Background
Methods
Study participants
Anthropometric measurement
Type 2 diabetes definition
Covariates assessment
Statistical analysis
Results
Characteristics of participants
Variables | Non T2D cases (n = 9348) | Incident T2D cases (n = 614) | P value |
---|---|---|---|
Age (years) | 66.81 ± 5.55 | 66.44 ± 5.16 | 0.083 |
Female (%) | 3715(39.7) | 249(40.6) | 0.690 |
WC (cm) | 83.01 ± 9.31 | 87.13 ± 9.62 | < 0.001 |
WHtR | 0.51 ± 0.06 | 0.54 ± 0.06 | < 0.001 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 24.22 ± 3.32 | 25.86 ± 3.18 | < 0.001 |
VAI | 1.55 ± 1.31 | 1.93 ± 1.58 | < 0.001 |
ABSI | 0.078 ± 0.006 | 0.078 ± 0.006 | 0.441 |
BRI | 3.69 ± 1.15 | 4.17 ± 1.21 | < 0.001 |
Smoking (Yes, %) | |||
Current smoker | 2300(24.8) | 147(24.1) | |
Former smoker | 1319(14.2) | 84(13.7) | |
Never smoker | 5672(61.0) | 380(62.2) | 0.854 |
Alcohol consumption (Yes, %) | |||
Current drinker | 147(24.1) | 169(27.5) | |
Former drinker | 84(13.7) | 49(8.0) | |
Never drinker | 380(62.2) | 396(64.5) | 0.020 |
Physical activity (Yes, %) | 8470(90.0) | 547(89.1) | 0.213 |
Education (High school or beyond, %) | 3036(32.8) | 186(30.5) | 0.244 |
HDL-c (mmol/L) | 1.40 | 1.35 | 0.001 |
TG (mmol/L) | 1.15 | 1.36 | < 0.001 |
TC (mmol/L) | 5.10 | 5.17 | 0.019 |
SBP (mmHg) | 129.76 ± 18.28 | 133.54 ± 17.72 | < 0.001 |
DBP (mmHg) | 77.35 ± 10.84 | 79.07 ± 10.81 | < 0.001 |
Hypertention (Yes, %) | 3739(40.0) | 328(53.4) | < 0.001 |
Hyperlipidemia (Yes, %) | 4229(45.2) | 353(57.5) | < 0.001 |
FBG (mmol/L) | 5.54 ± 0.56 | 6.05 ± 0.63 | < 0.001 |
T2D family history (Yes, %) | 169(1.8) | 17(2.8) | 0.090 |
Association of anthropometric indices with incident T2D risk
Variables | Cases/Total(n) | Incidence/1000 person-years | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Men (n = 5998) | |||||
WC (cm) | |||||
< 85 | 142/3356 | 9.79 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
≥ 85 | 223/2642 | 19.57 | 1.75(1.42,2.16) | 1.73(1.40,2.14) | 1.43(1.14,1.78) |
P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
WHtR | |||||
< 0.5 | 106/2763 | 8.88 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
≥ 0.5 | 259/3235 | 18.55 | 1.91(1.52,2.39) | 1.88(1.50,2.36) | 1.43(1.22,1.82) |
P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
BMI (kg/m2) | |||||
< 24 | 98/2868 | 7.94 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
24–27.9 | 179/2467 | 16.71 | 2.09(1.63,2.67) | 2.10(1.64,2.70) | 1.56(1.21,2.02) |
≥ 28 | 88/633 | 30.82 | 4.18(3.14,5.58) | 4.21(3.14,5.64) | 2.59(1.91,3.53) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
VAI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 78/2000 | 8.99 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 99/1999 | 11.41 | 1.24(0.92,1.67) | 1.24(0.92,1.67) | 1.17(0.86,1.58) |
Tertile 3 | 188/1999 | 22.00 | 2.39(1.84,3.11) | 2.40(1.84,3.13) | 2.00(1.49,2.67) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
ABSI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 119/1999 | 13.73 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 128/1999 | 14.76 | 0.88(0.68,1.23) | 0.86(0.67,1.10) | 0.80(0.62,1.03) |
Tertile 3 | 118/2000 | 13.79 | 0.78(0.60,1.01) | 0.76(0.59,0.99) | 0.79(0.61,1.03) |
P for trend | 0.056 | 0.039 | 0.098 | ||
