Background
Methods
Study area and meteorological data
Mortality data
Statistical methods
Results
Statistical results
Category | Minimum | 25% | Median | 75% | Maximum | Mean ± SD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Daily meteorological data | ||||||
Maximum temperature (°C) | 23.2 | 29.5 | 31.1 | 33 | 40.6 | 31.2±2.9 |
Mean relative humidity (%) | 21 | 56.8 | 66 | 75 | 97 | 64.7±14.6 |
Mean air pressure (hPa) | 990.4 | 998.1 | 1001 | 1004 | 1014 | 1001±4.6 |
Deaths by age | ||||||
≥65 years of age | 39 | 62 | 71 | 79 | 144 | 71.9±12.9 |
0–64 years of age | 6 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 36 | 15.7±4.3 |
Deaths by sex | ||||||
Male | 24 | 38 | 44 | 50 | 88 | 44.4±7.5 |
Female | 20 | 36 | 42 | 49 | 92 | 42.5±8.1 |
Deaths by occupation | ||||||
Outdoor | 18 | 29 | 33 | 39 | 78 | 32.5±8 |
Indoor | 17 | 33 | 38 | 44 | 67 | 37.6±7.1 |
Unemployed | 2 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 9.5±4.3 |
Unknown | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 4.7±2.9 |
Ref | Hot1 | Hot2 | Hot3 | Hot4 | Hot5 | Hot6 | Hot7 | Hot8 | Hot9 | Hot10 | Hot11 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Days | 157 | 43 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
ER values of consecutive days’ high temperature
ER values of the different subgroups
Percentage increase (95% CI) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Consecutive days | 32 °C | 33 °C | 34 °C | 35 °C |
Overall population | Hot1 | 2.7(−2.1,7.7) | −2.4(−7.3,2.9) | 1.1(−5.4,8.2) | −5(−11.1,1.6) |
Hot2 | 2.8(−3.2,9) | 1.5(−5,8.5) | 0.1(−7.6,8.5) | 1.2(−7.5,10.6) | |
Hot3 | 5.9(−0.4,12.6) | −3.2(−10.9,5.2) | 2.7(−7.3,13.7) | 0.3(−10.5,12.4) | |
Hot4 | 0.4(−7.5,9) | 4.4(−6.7,16.8) | −0.5(−13.3,14.2) | 10.1(1.1,19.5)* | |
Hot5 | 16.1(5.7,27.5)* | 28.5(10.5,49.5)* | 30.6(12.6,51.5)* | 51(21.3,88.1)* | |
Hot6 | 27.8(10.6,47.7)* | 26.9(10.2,46.2)* | 29.9(13.1,49.3)* | — | |
Hot7 | 15.3(−1.2,34.6) | 15.8(−0.4,34.7) | 15(−0.8,33.4) | — | |
Hot8 | 31.5(6.7,62.1)* | 24.6(1.7,52.6)* | 35(9.9,65.8)* | — | |
Hot9 | 30.8(6.5,60.7)* | 40(14.1,72.7)* | 81(52,114.8)* | — | |
Hot10 | 44.8(17.5,78.6)* | 87(56.5,122.4)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 93(61.4,130.4)* | — | — | — | |
Older people | Hot1 | −0.6(−5.8,4.8) | −4.2(−9.6,1.5) | 0.2(−7,8) | −5.1(−11.9,2.3) |
Hot2 | 3.3(−3.2,10.3) | 2.8(−4.4,10.6) | 2.7(−6,12.1) | 4.7(−5.1,15.4) | |
Hot3 | 6.9(−0.1,14.3) | −1.7(−10.3,7.7) | 4.7(−6.4,17) | 4.4(−7.9,18.3) | |
Hot4 | 1.2(−7.5,10.8) | 8.5(−4,22.6) | 3.2(−11.2,20.1) | 15.6(−9.6,47.8) | |
Hot5 | 19.5(7.9,32.3)* | 37.7(17,62.2)* | 33.9(13.8,57.7)* | 65(30.4,109.4)* | |
Hot6 | 32.3(13,54.8)* | 26.3(8.1,47.6)* | 32.1(13.4,53.7)* | — | |
