Food availability
Though the greater proportion of essential food commodities available on the market (approx. 88%) was sustainably ensured regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a slight drop at the beginning of the initial spread of COVID-19 (i.e., from mid-March to mid-June 2020). Note that this fluctuation between mid-March and mid-June 2020 aligns with the seasonal trend in the previous two years before the COVID-19 pandemic (Fig.
2). An increase in the proportion of essential food commodities after mid-June 2020 also aligned with the seasonal trend during the last two years. Thus, these changes in food availability are more likely attributed not to the COVID-19 pandemic but to normal agricultural seasonal activities in Ghana (i.e., sowing and growing in March – June; and harvesting in July—September).
The results of our study indicate that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food availability was limited in Ghana, likely due to the well-established system of local production of essential food commodities. Generally, food production in Ghana increased in 2019 compared to 2018 [
25]. Although Ghana largely depends on imports for its rice supply (60%) [
26], rice is storable for more than one year. Moreover, it appears that the COVID-19 pandemic did not trigger major behavioral changes among farmers in their agricultural activities in 2020 (e.g., sowing, growing, and harvesting). Although the lockdown restriction affected supplies of agricultural inputs across the country for a short period, the production process of major staple foods was not significantly affected. Farmers continued to plant during the major sowing season for major crops like maize and millet (June to August) after the lockdown restriction was relaxed. Ghana’s Strategic Policy of Investing in Food and Jobs ensured that farmers continued to receive agricultural inputs such as certified seeds, fertilizers, mechanization, and extension services. In addition, the government did not apply the border closure to goods, supplies, and cargo, thus ensuring a continuous flow of agricultural commodities [
18].
Food affordability by food group
This study found a significant increase in the food retail prices of starchy food groups (such as starchy roots, tubers, plantains, and their products), particularly during the initial five-month spread of COVID-19. Despite the significant price drop during the two months after the peak of first wave of COVID-19, the mean prices remained higher than those predicted under the counterfactual assumption that the COVID-19 pandemic had not occurred.
Starchy roots, tubers, and plantains, which are consumed at a high rate in Ghana, are locally produced but have a high rate of perishing, while cereals and legumes can be stored for a longer period. The movement restrictions and the economic slowdown caused by the lockdown made it challenging for farmers to regularly access their farms. Consequently, a reduced total food supply and a higher rate of perishability likely contributed to higher prices of starchy roots, tubers, and plantains. In addition, the populations’ panic buying behaviors and changes in food consumption patterns led to an unexpected increase in their demands for main staple foods [
2,
27]. After the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ghana, approximately a total of 42,000 and 12,000 employees were laid off in May–June and August–September 2020, respectively (Ghana Statistical Service, 2020). India and Pakistan also reported a reduction of household income around March and April [
2]. Although income and demand for foods are closely linked in developing countries, prices of staple foods remained high. Households tended to purchase relatively cheaper staple foods than more expensive but more nutrient-dense foods. Food consumption pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic under the difficult economic situation should be assessed to prevent micronutrient deficiencies among the poor population.
The increase in prices of starchy food groups could partially be attributed to their continued usual export to neighboring countries such as Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Cassava, in particular, has been rapidly gaining significant commercial value in Ghana due to its increased demand from the Chinese-operated starch factories springing up in major industrial parks across the country. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic, among several other possible factors, is likely to have contributed to the rising prices of these starchy food groups. Supplement file
4 provides the full results of interrupted time-series analysis with the interaction between food groups and COVID-19 impacts.
Food affordability by region
Market trading in Ghana heavily relies on imported goods and products from neighboring countries such as Burkina Faso and Nigeria as well as other countries such as China and India. Amidst the supply shortage caused by the global surge of COVID-19 cases, sharp increases in food prices were observed in urban markets across the country [
18].
In this study, we observed that mean food prices in Greater Accra Region significantly increased during the initial spread of COVID-19, but subsequently fell in the two months following the peak of the first wave. The increase in the prices of starchy food groups largely contributed to the changes in overall mean food prices (see Supplement file
6). Greater Accra Region was Ghana’s greatest epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Ashanti Region. Both regions, which underwent partial lockdowns, experienced similar rapid increases in food prices, particularly in starchy food groups (Fig.
4 (b), (g) and Supplement file
6). However, the results of our study indicate that the overall mean food price in Ashanti Region was not significantly affected (Table
4). During the initial spread of COVID-19, some consumers likely increased demand for foods than usual for hoarding purposes. This is a typical means of contingency planning and emergency preparedness for reducing the risks of infection by refraining from going shopping [
28] and for hoarding foods [
29]. Such panic buying and hoarding of non-perishable foods during the initial spread of COVID-19 were also reported in the United States and United Kingdom [
30,
31]. While evidence of panic buying during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa was limited, a sharp increase in food prices due to panic buying, disruptions in internal and external trades, and changes in marketing activities during the outbreak of Ebola virus disease were reported in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone [
32].
