Abstract
A series of 100 patients with thoracic esophageal cancer who underwent subtotal esophagectomy through a right thoractomy between 1985 and 1989, were statistically analyzed to assess the risk factors predicting hospital mortality from complications. Hospital mortality was termed as “complication death”, and the analyzed factors were age, pulmonary function [% vital capacity (%VC) or % forced expiratory volume1.0 (%FEV1.0)], cardiac function [ECG and Master test], renal function [creatinine clearance (CCR)], hepatic function [15′ indocyanine green test (R15·ICG)], diabetes mellitus [75 g oral glucose tolerance test (75OGTT)], depth of tumor invasion [T-factor], and the type of operative procedure [operation]. Each patient was scored according to risk severity on a scale from 0–3, with the higher numbers representing higher risk. Patients not succumbing to complication death had less than 8 points in the total score, while those who suffered a complication death had 8 or more points. Through stepwise logistic regression analysis, we produced a prediction formula. In cases where eight or more points are scored by the semi-quantitative analysis, or 0 or more, by the prediction formula, the operative procedure should be changed to a less radical one for improved prognosis. The introduction of this semi-quantitative analysis for postoperative risk reduced the incidence of complication death from 6% to 3%, and of hospital mortality from 13% to 3%.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
International Union Against Cancer (1987) Oesophagus. In: Hermanek P, Sobin LH (eds) TNM Classification of Malignant Tumours Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 40–42
Kakegawa T, Fujita H, Yamana H (1986) Surgery of the thoracic esophageal cancer (in Japanese). Shyokaki Geka (Gastroenterol Surg) 11:801–808
Yamana H, Kakegawa T, Fujita H, Sakamoto K, Shirozu G, Bekki T, Minami T (1986) Surgical indication of esophageal carcinoma. Excerpta Medica 40:91–92
Fujita H, Kawahara H, Yamana H, Shirozu G, Yoshimura Y, Minami T, Negoto Y, Irie H, Shima I, Machi J Kakegawa T (1988) Mediastinal lymph node dissection procedure during esophageal cancer operation—carefully considered for preserving respiratory function. Jpn J Surg 18:31–34
Siewert JR, Hölscher AH, Dittler HJ (1990) Preoperative staging and risk analysis in esophageal carcinoma. Hepatogastroenterology 37:382–387
Hioki K (1988) Preoperative assessment of risk factors and characteristic patterns of stress responses to esophageal and/or gastric cancer surgery (in Japanese). Nippon Shyokaki Geka Gakkai Zasshi (Jpn J Gastroenterol Surg) 21:779–788
Saito T, Zeze K, Kuwahara A, Miyahara M, Shimoda K, Hirao E, Kaketani K, Shigemitsu Y, Kobayashi M (1989) Prediction of operative mortality by a discriminant analysis for organ functions in patients with esophageal cancer—Organ function index—(in Japanese with English abstract). Nippon Kyobu Geka Gakkai Zasshi (J Jpn Assoc Thorac Surg) 37:2351–2358
Saito T, Zeze K, Kuwahara A, Hirao E, Shimoda K, Kawano K, Kobayashi M (1988) Host defense index predicting the risk of operative mortality in esophageal cancer patients (in Japanese with English abstract). Nippon Geka Gakkai Zasshi (J Jpn Surg Soc) 89:21–29
Kakegawa T, Yamana H, Fujita H, Shirozu G (1991) Recent surgical treatment for thoracic esophageal carcinoma (in Japanese with English abstract). Kyobu Geka (Jpn J Thorac Surg) 44:1132–1140
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhang, GH., Fujita, H., Yamana, H. et al. A prediction of hospital mortality after surgical treatment for esophageal cancer. Surg Today 24, 122–127 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02473392
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02473392