Background
Methods
Study Population
Sexual risk behaviours
Circumcision
STIs
HIV incidence
Population attributable risk
HIV costs
Results
Prevalence of risk factors
Prevalence of behavior n (%)(1)
| Number of HIV cases (person-years) | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
---|---|---|---|
No UAI | 521 (37) | 7 (2071.4) | 1 |
UAI by reported HIV status of sexual partners
(2)
| |||
UAI with HIV-negative only (serosorting) | 466 (33) | 14 (1958.7) | 2.17 (0.88,5.39) |
UAI with some unknown HIV status | 362 (25) | 13 (879.8) | 4.44 (1.77,11.16) |
UAI with any HIV-positive | 77 (5) | 13 (246.3) | 16.12 (6.42,40.46) |
UAI by sexual position
(2)
| |||
Insertive UAI only (strategic positioning) | 225 (16) | 4 (792.1) | 1.54 (0.45,5.26) |
Receptive with withdrawal (withdrawal) | 204 (14) | 11 (662.0) | 5.00 (1.94,12.92) |
Receptive with ejaculation | 426 (33) | 25 (1627.2) | 4.65 (2.01,10.76) |
Circumcision status
(3)
| |||
Uncircumcised men | 488 (34) | 17 (16.7) | 1.22 (0.67,2.22) |
Number of sexual partners
| |||
10+ casual sexual partners in the last 6 m | 528 (37%) | 20 (1370.8) | 2.1 (1.12-3.74) |
STIs
(4)
| |||
Anal warts between study visit | 59 (4) | 8 (197.1) | 5.22 (2.44,11.18), |
Anal gonorrhoea at study visit | 4 (<1) | 3 (42.8) | 8.50 (2.60,27.95) |
UAI by reported HIV status of sexual partners
UAI by sexual position
Number of casual partners
Circumcision status
STIs
Hazard ratios
UAI by reported HIV status of sexual partners
UAI by sexual position
Number of casual partners
Circumcision status
STIs
Population attributable risk
Risk factor | PAR (95% CI) Crude model | PAR (95% CI) Adjusted model | Average annual number of HIV cases | Average lifetime HIV costs (range)(1)AUD$million, 2010 dollars | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% discounting | 3% discounting | 5% discounting | ||||
All risk factors
| - | 0.91 (0.81,0.97) | 637 | 434 (403-471) | 274 (249-304) | 180 (160-205) |
UAI by HIV status of sexual partners
(2)
| 0.85 (0.75,0.94) | 0.77 (0.66,0.89) | 539 | 367 (341-399) | 232 (211-257) | 152 (136-174) |
UAI with HIV-negative only (serosorting) | 0.15 (0.11,0.22) | 0.10 (0.07,0.19) | 70 | 48 (44-52) | 30 (27-33) | 20 (18-23) |
UAI with some unknown HIV status | 0.34 (0.27,0.43) | 0.33 (0.26,0.42) | 231 | 157 (146-171) | 99 (90-110) | 65 (58-74) |
UAI with any HIV-positive | 0.36 (0.26,0.45) | 0.34 (0.24,0.44) | 238 | 162 (151-176) | 102 (93-114) | 67 (60-77) |
Circumcision status
(3)
| ||||||
Uncircumcision | 0.08 (0.04,0.16) | 0.07 (0.03,0.14) | 49 | 33 (31-36) | 21 (19-23) | 14 (12-16) |
Number of sexual partners
| ||||||
10+ casual sexual partners in the last 6 m | 0.26 (0.18,0.36) | 0.19 (0.09,0.34) | 133 | 91 (84-98) | 57 (52-64) | 38 (33-43) |
STIs
(4)
| ||||||
Anal warts between study visits | 0.14 (0.10,0.18) | 0.13 (0.09,0.19) | 91 | 62 (58-67) | 39 (36-43) | 26 (23-29) |
Anal gonorrhoea at study visit | 0.06 (0.04,0.07) | 0.02 (0.01,0.03) | 14 | 10 (9-10) | 6 (5-7) | 4 (4-5) |
Risk factor | PAR (95% CI) Crude model | PAR (95% CI) Adjusted model | Average annual number of HIV cases | Average lifetime HIV costs (range)(1)AUD$million, 2010 dollars | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1% discounting | 3% discounting | 5% discounting | ||||
All risk factors
| 0.94 (0.82,0.98) | 658 | 448 (416-487) | 283 (257-314) | 186 (165-212) | |
UAI by sexual position
(2)
| 0.78 (0.69,0.89) | 0.73 (0.66,0.85) | 511 | 348 (323-378) | 220 (200-244) | 144 (128-165) |
Insertive UAI only (strategic positioning) | 0.12 (0.07,0.19) | 0.04 (0.02,0.10) | 28 | 19 (18-21) | 12 (11-13) | 8 (7-9) |
Receptive UAI | 0.66 (0.54,0.76) | 0.69 (0.58,0.78) | 483 | 329 (305-357) | 208 (189-231) | 136 (121-156) |
Receptive with withdrawal | 0.21 (0.16,0.28) | 0.28 (0.20,0.37) | 196 | 134 (124-145) | 84 (77-94) | 55 (49-63) |
Receptive with ejaculation | 0.45 (0.35,0.55) | 0.41 (0.32,0.51) | 287 | 196 (182-212) | 123 (112-137) | 81 (72-92) |
Circumcision status
(3)
| ||||||
Uncircumcision | 0.08 (0.04,0.16) | 0.07 (0.03,0.15) | 49 | 33 (31-36) | 21 (19-23) | 14 (12-16) |
Number of sexual partners
| ||||||
10+ casual sexual partners in the last 6 m | 0.26 (0.18,0.36) | 0.25 (0.14,0.42) | 175 | 119 (111-129) | 75 (68-84) | 49 (44-56) |
STIs
(4)
| ||||||
Anal warts between study visits | 0.14 (0.10,0.18) | 0.12 (0.08,0.18) | 84 | 57 (53-62) | 36 (33-40) | 24 (21-27) |
Anal gonorrhoea at study visit | 0.06 (0.04,0.07) | 0.02 (0.01,0.03) | 14 | 10 (9-10) | 6 (5-7) | 4 (4-5) |