Introduction
Current study
Method
Participants
Measures
Conduct Problem trajectories
Outcomes
Confounders
Analytic procedure
Correcting for classification errors
Attrition analyses and imputation of missing data
n
| Data availability |
χ
2
|
p
| |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No CP data (%) | CP data but <6 outcomes (%) | 6+ outcomes plus CP data (%) | ||||
Gender | 93.7 | <0.001 | ||||
Male | 7,220 | 3,583 (53.0) | 2,180 (55.3) | 1,457 (44.5) | ||
Female | 6,756 | 3,175 (47.0) | 1,762 (44.7) | 1,819 (55.5) | ||
Housing tenure | 864.6 | <0.001 | ||||
Mortgaged/owned | 9,559 | 3,674 (61.6) | 3,089 (80.3) | 2,796 (87.0) | ||
Private rented | 1,384 | 825 (13.8) | 333 (8.7) | 226 (7.0) | ||
Subsidized rented | 2,082 | 1,465 (24.6) | 425 (11.1) | 192 (6.0) | ||
Parity | 96.5 | <0.001 | ||||
First born | 5,770 | 2,475 (42.0) | 1,713 (44.7) | 1,582 (49.4) | ||
Second born | 4,539 | 2,028 (34.4) | 1,389 (36.2) | 1,122 (35.0) | ||
Third born plus | 2,618 | 1,388 (23.6) | 731 (19.1) | 499 (15.6) | ||
Home overcrowding | 237.1 | <0.001 | ||||
≤1 person/room | 11,924 | 5,200 (89.4) | 3,637 (95.7) | 3,087 (97.0) | ||
>1 person/room | 878 | 616 (10.6) | 165 (4.3) | 97 (3.1) | ||
Maternal education | 875.3 | <0.001 | ||||
A level or higher | 4,392 | 1,322 (24.7) | 1,442 (37.7) | 1,628 (50.3) | ||
O-level | 4,296 | 1,789 (33.5) | 1,418 (37.1) | 1,089 (33.6) | ||
<O-level | 3,728 | 2,238 (41.8) | 967 (25.3) | 523 (16.1) | ||
Household income | 355.2 | <0.001 | ||||
Top 20 % | 1,992 | 932 (29.5) | 693 (18.8) | 367 (11.9) | ||
Middle 60 % | 5,937 | 1,782 (56.3) | 2,220 (60.2) | 1,935 (62.7) | ||
Lowest 20 % | 2,010 | 449 (14.2) | 777 (21.1) | 784 (25.4) | ||
Social class | 345.5 | <0.001 | ||||
Professional/managerial and technical | 6,339 | 2,183 (46.1) | 2,051 (56.5) | 2,105 (67.2) | ||
Skilled non-manual or lower | 5,162 | 2,556 (53.9) | 1,580 (43.5) | 1,026 (32.8) | ||
Marital status at enrolment | 380.4 | <0.001 | ||||
Married (incl. divorced/widowed) | 10,586 | 4,404 (73.7) | 3,316 (85.9) | 2,866 (88.3) | ||
Unmarried | 2,499 | 1,575 (26.3) | 544 (14.1) | 380 (11.7) | ||
Maternal age at delivery | 851.7 | <0.001 | ||||
<25 years | 3,337 | 2,274 (33.7) | 665 (16.9) | 398 (12.2) | ||
25–29 | 5,403 | 2,551 (37.8) | 1,612 (40.9) | 1,240 (37.9) | ||
30–34 | 3,850 | 1,432 (21.2) | 1,230 (31.2) | 1,188 (36.3) | ||
35+ | 1,386 | 501 (7.4) | 435 (11.0) | 450 (13.7) |
Results
Outcome frequencies by class
Available, n