Hot7 | 13.7(−4.2,34.9) | 18(0,39.2)* | 16.1(−1.2,36.5) | — | |
Hot8 | 33.3(5.9,67.8)* | 25.2(0.2,56.3)* | 39(11.1,74)* | — | |
Hot9 | 30.7(4.3,63.8)* | 44.5(15.2,81.2)* | 88(56.2,126.9)* | — | |
Hot10 | 47.8(17.6,85.9)* | 94(60.2,134.3)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 99(63.9,140.9)* | — | — | — | |
Females | Hot1 | 1.1(−6.3,9) | −4.8(−12.4,3.5) | 1.1(−9.1,12.5) | −3.3(−13,7.4) |
Hot2 | 4.4(−4.8,14.6) | 5.9(−4.5,17.5) | 7.5(−5,21.6) | 10.9(−3.1,27) | |
Hot3 | 9.6(−0.4,20.5) | −2.3(−14.2,11.2) | 12.2(−4.1,31.1) | 1.4(−15,21.1) | |
Hot4 | 6.6(−6.2,21.2) | 16(−2.3,37.7) | 9.6(−11.1,35.2) | 24.4(−11.6,75.2) | |
Hot5 | 22.1(5.5,41.4)* | 50.7(20.4,88.7)* | 47(17.5,83.8)* | 75(25.6,143.4)* | |
Hot6 | 64.8(33.9,102.7)* | 55.1(26.3,90.4)* | 54.7(26.4,89.4)* | — | |
Hot7 | 27(0.6,60.3)* | 24.7(0.7,52.7)* | 38.1(11.3,71.4)* | — | |
Hot8 | 39.7(1.6,92)* | 62.6(21.6,117.4)* | 60.5(19.1,116.3) * | — | |
Hot9 | 71(27.3,129.8) * | 72.4(27.5,133) * | 92(47.9,149.3) * | — | |
Hot10 | 78.7(31.7,142.6)* | 104(56.3,166)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 111(61,175.9)* | — | — | — | |
Outdoor workers | Hot1 | 3.5(−4.9,12.7) | −2.7(−11.3,6.7) | −2.8(−13.7,9.4) | −2.6(−12.9,8.9) |
Hot2 | 11(0.2,23)* | 4.3(−7,17) | 0.7(−12.3,15.8) | 0.5(−13.6,16.8) | |
Hot3 | 8.6(−2.4,20.7) | 5.5(−8.3,21.5) | 7.3(−9.8,27.7) | −5(−11,0) | |
Hot4 | −5.6(−18.6,9.6) | 2.2(−16.3,24.7) | 3(−18.6,30.5) | 13.8(−21.9,65.8) | |
Hot5 | 15.9(−1.7,36.6) | 43.5(10.8,85.9)* | 17.5(−10.7,54.6) | 92(35.1,171.8)* | |
Hot6 | 53(20.6,94.2)* | 27.4(−0.8,63.7) | 36(7,73)* | — | |
Hot7 | 2.2(−23.6,36.8) | 11.7(−15.2,47.1) | 5.7(−19.2,38.3) | — | |
Hot8 | 31.5(−10,92.2) | 17.2(−18.6,68.8) | 54(8.2,118.2)* | — | |
Hot9 | 25.3(−13.4,81.4) | 61(12.9,129.3)* | 140(81.9,217.6)* | — | |
Hot10 | 65(14.9,135.6)* | 149(87.1,230.5)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 158(93.3,244.5)* | — | — | — |
Percentage increase (95% CI) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Consecutive days | 32 °C | 33 °C | 34 °C | 35 °C |
Younger people | Hot1 | 13.4(−5.9,32.3) | 5.5(−6.5,19.1) | 4.3(−10.6,21.8) | −4.6(−18.3,11.5) |
Hot2 | 0.3(−13,15.6) | −4.1(−18,12.3) | −10.3(−25.9,8.5) | −13.3(−30.2,7.7) | |
Hot3 | 0.6(−13.4,16.8) | −10.1(−26.5,9.9) | −7.2(−27.9,19.6) | −17.1(−37.4,9.8) | |
Hot4 | −3.5(−20.6,17.3) | −14.6(−36,13.9) | −16.4(−40.2,16.8) | −18.8(−54.2,44) | |
Hot5 | −0.6(−21.6,26.2) | −10.9(−40.4,33.3) | 16.2(−19,66.6) | −6(−48.1,70) | |
Hot6 | 5.9(−27.2,54) | 29.2(−7.6,80.6) | 19.3(−15.7,68.6) | — | |
Hot7 | 22.6(−14.3,75.6) | 5.8(−27,53.3) | 9.5(−24.1,58.1) | — | |
Hot8 | 23(−25.5,103.1) | 21.2(−26.1,98.7) | 15.8(−30.5,92.8) | — | |
