Abstract
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic, computer simulations are used to predict the evolution of the virus propagation and to evaluate the prospective effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions. As such, the corresponding mathematical models and their simulations are central tools to guide political decision-making. Typically, ODE-based models are considered, in which fractions of infected and healthy individuals change deterministically and continuously over time.
In this work, we translate an ODE-based COVID-19 spreading model from literature to a stochastic multi-agent system and use a contact network to mimic complex interaction structures. We observe a large dependency of the epidemic’s dynamics on the structure of the underlying contact graph, which is not adequately captured by existing ODE-models. For instance, existence of super-spreaders leads to a higher infection peak but a lower death toll compared to interaction structures without super-spreaders. Overall, we observe that the interaction structure has a crucial impact on the spreading dynamics, which exceeds the effects of other parameters such as the basic reproduction number \(R_0\).
We conclude that deterministic models fitted to COVID-19 outbreak data have limited predictive power or may even lead to wrong conclusions while stochastic models taking interaction structure into account offer different and probably more realistic epidemiological insights.
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Notes
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Available at .
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At the time of finalizing this manuscript, the model of Khailaie et al. seems to be updated in a similar way. However, it also became more complex (see
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The number of fatalities in the figures is difficult to see, but it is (in the time limit) proportional to the number of recovered nodes.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Luca Bortolussi and Thilo Krüger for helpful comments regarding the manuscript. This work was partially funded by the DFG project MULTIMODE.
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Großmann, G., Backenköhler, M., Wolf, V. (2020). Importance of Interaction Structure and Stochasticity for Epidemic Spreading: A COVID-19 Case Study. In: Gribaudo, M., Jansen, D.N., Remke, A. (eds) Quantitative Evaluation of Systems. QEST 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12289. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59854-9_16
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