Recently, the triglyceride-lowering omega-3 fatty acid icosapent ethyl and the low-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol-lowering (LDL-C) PCSK9 inhibitors evolocumab and alirocumab emerged as add-on statin treatments to reduce the risk of acute cardiovascular events in dyslipidaemia patients. |
The developed Markov model reveals that icosapent ethyl is cost effective for primary and secondary cardiovascular prevention, whilst PCSK9 inhibitors are not. |
Subgroup analyses demonstrate especially favourable clinical economics in high-risk populations, e.g., patients with elevated LDL-C levels (≥ 100 mg/dL or 2.6 mmol/L) for PCSK9 inhibitors or patients with elevated triglycerides (≥ 200 mg/dL or 2.3 mmol/L) and low high-density-lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) levels (≤ 35 mg/dL or 0.9 mmol/L) for icosapent ethyl. |
1 Introduction
2 Data and Methods
2.1 Model Structure
2.2 Evaluated Treatment Options
2.3 Comparator
2.4 Transition Probabilities
Cholesterol-lowering strategy | Triglyceride-lowering strategy | Distribution | References | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ezetimibe | Evolocumab | Alirocumab | Icosapent Ethyl | Fenofibrate | |||
Hazard ratios | |||||||
Alive without CVD (primary prevention) | |||||||
Non-fatal MI | NAa | NAa | NAa | 0.78 (0.67–0.90) | 0.98 (0.84–1.13) | Normal | |
CVD death | NAa | NAa | NAa | 0.90 (0.77–1.04) | 0.92 (0.78–1.06) | Normal | |
Non-CVD death | NAa | NAa | NAa | 1.14 (0.97–1.31) | 1.03 (0.87–1.18) | Normal | |
Non-fatal stroke | NAa | NAa | NAa | 0.81 (0.69–0.93) | 1.13 (0.96–1.29) | Normal | |
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | NAa | NAa | NAa | 0.76 (0.64–0.87) | 1.05 (0.89–1.21) | Normal | |
Coronary revascularisation | NAa | NAa | NAa | 0.76 (0.64–0.87) | 1.06 (0.90–1.21) | Normal | |
Alive with CVD (secondary prevention) | |||||||
Non-fatal MI | 0.87 (0.80–0.95) | 0.72 (0.64–0.81) | 0.86 (0.77–0.96) | 0.68 (0.58–0.79) | 0.88 (0.75–1.01) | Normal | |
CVD death | 1.00 (0.89–1.13) | 1.05 (0.88–1.25) | 0.88 (0.74–1.05) | 0.79 (0.67–0.91) | 0.82 (0.70–0.95) | Normal | |
Non-CVD death | 0.98 (0.90–1.06) | 1.04 (0.91–1.19) | 0.78 (0.66–0.94) | 1.01 (0.85–1.16) | 0.92 (0.79–1.06) | Normal | |
Non-fatal stroke | 0.86 (0.73–1.00) | 0.91 (0.78–1.07) | 0.73 (0.57–0.93) | 0.71 (0.60–0.82) | 1.01 (0.86–1.17) | Normal | |
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | 1.06 (0.85–1.33) | 0.99 (0.82–1.18) | 0.61 (0.41–0.92) | 0.67 (0.57–0.77) | 0.94 (0.80–1.08) | Normal | |
Coronary revascularisation | 0.96 (0.90–1.02) | 0.78 (0.71–0.86) | 0.88 (0.79–0.97) | 0.66 (0.56–0.75) | 0.94 (0.80–1.08) | Normal | |
Costs | |||||||
Annual treatment cost | 346 | 4467 | 4.412 | 2064 | 141 | Fixed | [31] |
Annual statin cost | 357 | Fixed | [31] | ||||
Alive without CVD | 2497 (± 25%) | Gamma | [26] | ||||
Alive with CVD | 3466 (± 25%) | Gamma | |||||
Non-fatal MI | 7842 (± 25%) | Gamma | |||||
Non-fatal stroke | 11,512 (± 25%) | Gamma | |||||
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | 3517 (± 25%) | Gamma | [26] | ||||
Coronary revascularisation | 7337 (± 25%) | Gamma | [26] | ||||
Non-CVD death | 2734 (± 25%) | Gamma | |||||
CVD death | 6291 (± 25%) | Gamma | |||||
Utilities | |||||||
Alive without CVD | |||||||
65–70 years | 0.7395 (0.7385–0.7415) | Beta | [32] | ||||
70+ years | 0.6745 (0.6725–0.6770) | Beta | [32] | ||||
Alive with CVD | |||||||