Hot9 | 30(−21.2,114.5) | 20.6(−27.9,101.7) | 43(−10.1,126.2) | — | |
Hot10 | 29(−23.3,117) | 49(−6.8,137.3) | — | — | |
Hot11 | 59(−0.6,155.5) | — | — | — | |
Males | Hot1 | −2.3(−9.3,5.3) | −3.6(−11.2,4.6) | −0.6(−10.4,10.4) | −6.9(−16.2,3.5) |
Hot2 | 2.2(−6.7,12.1) | −0.1(−9.9,10.8) | −1.9(−13.4,11.2) | −1.8(−14.9,13.2) | |
Hot3 | 4.3(−5.1,14.6) | −1.1(−13,12.5) | −2.3(−16.8,14.7) | 7.4(−10,28.1) | |
Hot4 | −3.8(−15.4,9.4) | 1.7(−14.6,21.1) | −3(−22,20.7) | 7(−24.8,52.4) | |
Hot5 | 17.1(1.6,35)* | 25.3(−1.3,59.1) | 21.5(−4.3,54.3) | 56(10.8,118.8)* | |
Hot6 | 2.3(−19.7,30.5) | −0.9(−22.1,26.2) | 9.9(−12.7,38.5) | — | |
Hot7 | 0.7(−21.8,29.7) | 11.3(−12.5,41.6) | −4.6(−25.4,22) | — | |
Hot8 | 27.3(−8.7,77.7) | −7.8(−35,30.7) | 17.5(−16.5,65.5) | — | |
Hot9 | −4.4(−32.8,36.1) | 18(−16.4,66.6) | 86(42,142.5)* | — | |
Hot10 | 19.2(−15.9,68.9) | 85(40.8,142.6)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 88(42.9,147.8)* | — | — | — | |
Indoor workers | Hot1 | −2(−9.5,6.1) | −10.2(−17.8,-1.9) | −0.4(−11,11.5) | −8.9(−19.1,2.5) |
Hot2 | −7.6(−16.5,2.1) | −6.8(−16.7,4.4) | −7(−18.9,6.6) | 4.6(−10.3,22) | |
Hot3 | 6.1(−4,17.3) | −12.1(−23.7,1.4) | 2.1(−14.1,21.3) | 21.1(0.2,46.3)* | |
Hot4 | −0.5(−13.1,13.8) | 4.4(−13.1,25.5) | −12.9(−31.6,11) | 2.5(−31.1,52.5) | |
Hot5 | 28.2(10.5,48.8)* | 22.9(−4.8,58.7) | 46.6(15.6,85.8)* | 42(−3.4,109.8) | |
Hot6 | 12.1(−13.4,45) | 27.4(0.8,61)* | 26.5(−0.1,60.1) | — | |
Hot7 | 30.6(2.5,66.3)* | 20.8(−5.2,53.8) | 32.3(5.1,66.7)* | — | |
Hot8 | 20.5(−15.5,71.6) | 30(−6.2,80) | 13.1(−20.6,61.1) | — | |
Hot9 | 36.6(−1.8,90.1) | 15.6(−19.1,65.1) | 61(20.6,115.9)* | — | |
Hot10 | 20.7(−15.9,73) | 65(22.3,121.1)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 70(26.4,129.8)* | — | — | — | |
Unemployed | Hot1 | 2.1(−11.9,18.3) | 13.8(−2.9,33.5) | 9.3(−11.1,34.5) | −2.6(−21.1,20.3) |
Hot2 | 14.6(−4.5,37.6) | 34.6(6.9,69.5)* | 37.1(12.6,66.8)* | 19.3(−8.7,55.9) | |
Hot3 | 10.2(−8.6,33) | 6.3(−17.6,37) | 2.7(−25.2,41.1) | −4.8(−33.2,35.7) | |
Hot4 | 23.4(−3.2,57.3) | 36.9(−1,89.2) | 49.2(0.6,121.4)* | 103(9.4,274.9)* | |
Hot5 | 4.1(−23.3,41.2) | 61(4,149.1)* | 67.1(9.4,155.4)* | 104(7,287)* | |
Hot6 | 9.9(−29.1,70.3) | 23.2(−19.2,87.6) | 8.2(−29.8,66.8) | — | |
Hot7 | 8.4(−31.8,72.5) | 6.4(−33.9,71.4) | 2.4(−36.1,64.1) | — | |
Hot8 | 35.1(−28.1,153.9) | 50.2(−19.5,180) | 94(6.7,253.4)* | — | |
Hot9 | 41(−24.9,164.9) | 109(14.5,282.3)* | 103(18.5,248)* | — | |
Hot10 | 103(10.3,274.1)* | 116(24.9,272.6)* | — | — | |
Hot11 | 108(19.8,261.3)* | — | — | — |
Threshold | Duration | |
---|---|---|
Alert1 | 32 °C | >4 consecutive days |
Alert2 | 33 °C | >4 consecutive days |
Alert3 | 34 °C | >4 consecutive days |
Alert4 | 35 °C | >3 consecutive days |