Background
Methods
Data source
Study population
Outcomes
Statistical analysis
Results
Baseline characteristics
Incidence rates and trends over time
Characteristic | Incidence of pancreatic adenocarcinoma | Incidence of adenocarcinoma of the head of pancreas | Incidence of adenocarcinoma of the body and tail of pancreas | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases, No (%)a | Rate (95% CI)b | Cases, No (%)a | Rate (95% CI)b | Cases, No (%)a | Rate (95% CI)b | |
Overall | 67,878 (100) | 6.95 (6.90 - 7.00) | 33,728 (100) | 3.46 (3.42 - 3.50) | 14,321 (100) | 1.46 (1.43 - 1.48) |
Sex | ||||||
Male | 35,062 (51.65) | 8.16 (8.07 - 8.24) | 17,033 (50.50) | 3.98 (3.92 - 4.04) | 7,666 (53.53) | 1.76 (1.72 - 1.81) |
Female | 32,816 (48.35) | 5.99 (5.93 - 6.06) | 16,695 (49.50) | 3.05 (3.00 - 3.09) | 6,655 (46.47) | 1.22 (1.19 - 1.25) |
Race | ||||||
White | 55,222 (81.35) | 6.77 (6.71 - 6.83) | 27,492 (81.51) | 3.37 (3.33 - 3.42) | 11,414 (79.70) | 1.40 (1.37 - 1.42) |
Black | 7,797 (11.49) | 9.85 (9.63 -10.08) | 3,961 (11.74) | 5.02 (4.86 - 5.19) | 1,727 (12.06) | 2.16 (2.05 - 2.27) |
Othersc | 4,755 (7.01) | 5.80 (5.63 - 5.97) | 2,229 (6.61) | 2.72 (2.61 - 2.84) | 1,153 (8.05) | 1.39 (1.31 - 1.48) |
Unknownd | 104 (0.15) | - | 46 (0.14) | - | 27 (0.19) | - |
Age at diagnosis, y | ||||||
<60 | 16,305 (24.02) | 1.93 (1.90 - 1.96) | 7,729 (22.92) | 0.92 (0.90- 0.94) | 3,750 (26.19) | 0.44 (0.43 - 0.46) |
>60 | 51,573 (75.98) | 32.28 (32.00 - 32.56) | 25,999 (77.08) | 16.30 (16.10 - 16.50) | 10,571 (73.81) | 6.58 (6.46 - 6.71) |
Statee | ||||||
California | 10,960 (16.15) | 7.06 (6.93 - 7.20) | 5,563 (16.49) | 3.60 (3.50 - 3.69) | 2,347 (16.39) | 1.50 (1.44-1.56) |
Connecticut | 10,906 (16.07) | 7.41 (7.27 - 7.55) | 5,363 (15.90) | 3.64 (3.54 - 3.74) | 2,306 (16.10) | 1.57 (1.51-1.63) |
Georgia | 5,113 (7.53) | 7.09 (6.89 - 7.29) | 2,585 (7.66) | 3.61 (3.46 - 3.75) | 1,178 (8.22) | 1.61 (1.52-1.71) |
Hawaii | 2,955 (4.35) | 6.47 (6.23 - 6.71) | 1,316 (3.90) | 2.88 (2.73 - 3.04) | 700 (4.89) | 1.53 (1.41-1.64) |
Iowa | 9,079 (13.38) | 6.75 (6.61 - 6.89) | 4,631 (13.73) | 3.42 (3.33 - 3.53) | 1,941 (13.55) | 1.46 (1.39-1.52) |
Michigan | 12,539 (18.47) | 7.87 (7.73 - 8.01) | 6,182 (18.33) | 3.89 (3.79 - 3.99) | 2,556 (17.85) | 1.60 (1.53-1.66) |
New Mexico | 3,890 (5.73) | 6.09 (5.89 - 6.28) | 1,928 (5.72) | 3.01 (2.87 - 3.15) | 671 (4.69) | 1.04 (0.96-1.12) |
Utah | 3,172 (04.67) | 5.32 (5.13 - 5.51) | 1,581 (4.69) | 2.67 (2.54 - 2.81) | 667 (4.66) | 1.11 (1.02-1.19) |
Washington | 9,264 (13.65) | 6.68 (6.55 - 6.82) | 4,579 (13.58) | 3.31 (3.22 - 3.41) | 1,955 (13.65) | 1.40 (1.34-1.47) |
Stage at diagnosisf | ||||||
