Trends and Projections in Hypertension-Related Mortality in the United States: A 1979–2050 CDC WONDER Analysis
- 24.12.2025
- Original article
- Verfasst von
- Muhammad Ahmed
- Faizan Abbas
- Saifullah Khan
- Shaheer Qureshi
- Ghulam Taha Khan
- Shaheer Bin Shafiq
- Wardah Imran
- Saad Ahmed Waqas
- Marat Fudim
- Gregg C. Fonarow
- Stephen J. Greene
- Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
- Erschienen in
- High Blood Pressure & Cardiovascular Prevention
Abstract
Introduction
Hypertension remains a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the United States. Despite advances in detection and treatment, the burden of hypertension-related deaths continues to challenge public health systems. Understanding long-term mortality trends and projecting future patterns is essential to guide policy, allocate resources, and inform prevention strategies.
Aim
This study aimed to examine national trends in hypertension-related mortality in the U.S. from 1979 to 2023 using CDC WONDER data and to project mortality patterns through 2050 to support public health planning and intervention efforts.
Methods
We extracted age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population for hypertension as the underlying cause of death from the CDC WONDER database. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in trajectory, calculating the annual percent change (APC) for specific periods and the average APC for broader trends. Future mortality rates were projected through 2050 using time series models trained on 1979–2015 data, validated against data through 2023, and refined using rolling forecasting techniques.
Results
From 1979 to 2023, 2,575,968 hypertension-related deaths occurred. AMRs rose from 27.0 (95% CI, 26.7–27.3) to 40.2 (95% CI, 40.0–40.5), peaking in 2020. Males had consistently higher AAMRs than females. In 2023, AAMRs were 46.7 in males and 33.9 in females. Racial disparities persisted, with Black individuals having a higher AAMR than Whites in 2023 (70.2 vs 35.5). The South remained the most affected region, with Oklahoma (164.1), Mississippi (101.7), and Tennessee (86.0) showing the highest AAMRs in 2023. Forecasts indicate rising hypertension-related mortality, with male AAMR reaching 88.8, Black AAMR 68.4, and older adult AAMR 267.5 by 2050.
Conclusion
Hypertension mortality will remain a major public health issue, with growing sex disparities and high rates in older adults and the South, underscoring the need for targeted, long-term interventions.
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- Titel
- Trends and Projections in Hypertension-Related Mortality in the United States: A 1979–2050 CDC WONDER Analysis
- Verfasst von
-
Muhammad Ahmed
Faizan Abbas
Saifullah Khan
Shaheer Qureshi
Ghulam Taha Khan
Shaheer Bin Shafiq
Wardah Imran
Saad Ahmed Waqas
Marat Fudim
Gregg C. Fonarow
Stephen J. Greene
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan
- Publikationsdatum
- 24.12.2025
- Verlag
- Springer International Publishing
- Erschienen in
-
High Blood Pressure & Cardiovascular Prevention
Print ISSN: 1120-9879
Elektronische ISSN: 1179-1985 - DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s40292-025-00775-0
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