Unclaimed prize information (i.e., the number of prizes still available to be won) is information commonly provided to scratch card gamblers. However, unless the number of tickets remaining to be purchased is also provided, this information is uninformative. Despite its lack of utility in assisting gamblers in choosing the most favourable type of scratch card to play, we hypothesized that unclaimed prize information would bias participants’ judgments within a scratch card gambling context. In Experiment 1 (N = 201), we showed that participants are influenced by this information such that they felt more likely to win, were more excited to play, and preferred to hypothetically purchase more of the scratch card with the greatest number of unclaimed prizes. In Experiment 2 (N = 201), we attempted to ameliorate this bias by providing participants with the number of tickets remaining to be purchased and equating the payback percentages of all three games. The bias, although attenuated, still persisted in these conditions. Finally, in Experiment 3 (N = 200), we manipulated the hypothetical scratch cards such that games with the highest number of unclaimed prizes were the least favourable, and vice versa. As in Experiment 2, participants still favoured cards with greater numbers of unclaimed prizes. Possible mechanisms underlying this bias are discussed. In conclusion, across three experiments, we demonstrate that salient unclaimed prize information is capable of exerting a strong effect over judgments related to scratch card games.
Ariely, D., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2003). Coherent arbitrariness: Stable demand curves without stable preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 73–105. CrossRef
Atlantic Lottery Corporation. (2018). Top prizes remaining. Retrieved from https://www.alc.ca/content/alc/en/our-games/scratch-n-win/top-prizes-remaining.html.
Baron, J., Beattie, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Heuristics and biases in diagnostic reasoning: II. Congruence, information, and certainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 42(1), 88–110. CrossRef
Bonner, C., & Newell, B. R. (2010). In conflict with ourselves? An investigation of heuristic and analytic processes in decision making. Memory and Cognition, 38(2), 186–196. CrossRef
British Columbia Lottery Corporation. (2018). Scratch and win unclaimed prizes. Retrieved from http://lotto.bclc.com/scratch-and-win/unclaimed-prizes.html.
Carpenter, G. S., Glazer, R., & Nakamoto, K. (1994). Meaningful brands from meaningless differentiation: The dependence on irrelevant attributes. Journal of Marketing Research, 31(3), 339–350. CrossRef
Currie, S. R., Hodgins, D. C., & Casey, D. M. (2013). Validity of the problem gambling severity index interpretive categories. Journal of Gambling Studies, 29(2), 311–327. CrossRef
Denes-Raj, V., & Epstein, S. (1994). Conflict between intuitive and rational processing: When people behave against their better judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66(5), 819–829. CrossRef
Denes-Raj, V., Epstein, S., & Cole, J. (1995). The generality of the ratio-bias phenomenon. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21(10), 1083–1092. CrossRef
DSM-5 American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders. Arlington: American Psychiatric Publishing. CrossRef
Fazio, L. K., Brashier, N. M., Payne, B. K., & Marsh, E. J. (2015). Knowledge does not protect against illusory truth. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 144(5), 993–1002. CrossRef
Ferris, J. A., & Wynne, H. J. (2001). The Canadian problem gambling index. Ottawa, ON: Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse.
Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive reflection and decision making. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 25–42. CrossRef
Garcia-Retamero, R., Galesic, M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2010). Do icon arrays help reduce denominator neglect? Medical Decision Making, 30(6), 672–684. CrossRef
Haran, U., Ritov, I., & Mellers, B. A. (2013). The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8(3), 188–201.
Harrigan, K., Dixon, M., MacLaren, V., Collins, K., & Fugelsang, J. (2011). The maximum rewards at the minimum price: Reinforcement rates and payback percentages in multi-line slot machines. Journal of Gambling Issues, 26, 11–29. CrossRef
Hasher, L., Goldstein, D., & Toppino, T. (1977). Frequency and the conference of referential validity. Journal of verbal learning and verbal behaviour, 16(1), 107–112. CrossRef
Holtgraves, T., & Skeel, J. (1992). Cognitive biases in playing the lottery: Estimating the odds and choosing the numbers. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 22(12), 934–952. CrossRef
Kirkpatrick, L. A., & Epstein, S. (1992). Cognitive-experiential self-theory and subjective probability: Further evidence for two conceptual systems. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 63(4), 534–544. CrossRef
Loto-Quebec. (2018). Prize claims status. Retrieved from https://loteries.lotoquebec.com/en/useful-information/prize-claims-status.
Meyvis, T., & Janiszewski, C. (2002). Consumers’ beliefs about product benefits: The effect of obviously irrelevant product information. Journal of Consumer Research, 28(4), 618–635. CrossRef
Miller, D. T., Turnbull, W., & McFarland, C. (1989). When coincidence is suspicious: The role of mental simulation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 57, 581–589. CrossRef
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation. (2009). OLG annual report 2008– 2009. Retrieved from http://www.olg.ca/assets/documents/annual_report/annual_report_08-09.pdf.
Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation. (2018). Instant unclaimed prizes. Retrieved from https://lottery.olg.ca/en-ca/instant-games/unclaimed-prize-information.
Opid Technologies. (2017). Scratch stats. Retrieved from http://www.scratchstats.ca.
Rogers, P., & Webley, P. (2001). “It could be us!”: Cognitive and social psychological factors in UK National Lottery play. Applied Psychology, 50(1), 181–199. CrossRef
Turner, N. E. (2010). Lottery ticket preferences as indicated by the variation in the number of winners. Journal of Gambling Studies, 26(3), 421–439. CrossRef
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131. CrossRef
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211(4481), 453–458. CrossRef
Usockem. (2016). OLG scratch and win ticket advice. Retrieved from http://www.usockem.blogspot.com.
Van Osselaer, S. M., Alba, J. W., & Manchanda, P. (2004). Irrelevant information and mediated intertemporal choice. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 14(3), 257–270. CrossRef
Western Canada Lottery Corporation. (2018). SCRATCH ‘N WIN prizes remaining. Retrieved from http://www.wclc.com/games/scratch-n-win/prizes-remaining.htm.
- Unclaimed Prize Information Biases Perceptions of Winning in Scratch Card Gambling
Alexander C. Walker
Jonathan A. Fugelsang
Derek J. Koehler
Mike J. Dixon
- Springer US
Neu im Fachgebiet Psychiatrie
Meistgelesene Bücher aus dem Fachgebiet
Mail Icon II