Localized | 5,796 (8.54) | 0.60 (0.58 - 0.62) | 3,678 (10.90) | 0.38 (0.37 - 0.40) | 1,123 (7.84) | 0.11 (0.11 - 0.12) |
Regional | 18,623 (27.43) | 1.90 (1.88 - 1.93) | 13,193 (39.12) | 1.35 (1.33 - 1.37) | 2,140 (14.94) | 0.22 (0.21 - 0.23) |
Distant | 38,852 (57.24) | 3.96 (3.92 - 3.998) | 14,685 (43.54) | 1.50 (1.47 - 1.52) | 10,600 (74.02) | 1.08 (1.06 - 1.10) |
Unstaged | 4,607 (6.79) | 0.48 (0.47-0.50) | 2,172 (6.44) | 0.23 (0.22-0.24) | 458 (3.20) | 0.05 (0.04-0.05) |
Incidence-based mortality rates and trends over times
characteristic | Incidence-based mortality of pancreatic adenocarcinoma | Incidence-based mortality of adenocarcinoma of the head of pancreas | Incidence-based mortality of adenocarcinoma of the body and tail of pancreas | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases, No (%)a,b | Rate (95% CI)c | Cases, No (%)a,b | Rate (95% CI) c | Cases, No (%)a,b | Rate (95% CI) c | |
Overall | 63,426 (100) | 6.52 (6.47 - 6.57) | 31,609 (100) | 3.26 (3.22 - 3.30) | 12,859 (100) | 1.32 (1.29 - 1.39) |
Sex | ||||||
Male | 32,771 (51.67) | 7.73 (7.65 - 7.82) | 15,975 (50.54) | 3.79 (3.73 - 3.86) | 6,903 (53.68) | 1.61 (1.57 - 1.65) |
Female | 30,655 (48.33) | 5.58 (5.52 - 5.64) | 15,634 (49.46) | 2.84 (2.79 - 2.89) | 5,956 (46.32) | 1.09 (1.06 - 1.11) |
Race | ||||||
White | 51,742 (81.58) | 6.36 (6.30 - 6.41) | 25,815 (81.67) | 3.18 (3.14 - 3.22) | 10,289 (80.01) | 1.26 (1.24 - 1.28) |
Black | 7,309 (11.52) | 9.42 (9.19 - 9.64) | 3,736 (11.82) | 4.84 (4.68 – 5.00) | 1,557 (12.11) | 1.99 (1.89 - 2.09) |
Othersd | 4,313 (6.80) | 5.34 (5.18 - 5.50) | 2,030 (6.42) | 2.52 (2.41 - 2.64) | 997 (7.75) | 1.22 (1.15 - 1.30) |
Unknowne | 62 (0.10) | - | 28 (0.09) | - | 16 (0.13) | - |
Age at death, y | ||||||
<60 | 13,432 (21.18) | 1.59 (1.56 - 1.62) | 6,358 (20.11) | 0.75 (0.73 - 0.77) | 2,869 (22.31) | 0.34 (0.33 - 0.35) |
>60 | 49,994 (78.82) | 31.45 (31.16 - 31.73) | 25,251 (79.89) | 15.93 (15.73 - 16.13) | 9,990 (77.69) | 6.25 (6.13 - 6.38) |
Statef | ||||||
California | 10,192 (16.07) | 6.60 (6.47 - 6.73) | 5,196 (16.44) | 3.38 (3.29 - 3.47) | 2,092 (16.27) | 1.35 (1.29 - 1.41) |
Connecticut | 10,146 (16.00) | 6.90 (6.76 - 7.03) | 4,991 (15.79) | 3.39 (3.30 - 3.49) | 2,077 (16.15) | 1.41 (1.35 - 1.47) |
Georgia | 4,635 (7.30) | 6.57 (6.38 - 6.77) | 2,362 (7.47) | 3.38 (3.24 - 3.52) | 1,012 (7.87) | 1.41 (1.33 - 1.51) |
Hawaii | 2,776 (4.38) | 6.11 (5.88 - 6.34) | 1,245 (3.94) | 2.75 (2.60 - 2.91) | 631 (4.91) | 1.38 (1.27 - 1.49) |
Iowa | 8,556 (13.49) | 6.31 (6.17 - 6.44) | 4,383 (13.87) | 3.22 (3.12 - 3.32) | 1,767 (13.74) | 1.31 (1.25-1.37) |
Michigan | 11,916 (18.79) | 7.52 (7.38 - 7.66) | 5,882 (18.61) | 3.73 (3.63 - 3.82) | 2,350 (18.27) | 1.48 (1.42 -1.54) |