Table 4
Results of interrupted time-series analysis on food prices with the interaction between regions and COVID-19 impacts
Reference group: Bono East region |
COVID1 | 0.026 | 0.026 |
COVID2 | -0.058 | 0.080 |
Interaction between COVID-19 impacts and Regions |
Ashanti × COVID1 | 0.041 | 0.034 |
Ashanti × COVID2 | -0.065 | 0.108 |
Bono × COVID1 | -0.029 | 0.044 |
Bono × COVID2 | -0.002 | 0.136 |
Central × COVID1 | 0.052 | 0.041 |
Central × COVID2 | -0.193 | 0.115 |
Eastern × COVID1 | 0.108b | 0.045 |
Eastern × COVID2 | -0.142 | 0.140 |
Greater Accra × COVID1 | 0.075b | 0.034 |
Greater Accra × COVID2 | -0.235b | 0.103 |
Northern × COVID1 | 0.016 | 0.042 |
Northern × COVID2 | 0.006 | 0.120 |
Upper East × COVID1 | -0.002 | 0.038 |
Upper East × COVID2 | 0.231b | 0.114 |
Upper West × COVID1 | -0.004 | 0.046 |
Upper West × COVID2 | -0.083 | 0.144 |
Volta × COVID1 | -0.063 | 0.038 |
Volta × COVID2 | 0.094 | 0.114 |
Western × COVID1 | 0.030 | 0.044 |
Western × COVID2 | -0.017 | 0.137 |
Market traders in the lockdown areas (i.e., Greater Accra and Ashanti regions) were exempted from movement restriction. However, some security officers restricted the movement of traders who were permitted to bring the items from the central markets to neighborhood markets [
18]. While shoppers reported that the traders had deliberately increased food prices to take advantage of panic buying, traders argued that suppliers had increased the prices [
18]. Further investigation is required to clarify the mechanism of food price increases during disease pandemics and emergencies. A previous report noted ed similar increases in food prices and its reasons in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone during the outbreak of Ebola virus disease [
32]. The situation during the COVID-19 pandemic would be more complex compared to the Ebola outbreak, as the pandemic has resulted in global trading restrictions and shortages in supplies.
The Eastern Region, which borders both the Greater Accra Region and Ashanti Region that were two most suffered regions by the COVID-19 related restrictions, experienced a unique situation. The abrupt increase in food price in these neighboring regions, triggered by the restrictions, likely incentivized farmers and food suppliers in Eastern Region to sell more foods in Greater Accra Region and Ashanti Region to maximize their sales and profits. Consequently, this would lead to food shortages and rising food prices within the Eastern Region itself. Moreover, people in the lockdown regions were required to purchase food items from their neighborhood markets during the lockdown. It would result in increasing the demand for food items and their prices in the Eastern region [
18]. Some people in Greater Accra Region and Ashanti Region, in which the COVID-19-related restrictions were enforced, were likely to migrate to other regions, including the Eastern Region, due to fears of infection. Fear of infection has been identified as a significant driver of population movement during the pandemic [
33].
During the five-month initial spread of COVID-19, the number of confirmed cases in the northern part of Ghana was limited. Therefore, the Upper East Region, a major food-producing area in the northern part, did not implement lockdowns or other forms of restrictions. This allowed local food prices in the region to remain stable during this period. However, once restrictions were relaxed in Greater Accra Region and Ashanti Region, food suppliers likely began transporting food to these two most affected regions in search of greater sales and profits. Thus, during the two-month period after the peak of first wave of COVID-19, the Upper East Region would presumably experience intra-regional food shortages and, thereby, rapid food price increases due to increased demands from Greater Accra Region and Ashanti Region.
In addition to increases of food retail prices in some regions of Ghana, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted economic growth, employment, and income [
7,
10]. In Ghana, 46% and 28% of business firms reported reducing wages in May/June and August/September 2020, respectively [
34]. Also, approximately a total of 42,000 and 12,000 employees were laid off in May–June and August–September 2020, respectively [
34]. Consequently, it is evident that the populations’ food-purchasing power was largely reduced. Therefore, the combination of increases in food prices, income loss, and wage reductions synchronously impaired and further exacerbated populations’ ability to afford food. High food prices, especially for the most vulnerable population, can lead to reduced food consumption and poor food security indicators [
35]. A rapid assessment in Kenya and Uganda reported that households with low income were more likely to experience food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic [
15].