BRI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 93/1999 | 10.79 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 109/2000 | 12.57 | 1.43(1.06,1.92) | 1.42(1.06,1.91) | 1.14(0.84,1.54) |
Tertile 3 | 183/1999 | 21.26 | 2.32(1.77,3.05) | 2.27(1.73,2.99) | 1.60(1.20,2.13) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
Women (n = 3964) | |||||
WC (cm) | |||||
< 80 | 78/1899 | 9.50 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
≥ 80 | 171/2065 | 18.96 | 1.67(1.28,2.18) | 1.67(1.27,2.20) | 1.46(1.11,1.92) |
P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
WHtR | |||||
< 0.5 | 49/1395 | 8.11 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
≥ 0.5 | 200/2569 | 17.87 | 1.87(1.37,2.56) | 1.85(1.34,2.54) | 1.51(1.10,2.09) |
P value | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
BMI (kg/m2) | |||||
< 24 | 66/1864 | 8.15 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
24–27.9 | 121/1486 | 18.70 | 2.31(1.71,3.11) | 2.29(1.69,3.10) | 1.74(1.27,2.36) |
≥ 28 | 62/614 | 23.30 | 2.78(1.97,3.94) | 2.81(1.98,4.00) | 2.01(1.41,2.87) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | ||
VAI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 50/1322 | 8.77 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 97/1320 | 16.79 | 1.90(1.35,2.67) | 1.86(1.32,2.63) | 1.80(1.28,2.55) |
Tertile 3 | 102/1322 | 17.72 | 2.04(1.45,2.87) | 2.01(1.43,2.83) | 1.85(1.31,2.61) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | 0.003 | ||
ABSI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 85/1321 | 14.74 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 79/1321 | 13.77 | 0.79(0.58,1.07) | 0.77(0.56,1.05) | 0.73(0.53,1.00) |
Tertile 3 | 85/1322 | 14.82 | 0.76(0.56,1.03) | 0.74(0.54,1.01) | 0.83(0.61,1.41) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | 0.073 | 0.313 | ||
BRI | |||||
Tertile 1 | 46/1323 | 8.02 | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) | 1.00(Reference) |
Tertile 2 | 82/1327 | 14.05 | 1.50(1.04,2.16) | 1.42(0.98,2.05) | 1.23(0.85,1.78) |
Tertile 3 | 121/1314 | 21.38 | 2.18(1.54,3.08) | 1.98(1.39,2.82) | 1.73(1.21,2.46) |
P for trend | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | 0.001 |
ROC analysis
Variables | Men (n = 5998) | Women (n = 3964) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
AUC (95% CI) | P Value | AUC (95% CI) | P value | |
WC | 0.629*(0.600,0.659) | < 0.001 | 0.616 (0.581,0.651) | < 0.001 |
WHtR | 0.629*(0.600,0.658) | < 0.001 | 0.609**(0.574,0.644) | < 0.001 |
BMI | 0.655 (0.626,0.684) | < 0.001 | 0.635 (0.602,0.667) | < 0.001 |
VAI | 0.609*(0.578,0.639) | < 0.001 | 0.582* (0.548,0.617) | < 0.001 |
ABSI | 0.507*(0.477,0.538) | 0.631 | 0.503*(0.465,0.540) | 0.882 |
BRI | 0.629*(0.600,0.658) | < 0.001 | 0.609**(0.574,0.644) | < 0.001 |
Optimal cutoff points of anthropometric indices in T2D risk prediction
Variables | Men | Women | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cutoff | Sensitivity (%) | Specifity (%) | Youden index | Cutoff | Sensitivity (%) | Specifity (%) | Youden index | |
WC (cm) | 84.90 | 67.1 | 53.2 | 0.203 | 81.10 | 65.9 | 52.1 | 0.180 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 25.78 | 54.2 | 71.3 | 0.255 | 24.86 | 65.5 | 58.2 | 0.237 |
WHtR | 0.512 | 64.4 | 55.5 | 0.199 | 0.514 | 72.7 | 45.6 | 0.183 |
VAI | 1.335 | 51.2 | 68.6 | 0.198 | 1.225 | 81.9 | 32.1 | 0.146 |
BRI | 3.584 | 64.7 | 55.2 | 0.199 | 3.618 | 72.7 | 45.6 | 0.183 |