New Mexico | 3,660 (5.77) | 5.77 (5.59 - 5.97) | 1,817 (5.75) | 2.86 (2.73 - 3.00) | 613 (4.77) | 0.96 (0.88 - 1.04) |
Utah | 2,948 (4.65) | 4.99 (4.81 - 5.17) | 1,471 (4.65) | 2.51 (2.38 - 2.64) | 591 (4.60) | 0.99 (0.91 -1.07) |
Washington | 8,597 (13.55) | 6.25 (6.12 - 6.38) | 4,262 (13.48) | 3.11 (3.02 - 3.21) | 1,726 (13.42) | 1.25 (1.19-1.31) |
Stage at diagnosisg | ||||||
Localized | 4,656 (7.34) | 0.49 (0.47 - 0.50) | 3,250 (10.28) | 0.34 (0.33 - 0.35) | 610 (4.74) | 0.06 (0.06 - 0.07) |
Regional | 16,977 (26.77) | 1.75 (1.72- 1.78) | 12,083 (38.23) | 1.25 (1.22 - 1.27) | 1,878 (14.60) | 0.19 (0.18 - 0.20) |
Distant | 37,327 (58.85) | 3.81 (3.78 - 3.85) | 14,170 (44.83) | 1.45 (1.42 - 1.47) | 9,929 (77.21) | 1.01 (0.99 - 1.03) |
Unstaged | 4,466 (7.04) | 0.47 (0.46-0.48) | 2,106 (6.66) | 0.22 (0.21-0.23) | 442 (3.45) | 0.05 (0.04-0.05) |
Overall (1973-2014) | Trends | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | |||||||||
APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | |
Overall | 1.03 (0.86-1.21) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 1.84 (0.97-2.71) | <.001 | 1983-1999 | -0.18 (-0.56-0.20) | .35 | 1999-2014 | 2.43 (2.11-2.74) | <.001 |
Sex | |||||||||||
Male | 0.88 (0.69-1.06) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 1.10 (0.11-2.09) | .03 | 1983-1999 | -0.25 (-0.69-0.20) | 0.27 | 1999-2014 | 2.33 (1.97-2.69) | <.001 |
Female | 1.16 (0.97-1.36) | <.001 | 1973-1984 | 2.49 (1.40-3.59) | <.001 | 1984-1999 | -0.27 (-0.87-0.34) | 0.37 | 1999-2014 | 2.54 (2.09-3.00) | <.001 |
Race | |||||||||||
White | 1.09 (0.91-1.28) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 1.77 (0.84-2.70) | <.001 | 1983-1999 | -014 (-0.55-0.28) | 0.50 | 1999-2014 | 2.59 (2.24-2.95) | <.001 |
Black | 0.65 (0.43-0.87) | <.001 | 1973-1986 | 1.85 (0.31-3.40) | .02 | 1986-1998 | -0.73 (-2.20-0.76) | .32 | 1998-2014 | 1.47 (0.76-2.18) | <.001 |
Othersc | 0.89 (0.61-1.18) | <.001 | 1973-2006 | 0.26 (-0.09-0.62) | .14 | 2006-2009 | 8.41 (-7.86-27.55) | .32 | 2009-2014 | -1.21 (-4.41-2.10) | .46 |
Age at diagnosis, y | |||||||||||
<60 | 0.38 (0.18-0.59) | <.001 | 1973-1984 | 0.91 (-0.16-1.98) | 0.09 | 1984-1993 | -2.14 (-3.76- -0.50) | 0.01 | 1993-2014 | 1.48 (1.16-1.80) | <.001 |
>60 | 1.23 (1.05-1.40) | <.001 | 1973-1984 | 2.11 (1.32-2.90) | <.001 | 1984-1999 | -0.07 (-0.50-0.36) | 0.74 | 1999-2014 | 2.58 (2.26-2.91) | <.001 |
Stage at diagnosisd | |||||||||||
Localized | 1.67 (1.03-2.32) | <.001 | 1973-1981 | 6.05 (1.61-10.69) | .01 | 1981-2001 | -2.11 (-3.06 - -1.16) | <.001 | 2001-2014 | 7.98 (6.63-9.35) | <.001 |
Regional | 1.84 (1.63-2.04) | <.001 | 1973-2014 | 1.84 (1.63-2.04) | <.001 | ||||||
Distant | 0.95 (0.73-1.18) | <.001 | 1973-1976 | 7.56 (-0.44-16.41) | 0.06 | 1976-1995 | -0.55 (-0.96- -0.14) | 0.01 | 1995-2014 | 2.20 (1.90-2.50) | <.001 |