65–70 years | 0.6595 (0.6585–0.6615) | Beta | |||||
70+ years | 0.5945 (0.5925–0.5970) | Beta | |||||
Decrements | |||||||
Non-fatal MI | 0.04 (0.02–0.05) | Gamma | [49] | ||||
Non-fatal stroke | 0.12 (0.09–0.16) | Gamma | [49] | ||||
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | 0.09 (0.06–0.13) | Gamma | [49] | ||||
Coronary revascularisation | 0.01 (0.01–0.03) | Gamma | [49] | ||||
Others | |||||||
Discount rate | 3.5% (2–5) | Fixed | [24] | ||||
Annual CVD risk increase | 14% (12–14) | Fixed | [23] | ||||
Annual non-CVD risk increase | 10% (8–12) | Fixed | [23] | ||||
Cohort | 1000 patients | Fixed | Assumption | ||||
Starting age | 63 years | Fixed | |||||
Time horizon | Lifetime: 20 years | Fixed | [24] |
2.5 Model Population
2.6 Costs
2.7 Utilities
2.8 Outcomes
2.9 Sensitivity, Scenario, Willingness-to-Pay, and Pricing Analyses
3 Results
3.1 Base Case Analysis
3.1.1 Cholesterol-Lowering Strategy
3.1.2 Triglyceride-Lowering Strategy
Cholesterol-lowering strategy | Triglyceride-lowering strategy | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ezetimibe | Evolocumab | Alirocumab | Icosapent ethyl | Fenofibrate | |
Primary prevention | |||||
Incremental LYs | a | a | a | 0.90 | 0.84 |
Incremental QALYs | a | a | a | 0.79 | 0.62 |
Incremental costs (£) | a | a | a | 15,421 | − 6167 |
ICER (£ per LY) | a | a | a | 17,121 | − 7356 |
ICER (£ per QALY) | a | a | a | 19,485 | − 9932 |
Number needed to treat (NNT) | |||||
Non-fatal MI | a | a | a | 1.6 | 3.3 |
Non-fatal stroke | a | a | a | 5.6 | 16.3 |
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | a | a | a | 4.6 | 4.4 |
Coronary revascularisation | a | a | a | 1.3 | 1.2 |
CVD death | a | a | a | 3.9 | 5.0 |
Non-CVD death | a | a | a | 41.7 | 17.5 |
Secondary prevention | |||||
Incremental LYs | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.28 |
Incremental QALYs | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 0.85 |
Incremental costs (£) | − 2529 | 45,279 | 46,375 | 12,981 | − 6377 |
ICER (£ per LY) | − 3157 | 75,283 | 40,708 | 10,409 | − 4998 |
ICER (£ per QALY) | − 4231 | 85,193 | 54,211 | 13,285 | − 7472 |
Number needed to treat (NNT) | |||||
Non-fatal MI | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
Non-fatal stroke | 8.8 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 21.5 |
Hospitalisation for unstable angina | 31.3 | 5.8 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 5.2 |
Coronary revascularisation | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
CVD death | 7.3 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
Non-CVD death | 15.8 | 24.3 | 17.9 | 48.8 | 23.1 |
3.2 Sensitivity Analyses
3.2.1 Univariate Sensitivity and Scenario Analyses
3.2.2 Subgroup Analyses
Subgroup | Primary prevention | Secondary prevention | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Icosapent ethyl | Icosapent ethyl | Evolocumab | Alirocumab | |
Base case | 19,485 | 13,285 | 85,193 | 54,211 |
Age | ||||
< 65 years | 14,368 | 8809 | 88,474 | 59,567 |
≥ 65 years | 36,383 | 37,071 | 85,193 | 47,632 |
Baseline triglyceride ≥ 200 mg/dL and HDL-C ≤ 35 mg/dLa | ||||
No | 23,288 | 17,226 | NR | NR |
Yes | 12,166 | 7131 | NR | NR |
Baseline LDL-C ≥ 100 mg/dLb | ||||
No | NR | NR | 107,362 | 62,001 |
Yes | NR | NR | 63,600 | 44,851 |
Baseline high-sensitivity CRP | ||||
≤ 2 mg/L | 14,882 | 9221 | 74,106 | 49,660 |
> 2 mg/LL | 25,694 | 20,048 | 99,947 | 59,567 |