Introduction
Methods
Study population
Data collection
24-h ECG
CHARGE-AF risk score
End-point ascertainment
Statistical methods
Results
Baseline characteristics
All (n = 373) | Men (n = 170) | Women (n = 203) | |
---|---|---|---|
Case of AF (n, %) | 88 (23.6) | 46 (27.1) | 42 (20.7) |
Age (years) | 64.0 (5.9) | 64.1 (6.1) | 64.0 (5.7) |
Current smoking (n, %) | 85 (22.8) | 45 (26.5) | 40 (19.7) |
History of diabetes (n, %) | 32 (8.6) | 18 (10.6) | 14 (6.9) |
History of coronary events (n, %) | 8 (2.1) | 5 (2.9) | 3 (1.5) |
History of heart failure (n, %) | 2 (0.5) | 1 (0.6) | 1 (0.5) |
Anti-hypertensive medication (n, %) | 95 (25.5) | 38 (22.4) | 57 (28.1) |
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 143.6 (18.5) | 145.2 (18.6) | 142.3 (18.3) |
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 88.3 (9.6) | 90.3 (9.6) | 86.6 (9.3) |
Height (cm; n = 372) | 169.0 (9.4) | 176.3 (6.9) | 162.8 (6.3) |
Weight (kg; n = 372) | 77.3 (13.2) | 83.9 (12.2) | 71.8 (11.4) |
HOMA-IR (n = 366) | 2.54 (1.83) | 2.75 (2.03) | 2.36 (1.64) |
LDL (mmol/l; n = 372) | 3.72 (0.83) | 3.67 (0.76) | 3.76 (0.89) |
NT-proBNP (pg/ml) | 41.84 (100.73) | 53.22 (128.35) | 32.32 (68.56) |
Troponin T (pg/ml) | 1.14 (1.40) | 1.46 (1.66) | 0.88 (1.07) |
CHARGE-AF risk score (n = 372) | 12.01 (0.75) | 12.26 (0.73) | 11.81 (0.71) |
Plasma biomarkers, supraventricular arrhythmias and incidence of AF
N = 373 | Subjects | Incident AF cases | Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | Model 1 h (95%CI) | Model 2 h (95%CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NT-proBNP and SVEs | |||||
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, infrequent SVEs | 220 | 35 | 9.49 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated NT-proBNP, infrequent SVEs | 59 | 12 | 15.07 | 1.45 (0.75, 2.80)† | 1.52 (0.76, 3.05)† |
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, frequent SVEs | 60 | 22 | 25.30 | 2.48 (1.45, 4.26) | 2.32 (1.33, 4.06)† |
Elevated NT-proBNP, frequent SVEs | 34 | 19 | 47.05 | 4.19 (2.30, 7.65) | 4.61 (2.45, 8.69) |
Interaction NT-proBNP * SVEs | P = 0.740 | P = 0.582 | |||
NT-proBNP and SVTs | |||||
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, infrequent SVTs | 214 | 31 | 8.68 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated NT-proBNP, infrequent SVTs | 61 | 16 | 20.24 | 1.99 (1.08, 3.67) | 2.03 (1.07, 3.87)‡ |
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, frequent SVTs | 66 | 26 | 26.08 | 2.52 (1.48, 4.29) | 2.26 (1.30, 3.95) |
Elevated NT-proBNP, frequent SVTs | 32 | 15 | 36.66 | 3.55 (1.88, 6.70) | 4.46 (2.24, 8.88) |
Interaction NT-proBNP *SVTs | P = 0.443 | P = 0.945 | |||
NT-proBNP and SVA | |||||