Overall (1973-2014) | Trend | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | Year | APCa (95% CI) | P valueb | |
Overall | 2.22 (1.93-2.51) | <.001 | 1973-1982 | 4.58 (3.38-5.79) | <.001 | 1982-2000 | 1.45 (1.08-1.83) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 3.83 (3.21-4.45) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.70 (-31.78 - -16.88) | <.001 |
Sex | ||||||||||||||
Male | 2.31 (2.03-2.59) | <.001 | 1973-1975 | 15.14 (0.57-31.82) | .04 | 1975-2000 | 1.83 (1.59-2.06) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 4.03 (3.40-4.67) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.52 (-31.71 - -16.57) | <.001 |
Female | 2.17 (1.85-2.49) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 5.34 (3.99-6.71) | <.001 | 1983-2000 | 1.20 (0.68-1.73) | <.001 | 2000-2012 | 3.66 (2.85-4.47) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.79 (-33.89 - -14.44) | <.001 |
Race | ||||||||||||||
White | 1.92 (1.64-2.21) | <.001 | 1973-1976 | 12.10 (4.45-20.30) | <.001 | 1976-2001 | 1.53 (1.29-1.78) | <.001 | 2001-2012 | 3.50 (2.73-4.28) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.89 (-32.58 - -16.32) | <.001 |
Black | 2.91 (2.54-3.27) | <.001 | 1973-1980 | 8.93 (4.65-13.38) | <.001 | 1980-2001 | 2.19 (1.55-2.82) | <.001 | 2001-2012 | 4.46 (3.00-5.94) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -24.30 (-37.98 - -7.60) | .01 |
Othersc | 4.86 (4.40-5.31) | <.001 | 1973-2012 | 5.23 (4.92-5.53) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -22.08 (-37.33 - -3.13) | .03 | ||||||
Age at death, y | ||||||||||||||
<60 | 1.50 (1.10-1.91) | <.001 | 1973-1993 | 0.19 (-0.34-0.73) | .46 | 1993-2005 | 4.03 (2.84-5.24) | <.001 | 2005-2012 | 0.44 (-2.06-3.00) | .72 | 2012-2014 | -33.46 (-45.65 - -18.53) | <.001 |
>60 | 2.40 (2.10-2.70) | <.001 | 1973-1983 | 5.42 (4.30-6.55) | <.001 | 1983-2002 | 1.46 (1.11-1.82) | <.001 | 2002-2012 | 4.57 (3.69-5.46) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -22.92 (-30.31 - -14.75) | <.001 |
Stage at diagnosisd | ||||||||||||||
Localized | 1.39 (0.92-1.87) | <.001 | 1973-1981 | 9.30 (5.75-12.97) | <.001 | 1981-1999 | -0.94 (-1.83 - -0.04) | .04 | 1999-2012 | 4.57 (3.09-6.07) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -27.92 (-44.80 - -5.87) | .02 |
Regional | 2.94 (2.47-3.41) | <.001 | 1973-1977 | 12.80 (2.50-24.14) | .02 | 1977-2012 | 3.13 (2.88-3.38) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -36.81 (-49.61 - -20.77) | <.001 | |||
Distant | 2.35 (2.07-2.63) | <.001 | 1973-1975 | 25.14 (6.66-46.83) | .01 | 1975-1995 | 1.10 (0.72-1.49) | <.001 | 1995-2012 | 3.83 (3.42-4.25) | <.001 | 2012-2014 | -17.61 (-25.68 - -8.66) | <.001 |