Predicting adult emotional and behavioral problems from externalizing problem trajectories in a 24-year longitudinal study

The aim of this study was to examine the prediction of adult behavioral and emotional problems from developmental trajectories of externalizing behavior in a 24-years longitudinal population-based study of 2,076 children. The adult psychiatric outcome of these trajectories has not yet been examined. Trajectories of the four externalizing behavior types: aggression, opposition, property violations and status violations were determined separately through latent class growth analysis using data of five waves, covering ages 4–18 years. We used regression analyses to determine the associations between children’s trajectories and adults’ psychiatric problems based on the Adult Self-Report. The developmental trajectories of the four types of externalizing behavior mostly predicted intrusive, aggressive and rule-breaking behavior in adulthood. Non-destructive behaviors in childhood such as opposition and status violations predict adult problems to a larger extent than destructive behaviors such as aggression and property violations. In general, children who develop through high-level trajectories are likely to suffer from both internalizing and externalizing problem behavior in adulthood, regardless the direction of change (i.e. increasing/decreasing/persisting) of the high-level trajectory. We can conclude that the level rather than the developmental change of externalizing behavior problems has a larger impact on adult outcome.