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Erschienen in: Clinical Research in Cardiology 2/2020

24.06.2019 | Original Paper

Validation of National Cardiovascular Data Registry risk models for mortality, bleeding and acute kidney injury in interventional cardiology at a German Heart Center

verfasst von: Georg Wolff, Yingfeng Lin, Julia Quade, Selina Bader, Lucin Kosejian, Maximilian Brockmeyer, Athanasios Karathanos, Claudio Parco, Torben Krieger, Yvonne Heinen, Stefan Perings, Alexander Albert, Andrea Icks, Malte Kelm, Volker Schulze

Erschienen in: Clinical Research in Cardiology | Ausgabe 2/2020

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Abstract

Background and purpose

The National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk scores for mortality, bleeding and acute kidney injury (AKI) are accurate outcome predictors of coronary catheterization procedures in North American populations. However, their application in German clinical practice remained elusive and we thus aimed to verify their use.

Methods

NCDR scores for mortality, bleeding and AKI and corresponding clinical outcomes were retrospectively assessed in patients undergoing catheterization for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) or for elective coronary procedures at a German Heart Center from 2014 to 2017. Risk model performance was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristic curves (discrimination) and graphical analysis/logistic regression (calibration).

Results

A total of 1637 patients were included, procedures were performed for STEMI (565 patients, 34.5%), NSTEMI (572 patients, 34.9%) and elective purposes (500 patients, 30.5%); 6% (13% of STEMI and 5% of NSTEMI patients) presented in cardiogenic shock and 3% with resuscitated cardiac arrest. Radial access was used in 38% of procedures and cross-over was necessary in 5%; PCI was performed in 60% of procedures. In-hospital mortality was 6.3% (STEMI 14.5%; NSTEMI 3.7%; elective 0%) and major bleedings occurred in 5.6% (STEMI 10.6%; NSTEMI 5.4%; elective 0.2%); AKI was detected in 18.1% of patients (STEMI 23.7%; NSTEMI 27.3%; elective 1.4%), amounting to KDIGO stage I/II/III in 11.5%/3.5%/3.2%. NCDR risk models discriminated very well for mortality [AUC 0.93 with 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91–0.95] and well for major bleeding (AUC 0.82, CI 0.78–0.86) and any AKI (AUC 0.83, CI 0.81–0.86). Discrimination in the subgroup of patients with PCI was comparable (mortality: AUC 0.90; major bleeding: AUC 0.78; any AKI: AUC 0.79). However, calibration showed considerable underestimation of mortality and AKI in high-risk patients, while major bleeding was consistently overestimated (Hosmer–Lemeshow p < 0.02 for all outcomes).

Conclusions

The NCDR risk models showed excellent performance in discriminating high-risk from low-risk patients in contemporary German interventional cardiology. Model calibration for adverse event probability prediction, however, is limited and demands recalibration, especially in high-risk patients.

Graphic abstract

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Metadaten
Titel
Validation of National Cardiovascular Data Registry risk models for mortality, bleeding and acute kidney injury in interventional cardiology at a German Heart Center
verfasst von
Georg Wolff
Yingfeng Lin
Julia Quade
Selina Bader
Lucin Kosejian
Maximilian Brockmeyer
Athanasios Karathanos
Claudio Parco
Torben Krieger
Yvonne Heinen
Stefan Perings
Alexander Albert
Andrea Icks
Malte Kelm
Volker Schulze
Publikationsdatum
24.06.2019
Verlag
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Erschienen in
Clinical Research in Cardiology / Ausgabe 2/2020
Print ISSN: 1861-0684
Elektronische ISSN: 1861-0692
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00392-019-01506-x

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