| Rate of outcome (%) | CP class under modal class assignment |
χ
2
|
p
| ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low (%) | CL (%) | AO (%) | EOP (%) | |||||
Alcohol use | 3,274 | 168 (5.1) | 110 (4.5) | 18 (4.9) | 16 (6.9) | 24 (9.5) | 13.2 | 0.004 |
Smoking | 3,292 | 542 (16.5) | 330 (13.6) | 72 (19.4) | 62 (26.4) | 78 (30.6) | 70.9 | <0.001 |
Cannabis use | 3,270 | 125 (3.8) | 71 (2.9) | 13 (3.5) | 13 (5.6) | 28 (11.0) | 43.0 | <0.001 |
Illicit drugs | 3,251 | 393 (12.1) | 267 (11.1) | 50 (13.7) | 34 (14.8) | 42 (16.7) | 9.7 | 0.021 |
Self-reported offenses | 3,165 | 513 (16.2) | 349 (14.8) | 62 (17.8) | 37 (16.5) | 65 (26.9) | 24.1 | <0.001 |
Criminal involvement | 3,111 | 449 (14.4) | 301 (13.0) | 59 (17.0) | 33 (15.1) | 56 (24.0) | 23.1 | <0.001 |
Self-harm | 3,542 | 317 (9.0) | 211 (8.1) | 41 (10.3) | 27 (10.4) | 38 (13.6) | 11.2 | 0.011 |
Risky sexual behavior | 3,210 | 360 (11.2) | 233 (9.8) | 45 (12.6) | 36 (15.9) | 46 (18.8) | 24.7 | <0.001 |
Gambling | 2,996 | 256 (8.5) | 181 (8.1) | 32 (9.5) | 16 (7.4) | 27 (12.4) | 5.4 | 0.148 |
Depression | 3,542 | 266 (7.5) | 171 (6.6) | 33 (8.3) | 24 (9.2) | 38 (13.6) | 19.7 | <0.001 |
Anxiety | 3,542 | 371 (10.5) | 248 (9.5) | 45 (11.3) | 30 (11.5) | 48 (17.2) | 16.5 | 0.001 |
Prediction of outcomes by CP class
CL versus low | AO versus low | EOP versus low | EOP versus CL | EOP versus AO | AO versus CL |
F statistic, omnibus p
| |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcohol use | 0.94 [0.44, 1.99] | 1.72 [0.92, 3.24] |
2.25 [1.49, 3.41]
|
2.38 [1.05, 5.56]
| 1.30 [0.65, 2.63] | 1.84 [0.67, 5.03] | 5.69, 0.0007 |
Smoking |
1.52 [1.01, 2.29]
|
2.44 [1.71, 3.49]
|
3.06 [2.33, 4.02]
|
2.00 [1.25, 3.23]
| 1.25 [0.80, 1.96] | 1.61 [0.91, 2.84] | 28.0, <0.0001 |
Cannabis use | 1.35 [0.61, 2.98] |
2.39 [1.21, 4.71]
|
3.84 [2.57, 5.74]
|
2.86 [1.27, 6.25]
| 1.61 [0.76, 3.45] | 1.77 [0.61, 5.17] | 14.5, <0.0001 |
Illicit drugs | 1.39 [0.93, 2.06] |
1.74 [1.13, 2.69]
|
2.19 [1.61, 2.98]
| 1.59 [0.97, 2.56] | 1.25 [0.74, 2.13] | 1.26 [0.71, 2.22] | 11.1, <0.0001 |
Self-reported offenses | 1.35 [0.96, 1.91] | 1.29 [0.76, 2.18] |
2.47 [1.85, 3.29]
|
1.82 [1.19, 2.78]
|
1.92 [1.03, 3.57]
| 0.96 [0.49, 1.87] | 13.1, <0.0001 |
Criminal involvement | 1.40 [0.99, 2.00] |
1.52 [1.00, 2.31]
|
2.43 [1.86, 3.19]
|
1.72 [1.15, 2.63]
| 1.59 [0.97, 2.63] | 1.08 [0.62, 1.89] | 15.9, <0.0001 |
Self-harm | 1.35 [0.86, 2.11] | 1.34 [0.69, 2.59] |
1.87 [1.29, 2.70]
