) | 2 periods (2005–2010 and 2011–2015) | All years | |
---|---|---|---|
Annual spatial using SaTScan | Primary clustering occurred in Purworejo and secondary occurred in cross-border area of both regencies | Primary clustering of malaria in 2005–2010 occurred in both regencies. However, in 2011–2015, more clustering occurred in Purworejo | In general, clustering occurred more often in Purworejo district. In 2009–2014, both primary or secondary cluster occurred more often in Purworejo. In 2015, clustering occurred in the cross-border area |
Temporal cluster | Cluster duration during the 11 years was 59 months with a case average clustering of 61 cases per month | Cluster duration during 2005–2010 was 15 months with an average of 30 cases per month including 16 months with an average of 45 cases per month during 2011–2015 | Cluster duration from 2005 to 2015 was different in each month. Average of cases per month in cluster varied. The lowest was 6 cases in 2009 and the highest was 152 cases per month in 2015. Starting from 2011, clustering average in study location increased |