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Erschienen in:
01.10.2015 | Original Article
Three linked nomograms for predicting biochemical failure in prostate cancer treated with radiotherapy plus androgen deprivation therapy
Erschienen in: Strahlentherapie und Onkologie | Ausgabe 10/2015
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Background
Nomograms were established to predict biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radiotherapy (RT) with a low weight of the characteristic variables of RT and androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). Our aim is to provide a new stratified tool for predicting BCR at 4 and 7 years in patients treated using RT with radical intent.
Materials and methods
A retrospective, nonrandomized analysis was performed on 5044 prostate cancer (PCa) patients with median age 70 years, who received RT—with or without ADT—between November 1992 and May 2007. Median follow-up was 5.5 years. BCR was defined as a rise in serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) of 2 ng/ml over the post-treatment PSA nadir. Univariate association between predictor variables and BCR was assessed by the log-rank test, and three linked nomograms were created for multivariate prognosis of BCR-free survival. Each nomogram corresponds to a category of the Gleason score—either 6,7, or 8–10—and all of them were created from a single proportional hazards regression model stratified also by months of ADT (0, 1–6, 7–12, 13–24, 25–36, 36–60). The performance of this model was analyzed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.
Results
Initial PSA, clinical stage, and RT dose were significant variables (p < 0.01). The model showed a good calibration. The concordance probability was 0.779, improving those obtained with other nomograms (0.587, 0.571, 0.554) in the database. Survival curves showed best clinical utility in a comparison with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk groups.
Conclusion
For each Gleason score category, the nomogram provides information on the benefit of adding ADT to a specific RT dose.