Skip to main content

01.12.2015 | Research Article | Ausgabe 1/2015 Open Access

BMC Public Health 1/2015

The influence of societal individualism on a century of tobacco use: modelling the prevalence of smoking

BMC Public Health > Ausgabe 1/2015
John C. Lang, Daniel M. Abrams, Hans De Sterck
Wichtige Hinweise

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.​1186/​s12889-015-2576-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Authors’ contributions

JCL, DMA and HDS all contributed equally to this work. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.



Smoking of tobacco is estimated to have caused approximately six million deaths worldwide in 2014. Responding effectively to this epidemic requires a thorough understanding of how smoking behaviour is transmitted and modified.


We present a new mathematical model of the social dynamics that cause cigarette smoking to spread in a population, incorporating aspects of individual and social utility. Model predictions are tested against two independent data sets spanning 25 countries: a newly compiled century-long composite data set on smoking prevalence, and Hofstede’s individualism/collectivism measure (IDV).


The general model prediction that more individualistic societies will show faster adoption and cessation of smoking is supported by the full 25 country smoking prevalence data set. Calibration of the model to the available smoking prevalence data is possible in a subset of 7 countries. Consistency of fitted model parameters with an additional, independent, data set further supports our model: the fitted value of the country-specific model parameter that determines the relative importance of social and individual factors in the decision of whether or not to smoke, is found to be significantly correlated with Hofstede’s IDV for the 25 countries in our data set.


Our model in conjunction with extensive data on smoking prevalence provides evidence for the hypothesis that individualism/collectivism may have an important influence on the dynamics of smoking prevalence at the aggregate, population level. Significant implications for public health interventions are discussed.
Additional file 1 Appendices A and B. Appendix A: Additional Tables and Figures, Appendix B: Additional Remarks on Model Implications and Study Design. (PDF 380 kb)
Additional file 2 Smoking prevalence and tobacco consumption data. CSV file containing four columns: country number as it appears in Table A.1 of the Additional file 1, year (t), measurement (x(t) or c(t)), and type of measurement (0 indicates a smoking prevalence measurement, while 1 indicates a cigarette consumption measurement). (CSV 35 kb)
Additional file 3 Proxy data: articles published on the health effects of smoking. CSV which contains three columns: year (t), number of articles published in year t, and cumulative number of articles published up to and including year t (n(t)). (CSV 1 kb)
Additional file 4 Matlab data files and simulation code. Matlab data files and simulation code used in preparation of this manuscript. (ZIP 21 kb)
Additional file 5 Proxy data: US population. CSV containing two columns: year (t) and population N pop (t). (CSV 1 kb)
Über diesen Artikel

Weitere Artikel der Ausgabe 1/2015

BMC Public Health 1/2015 Zur Ausgabe