Introduction
Methods
Results
Global burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases
Characteristics | Death (95% uncertainty interval) | Incidence (95% uncertainty interval) | DALYs (95% uncertainty interval) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counts | ASR per 100,000 population (95% UI) | Percentage change in ASRs per 100,000 population (95% UI) | Counts | ASR per 100,000 population (95% UI) | Percentage change in ASRs per 100,000 population (95% UI) | Counts | ASR per 100,000 population (95% UI) | Percentage change in ASRs per 100,000 population (95% UI) | |
Global | 1,472,011 (1,374,608 to 1,578,731) | 18.00 (16.80 to 19.31) | -0.26 (-0.32 to -0.20) | 2,051,553 (1,661,430 to 2,478,127) | 25.35 (20.78 to 30.44) | -0.01 (-0.04 to 0.03) | 46,189,415 (43,027,109 to 49,551,291) | 560.43 (521.86 to 602.02) | -0.27 (-0.32 to -0.19) |
Sex | |||||||||
Male | 969,067 (899,212 to 1,045,344) | 24.81 (23.07 to 26.75) | -0.26 (-0.32 to -0.18) | 1,206,124 (964,222 to 1,464,589) | 29.67 (23.86 to 35.98) | -0.01 (-0.05 to 0.03) | 31,781,079 (29,366,251 to 34,438,138) | 783.31 (723.85 to 849.07) | -0.26 (-0.32 to -0.18) |
Female | 502,944 (459,201 to 550,914) | 11.70 (10.68 to 12.81) | -0.28 (-0.34 to -0.20) | 845,429 (687,513 to 1,016,947) | 20.91 (17.22 to 25.15) | -0.01 (-0.04 to 0.04) | 14,408,336 (13,159,620 to 15,759,495) | 343.96 (313.74 to 376.74) | -0.29 (-0.36 to -0.21) |
Regions | |||||||||
Andean Latin America | 14,051 (11,229 to 17,327) | 25.08 (20.08 to 30.92) | -0.20 (-0.40 to 0.06) | 19,973 (17,614 to 22,665) | 32.25 (28.40 to 36.69) | 0.39 (0.28 to 0.50) | 373,058 (294,137 to 465,085) | 639.08 (506.08 to 795.50) | -0.31 (-0.49 to -0.06) |
Australasia | 2511 (2297 to 2731) | 5.48 (5.05 to 5.93) | -0.22 (-0.28 to -0.16) | 3314 (2795 to 3818) | 10.26 (8.75 to 11.72) | -0.08 (-0.14 to -0.01) | 63,252 (58,693 to 67,741) | 153.41 (142.81 to 164.14) | -0.25 (-0.30 to -0.19) |
Caribbean | 9545 (7776 to 11,408) | 18.52 (15.04 to 22.19) | -0.20 (-0.33 to -0.05) | 10,842 (9201 to 12,553) | 21.85 (18.56 to 25.08) | 0.08 (0.03 to 0.13) | 278,278 (219,587 to 341,080) | 545.75 (429.14 to 672.58) | -0.22 (-0.36 to -0.08) |
Central Asia | 33,909 (30,488 to 37,737) | 42.86 (38.53 to 47.51) | 0.55 (0.39 to 0.73) | 58,160 (51,498 to 64,782) | 59.06 (52.30 to 66.01) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.89) | 1,173,144 (1,054,257 to 1,309,148) | 1318.24 (1187.00 to 1467.06) | 0.55 (0.40 to 0.74) |
Central Europe | 33,596 (29,317 to 37,899) | 17.71 (15.42 to 20.04) | -0.21 (-0.31 to -0.11) | 37,555 (33,208 to 41,704) | 29.11 (25.85 to 32.45) | -0.11 (-0.15 to -0.08) | 964,512 (839,764 to 1,091,670) | 554.84 (483.06 to 627.72) | -0.22 (-0.31 to -0.12) |
Central Latin America | 68,062 (58,609 to 78,330) | 28.32 (24.45 to 32.59) | -0.22 (-0.32 to -0.10) | 106,174 (85,022 to 127,867) | 40.76 (32.74 to 48.98) | -0.05 (-0.12 to 0.04) | 2,031,944 (1,740,913 to 2,343,602) | 816.65 (700.77 to 940.38) | -0.26 (-0.37 to -0.15) |
Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 22,757 (17,088 to 29,114) | 36.98 (27.96 to 47.37) | -0.29 (-0.47 to -0.08) | 30,833 (25,653 to 36,783) | 26.97 (21.49 to 33.11) | 0.19 (0.11 to 0.30) | 843,049 (629,421 to 1,106,949) | 1089.72 (821.03 to 1392.66) | -0.28 (-0.47 to -0.04) |
East Asia | 164,719 (140,148 to 191,748) | 8.18 (7.01 to 9.46) | -0.58 (-0.65 to -0.48) | 424,355 (321,444 to 529,848) | 22.51 (17.71 to 27.56) | -0.18 (-0.24 to -0.08) | 4,698,613 (3,982,096 to 5,513,225) | 227.88 (193.82 to 266.21) | -0.61 (-0.68 to -0.51) |
Eastern Europe | 72,717 (64,994 to 81,005) | 24.29 (21.67 to 27.04) | 1.29 (1.04 to 1.55) | 66,873 (47,654 to 90,004) | 31.27 (23.38 to41.10) | 0.57 (0.36 to 0.80) | 2,575,334 (2,298,784 to 2,874,694) | 919.51 (820.66 to 1026.76) | 1.71 (1.43 to 2.02) |
Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 76,980 (66,309 to 91,419) | 44.15 (38.47 to 51.91) | -0.25 (-0.39 to -0.07) | 86,022 (67,755 to 105,518) | 27.15 (19.80 to 35.41) | 0.07 (0.03 to 0.13) | 2,608,125 (2,191,259 to 3,151,158) | 1178.42 (1015.50 to 1402.45) | -0.28 (-0.44 to -0.06) |
High-income Asia Pacific | 36,888 (32,213 to 41,082) | 8.69 (7.87 to 9.38) | -0.58 (-0.61 to -0.54) | 50,826 (41,597 to 60,069) | 25.15 (21.29 to 29.18) | -0.36 (-0.41 to -0.29) | 776,896 (717,257 to 824,271) | 230.17 (216.01 to 242.91) | -0.62 (-0.64 to -0.58) |
High-income North America | 72,738 (69,312 to 75,464) | 12.67 (12.16 to 13.11) | 0.04 (0.01 to 0.08) | 98,636 (81,095 to 116,829) | 25.62 (21.47 to 30.08) | 0.09 (-0.01 to 0.23) | 1,955,333 (1,892,680 to 2,014,258) | 371.36 (360.22 to 381.81) | 0.00 (-0.03 to 0.03) |
North Africa and Middle East | 109,706 (81,390 to 135,204) | 27.73 (21.06 to 33.88) | -0.37 (-0.53 to -0.21) | 160,139 (133,538 to 190,699) | 28.68 (23.58 to 34.88) | 0.21 (0.14 to 0.29) | 2,878,426 (2,126,424 to 3,565,003) | 616.80 (457.71 to 761.65) | -0.37 (-0.54 to -0.20) |
Oceania | 1152 (905 to 1445) | 13.19 (10.56 to 16.35) | -0.20 (-0.38 to -0.01) | 1123 (935 to 1323) | 8.50 (7.05 to 10.00) | -0.13 (-0.18 to -0.08) | 45,977 (35,984 to 57,692) | 440.77 (347.93 to 550.45) | -0.21 (-0.39 to 0.00) |
South Asia | 348,393 (306,924 to 404,845) | 23.49 (20.74 to 27.13) | -0.24 (-0.35 to -0.10) | 413,984 (299,626 to 539,338) | 22.98 (16.68 to 29.92) | 0.33 (0.25 to 0.41) | 12,436,281 (10,954,316 to 14,414,136) | 750.60 (662.20 to 867.89) | -0.24 (-0.35 to -0.10) |
Southeast Asia | 186,154 (165,361 to 207,697) | 30.21 (26.88 to 33.49) | -0.27 (-0.38 to -0.15) | 181,538 (142,578 to 219,743) | 24.76 (19.50 to 30.00) | -0.06 (-0.13 to 0.04) | 5,915,348 (5,207,218 to 6,642,922) | 866.96 (765.10 to 970.68) | -0.33 (-0.42 to -0.22) |
Southern Latin America | 14,153 (13,221 to 15,117) | 17.34 (16.22 to 18.49) | -0.23 (-0.28 to -0.18) | 22,198 (19,634 to 24,756) | 30.50 (27.07 to 34.08) | 0.18 (0.10 to 0.26) | 372,367 (351,788 to 394,658) | 471.63 (446.43 to 499.36) | -0.30 (-0.34 to -0.26) |
Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 9230 (8229 to 10,319) | 15.43 (13.82 to 17.16) | -0.32 (-0.49 to -0.14) | 12,183 (9241 to 15,402) | 15.57 (11.70 to 19.87) | -0.19 (-0.23 to -0.14) | 310,793 (272,943 to 353,505) | 458.73 (405.32 to 516.57) | -0.36 (-0.51 to -0.20) |
Tropical Latin America | 38,778 (36,545 to 41,257) | 15.72 (14.81 to 16.75) | -0.35 (-0.39 to -0.30) | 50,186 (36,235 to 65,544) | 19.79 (14.41 to 25.57) | -0.24 (-0.30 to -0.16) | 1,193,339 (1,134,407 to 1,261,299) | 473.87 (449.62 to 501.06) | -0.39 (-0.43 to -0.35) |
Western Europe | 77,225 (72,044 to 82,464) | 9.41 (8.93 to 9.99) | -0.41 (-0.44 to -0.37) | 116,117 (102,873 to 129,245) | 24.45 (21.91 to 26.93) | -0.19 (-0.22 to -0.16) | 1,832,992 (1,752,143 to 1,930,379) | 260.88 (250.64 to 273.57) | -0.44 (-0.47 to -0.41) |
Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 78,736 (61,695 to 99,765) | 37.50 (30.28 to 46.47) | -0.29 (-0.45 to -0.11) | 100,452 (80,812 to 121,906) | 26.22 (19.92 to 33.23) | 0.10 (0.04 to 0.17) | 2,862,344 (2,196,425 to 3,688,871) | 1052.18 (823.19 to 1337.56) | -0.30 (-0.45 to -0.11) |
Geographic burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases
National burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases
Age and sex on liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases
Burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases by sociodemographic index
Relative risk estimation of ASMR in males and females
coefficients | value | P value | |
---|---|---|---|
α0 | 36.663 | < 0.001 | |
α1 | |||
Gender = male | 26.315 | < 0.001 | |
Gender = female | 0 | ||
α2 | -32.187 | < 0.001 | |
α3 | 1.725 | 0.007 | |
α4 | -2.299 | 0.006 | |
α5 | |||
Gender = male | -18.273 | 0.041 | |
Gender = female | 0 |