Introduction
Methods
Study design and setting
Participants and exclusions
Variables and data sources
Statistical analyses
Results
All | Term | Preterm | |
---|---|---|---|
N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | |
All | 517,558 (100) | 487,041 (94.1) | 30,517 (5.9) |
Maternal Age | |||
< 20 years | 44,818 (8.7) | 41,588 (8.5) | 3230 (10.6) |
20–24 years | 111,386 (21.5) | 104,945 (21.5) | 6441 (21.1) |
25–29 years | 181,503 (35.1) | 171,489 (35.2) | 10,014 (32.8) |
30–34 years | 138,676 (26.8) | 130,624 (26.8) | 8052 (26.4) |
35–39 years | 38,307 (7.4) | 35,780 (7.3) | 2527 (8.3) |
≥ 40 years | 2737 (0.5) | 2492 (0.5) | 245 (0.8) |
Missing | 131 (< 0.1) | 123 (< 0.1) | 8 (< 0.1) |
Ethnicity | |||
Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander a | 9883 (1.9) | 8982 (1.8) | 901 (3.0) |
Non-Aboriginal | 410,248 (79.3) | 386,295 (79.3) | 23,953 (78.5) |
Missing | 97,427 (18.8) | 91,764 (18.8) | 5663 (18.6) |
Smoked during pregnancy b | |||
No | 453,201 (87.6) | 427,638 (87.8) | 25,563 (83.8) |
Yes | 63,284 (12.2) | 58,419 (12.0) | 4865 (15.9) |
Missing | 1073 (0.2) | 984 (0.2) | 89 (0.3) |
Year of birth | |||
1994–1999 | 145,603 (28.1) | 137,052 (28.1) | 8551 (28.0) |
2000–2004 | 124,706 (24.1) | 117,300 (24.1) | 7406 (24.3) |
2005–2009 | 134,350 (26.0) | 126,505 (26.0) | 7845 (25.7) |
2010–2016 | 112,899 (21.8) | 106,184 (21.8) | 6715 (22.0) |
Small for gestational age | |||
No | 453,865 (87.7) | 427,054 (87.7) | 26,811 (87.9) |
Yes | 63,214 (12.2) | 59,616 (12.2) | 3598 (11.8) |
Missing | 479 (0.1) | 371 (0.1) | 108 (0.4) |
Stillbirth | |||
No | 514,568 (99.4) | 486,070 (99.8) | 28,498 (93.4) |
Yes | 2990 (0.6) | 971 (0.2) | 2019 (6.6) |
Socioeconomic Index c | |||
Missing | 4103 (0.8) | 3880 (0.8) | 223 (0.7) |
Mean (SD) d | 997 (66) | 997 (66) | 993 (65) |
First Child | Preterm Birth of Second Child | Preterm Birth of Second Child | Gestational Age of Second Child | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
< 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | < 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | ||||||||||
N (%) | 1629 (0.31) | 3688 (0.71) | 6276 (1.21) | 23,940 (4.63) | 1629 (0.31) | 3688 (0.71) | 6276 (1.21) | 23,940 (4.63) | Centile of Distribution | ||||||||
Gest. Age (weeks) | Relative Risk (95% Confidence Interval c) | Absolute Risk (%, 95 Confidence Interval d) | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 50 | 75 | 90 | |||||||
22–30 | 4371 (0.8) | 16.65 (13.83–19.95) | 18.38 (16.27–20.71) | 16.88 (15.34–18.54) | 10.37 (9.79–10.96) | 3.66 (3.14–4.26) | 8.42 (7.63–9.28) | 12.77 (11.81–13.79) | 27.45 (26.15–28.80) | 29 | 32 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
31–32 | 2338 (0.5) | 7.59 (5.38–10.38) | 11.95 (9.91–14.28) | 12.55 (10.92–14.35) | 10.27 (9.54–11.03) | 1.67 (1.22–2.27) | 5.47 (4.62–6.47) | 9.50 (8.37–10.75) | 27.20 (25.44–29.04) | 31 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
33 | 2063 (0.4) | 6.61 (4.47–9.39) | 8.99 (7.17–11.13) | 10.38 (8.83–12.11) | 10.52 (9.75–11.33) | 1.45 (1.02–2.07) | 4.12 (3.34–5.07) | 7.85 (6.77–9.09) | 27.87 (25.98–29.85) | 32 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
34 | 3569 (0.7) | 4.59 (3.21–6.35) | 6.42 (5.22–7.81) | 7.52 (6.49–8.66) | 8.20 (7.65–8.78) | 1.01 (0.73–1.39) | 2.94 (2.44–3.55) | 5.69 (4.97–6.50) | 21.71 (20.39–23.10) | 33 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
35 | 6062 (1.2) | 4.35 (3.27–5.68) | 4.75 (3.94–5.68) | 5.93 (5.21–6.73) | 7.06 (6.64–7.49) | 0.96 (0.74–1.23) | 2.18 (1.84–2.58) | 4.49 (3.99–5.04) | 18.69 (17.73–19.69) | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