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, non-elevated SVA | 195 | 28 | 8.54 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated NT-proBNP, non-elevated SVA | 53 | 12 | 17.11 | 1.74 (0.88, 3.44)§ | 1.76 (0.86, 3.62)§ |
Non-elevated NT-proBNP, elevated SVA | 85 | 29 | 22.63 | 2.23 (1.32, 3.79) | 2.10 (1.21, 3.65)§ |
Elevated NT-proBNP, elevated SVA | 40 | 19 | 38.10 | 3.65 (1.98, 6.73) | 4.33 (2.26, 8.31) |
Interaction NT-proBNP *SVA | P = 0.894 | P = 0.740 |
N = 373 | Subjects | Incident AF cases | Incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) | Model 1 h (95%CI) | Model 2 h (95%CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
TnT and SVEs | |||||
Non-elevated TnT, infrequent SVEs | 225 | 37 | 10.00 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated TnT, infrequent SVEs | 54 | 10 | 12.76 | 1.09 (0.54, 2.20)† | 0.96 (0.47, 1.97)† |
Non-elevated TnT, frequent SVEs | 55 | 19 | 23.69 | 2.24 (1.28, 3.92) | 2.30 (1.30, 4.09) |
Elevated TnT, frequent SVEs | 39 | 22 | 46.69 | 3.71 (2.11, 6.51) | 3.07 (1.74, 5.41) |
Interaction TnT *SVEs | P = 0.377 | P = 0.501 | |||
TnT and SVTs | |||||
Non-elevated TnT, infrequent SVTs | 221 | 33 | 9.18 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated TnT, infrequent SVTs | 54 | 14 | 18.22 | 1.66 (0.88, 3.12) | 1.43 (0.75, 2.74) |
Non-elevated TnT, frequent SVTs | 59 | 23 | 25.27 | 2.40 (1.40, 4.11) | 2.29 (1.31, 4.02) |
Elevated TnT, frequent SVTs | 39 | 18 | 37.02 | 2.99 (1.65, 5.45) | 2.58 (1.40, 4.76) |
Interaction TnT *SVTs | P = 0.528 | P = 0.599 | |||
TnT and SVA | |||||
Non-elevated TnT, non-elevated SVA | 198 | 30 | 9.22 | Ref | Ref |
Elevated TnT, non-elevated SVA | 50 | 10 | 13.79 | 1.27 (0.62, 2.62)‡ | 1.07 (0.51, 2.24)‡ |
Non-elevated TnT, elevated SVA | 82 | 26 | 20.79 | 1.97 (1.16, 3.35) | 1.91 (1.10, 3.33) |
Elevated TnT, elevated SVA | 43 | 22 | 41.55 | 3.35 (1.87, 5.99) | 2.85 (1.58, 5.13) |
Interaction TnT *SVA | P = 0.533 | P = 0.493 |
NT-proBNP, SVEs, and CHARGE-AF score
N = 364 | C-statistic (95%CI) | P for difference‡ | NRI |
---|---|---|---|
CHARGE-AF score | 0.720 (0.669, 0.771) | Reference | Reference |
Frequent SVEs | 0.778 (0.703, 0.854) | 0.075 | − 0.222 (− 0.372, 0.059) |
Elevated NT-proBNP | 0.726 (0.635, 0.817) | 0.448 | − 0.277 (− 0.427, − 0.001) |
Elevated TnT | 0.705 (0.610, 0.799) | 0.376 | − 0.258 (− 0.425, − 0.098) |
Frequent SVEs + elevated NT-proBNP | 0.768 (0.704, 0.832) | 0.084 | − 0.126 (− 0.334, 0.158) |
CHARGE-AF score + frequent SVEs | 0.743 (0.694, 0.793) | 0.020 | 0.311 (0.182, 0.440) |
CHARGE-AF score + elevated NT-proBNP | 0.734 (0.685, 0.783) | 0.110 | 0.288 (− 0.028, 0.385) |
CHARGE-AF score + elevated TnT | 0.717 (0.664, 0.769) | 0.392 | 0.201 (− 0.176, 0.362) |
CHARGE-AF score + frequent SVEs + elevated NT-proBNP | 0.751 (0.702, 0.799) | 0.015 | 0.300 (0.166, 0.452) |