| 1.39 [0.79, 2.44] | 1.39 [0.64, 3.03] | 0.99 [0.44, 2.24] | 4.11, 0.0065 |
Risky sexual behavior | 1.29 [0.85, 1.96] |
1.76 [1.13, 2.72]
|
2.04 [1.51, 2.77]
| 1.59 [0.96, 2.63] | 1.16 [0.68, 2.00] | 1.36 [0.73, 2.53] | 9.29, <0.0001 |
Gambling | 1.19 [0.74, 1.93] | 1.09 [0.58, 2.04] |
1.53 [1.03, 2.26]
| 1.28 [0.72, 2.27] | 1.41 [0.67, 2.94] | 0.91 [0.40, 2.08] | 1.67, 0.1712 |
Depression | 1.24 [0.75, 2.04] | 1.37 [0.74, 2.57] |
2.14 [1.49, 3.08]
| 1.72 [0.95, 3.13] | 1.56 [0.76, 3.23] | 1.11 [0.48, 2.54] | 6.05, 0.0004 |
Anxiety | 1.25 [0.81, 1.93] | 1.15 [0.61, 2.18] |
2.12 [1.53, 2.94]
|
1.69 [1.01, 2.86]
| 1.85 [0.88, 3.85] | 0.92 [0.40, 2.12] | 6.64, 0.0002 |
CL versus low | AO versus low | EOP versus low | EOP versus CL | EOP versus AO | AO versus CL |
F statistic, omnibus p
| |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alcohol use | 0.86 [0.39, 1.86] | 1.68 [0.89, 3.20] |
1.91 [1.21, 3.01]
| 2.22 [0.95, 5.26] | 1.14 [0.55, 2.33] | 1.96 [0.70, 5.50] | 3.32, 0.019 |
Smoking | 1.33 [0.86, 2.05] |
2.41 [1.67, 3.49]
|
2.48 [1.83, 3.36]
|
1.89 [1.12, 3.13]
| 1.03 [0.65, 1.64] |
1.81 [1.00, 3.30]
| 16.8, <0.001 |
Cannabis use | 1.24 [0.53, 2.91] |
2.64 [1.33, 5.23]
|
3.18 [1.99, 5.10]
|
2.56 [1.08, 6.25]
| 1.20 [0.55, 2.63] | 2.13 [0.70, 6.52] | 8.88, <0.001 |
Illicit drugs | 1.29 [0.84, 1.97] |
1.70 [1.09, 2.66]
|
1.82 [1.30, 2.55]
| 1.41 [0.85, 2.33] | 1.06 [0.62, 1.85] | 1.32 [0.73, 2.38] | 5.85, <0.001 |
Self-reported offenses | 1.26 [0.88, 1.82] | 1.31 [0.76, 2.25] |
2.15 [1.56, 2.97]
|
1.69 [1.08, 2.70]
| 1.64 [0.86, 3.13] | 1.04 [0.52, 2.08] | 7.44, <0.001 |
Criminal involvement | 1.16 [0.79, 1.71] | 1.49 [0.96, 2.31] |
1.86 [1.36, 2.54]
|
1.61 [1.01, 2.56]
| 1.25 [0.73, 2.13] | 1.28 [0.70, 2.34] | 6.10, <0.001 |
Self-harm | 1.35 [0.84, 2.17] | 1.24 [0.62, 2.49] |
1.73 [1.16, 2.58]
| 1.28 [0.72, 2.27] | 1.39 [0.61, 3.13] | 0.92 [0.39, 2.14] | 2.52, 0.057 |
Risky sexual behavior | 1.16 [0.74, 1.81] |
1.69 [1.07, 2.67]
|
1.80 [1.28, 2.52]
| 1.56 [0.92, 2.63] | 1.06 [0.61, 1.85] | 1.46 [0.77, 2.80] | 5.35, 0.001 |
Gambling | 1.02 [0.62, 1.68] | 1.02 [0.54, 1.90] | 1.19 [0.78, 1.79] | 1.16 [0.64, 2.13] | 1.16 [0.55, 2.50] | 1.00 [0.43, 2.31] | 0.21, 0.891 |
Depression | 1.21 [0.72, 2.04] | 1.25 [0.64, 2.42] |
1.91 [1.27, 2.86]
| 1.59 [0.85, 2.94] | 1.54 [0.71, 3.33] | 1.03 [0.43, 2.45] | 3.28, 0.020 |
Anxiety | 1.21 [0.77, 1.89] | 1.05 [0.54, 2.05] |
1.85 [1.29, 2.64]
| 1.54 [0.90, 2.63] | 1.75 [0.82, 3.70] | 0.87 [0.37, 2.05] | 3.44, 0.016 |