36 | 12,114 (2.3) | 2.55 (1.96–3.28) | 3.32 (2.82–3.88) | 3.80 (3.37–4.26) | 5.35 (5.08–5.64) | 0.56 (0.44–0.71) | 1.52 (1.32–1.75) | 2.87 (2.59–3.19) | 14.18 (13.57–14.81) | 35 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 |
37 | 26,310 (5.1) | 2.39 (1.96–2.89) | 2.61 (2.29–2.97) | 2.73 (2.47–3.01) | 3.70 (3.53–3.87) | 0.52 (0.44–0.62) | 1.20 (1.07–1.34) | 2.06 (1.90–2.24) | 9.79 (9.44–10.16) | 35 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 40 |
38 | 68,508 (13.2) | 1.31 (1.10–1.56) | 1.61 (1.44–1.80) | 1.79 (1.64–1.95) | 2.29 (2.20–2.39) | 0.29 (0.25–0.33) | 0.74 (0.68–0.80) | 1.35 (1.27–1.44) | 6.08 (5.90–6.26) | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 |
39 | 115,699 (22.4) | 1.20 (1.03–1.40) | 1.22 (1.10–1.36) | 1.24 (1.14–1.34) | 1.46 (1.40–1.52) | 0.26 (0.24–0.30) | 0.56 (0.52–0.61) | 0.94 (0.88–1.00) | 3.86 (3.75–3.98) | 37 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 |
40 | 168,287 (32.5) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.22 (0.20–0.24) | 0.46 (0.43–0.49) | 0.76 (0.72–0.80) | 2.65 (2.57–2.73) | 37 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 41 |
41 | 96,443 (18.6) | 0.94 (0.79–1.12) | 0.89 (0.79–1.00) | 0.83 (0.75–0.91) | 0.78 (0.74–0.82) | 0.21 (0.18–0.24) | 0.41 (0.37–0.45) | 0.63 (0.58–0.68) | 2.07 (1.98–2.16) | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 |
42–44 | 11,794 (2.3) | 1.00 (0.66–1.46) | 1.00 (0.75–1.30) | 0.87 (0.69–1.09) | 0.77 (0.67–0.87) | 0.22 (0.15–0.32) | 0.46 (0.35–0.60) | 0.66 (0.53–0.82) | 2.03 (1.79–2.30) | 38 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 41 |
Distribution of second child gestational age by first child gestational age
Ability of first child preterm birth to predict second child preterm birth
Preterm Birth of Second Child | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sensitivity (%, 95 Confidence Interval c) | Positive Predictive Value (%, 95 Confidence Interval c) | ||||||||
< 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | < 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | ||
Preterm Birth of First Child | < 28 weeks | 6.57 (5.46–7.88) | 5.64 (4.94–6.43) | 4.76 (4.26–5.32) | 2.60 (2.40–2.81) | 4.35 (3.62–5.24) | 8.47 (7.43–9.63) | 12.17 (10.94–13.52) | 25.32 (23.64–27.07) |
< 32 weeks | 10.62 (9.22–12.21) | 11.31 (10.32–12.37) | 10.33 (9.60–11.10) | 6.04 (5.75–6.35) | 3.26 (2.82–3.78) | 7.87 (7.17–8.63) | 12.23 (11.37–13.14) | 27.29 (26.11–28.50) | |
< 34 weeks | 14.06 (12.45–15.83) | 15.75 (14.61–16.97) | 15.01 (14.15–15.91) | 10.07 (9.70–10.46) | 2.61 (2.30–2.97) | 6.62 (6.12–7.16) | 10.74 (10.11–11.40) | 27.49 (26.56–28.43) | |
< 37 weeks | 24.00 (21.99–26.14) | 27.17 (25.76–28.63) | 28.12 (27.02–29.25) | 25.22 (24.67–25.77) | 1.28 (1.16–1.41) | 3.28 (3.09–3.49) | 5.78 (5.53–6.05) | 19.78 (19.34–20.23) | |
Specificity (%, 95 Confidence Interval c) | Negative Predictive Value (%, 95 Confidence Interval c) | ||||||||
< 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | < 28 weeks | < 32 weeks | < 34 weeks | < 37 weeks | ||
< 28 weeks | 99.54 (99.53–99.56) | 99.56 (99.54–99.58) | 99.58 (99.56–99.60) | 99.63 (99.61–99.64) | 99.70 (99.69–99.72) | 99.32 (99.30–99.35) | 98.84 (98.81–98.87) | 95.47 (95.42–95.53) | |
< 32 weeks | 99.01 (98.98–99.03) | 99.05 (99.02–99.08) | 99.09 (99.06–99.12) | 99.22 (99.19–99.24) | 99.72 (99.70–99.73) | 99.36 (99.34–99.38) | 98.90 (98.87–98.93) | 95.61 (95.55–95.66) | |
< 34 weeks | 98.34 (98.31–98.38) | 98.41 (98.37–98.44) | 98.47 (98.43–98.50) | 98.71 (98.68–98.74) | 99.72 (99.71–99.74) | 99.39 (99.37–99.41) | 98.95 (98.92–98.98) | 95.77 (95.71–95.82) | |
< 37 weeks | 94.16 (94.10–94.22) | 94.26 (94.19–94.32) | 94.38 (94.31–94.44) | 95.04 (94.98–95.10) | 99.75 (99.73–99.76) | 99.45 (99.43–99.47) | 99.07 (99.05–99.10) | 96.32 (96.27–96.38) |