Background
Methods
Overview
RCGP RSC sentinel network
Case definition
Statistical methods
Cross sectional model
Five year repeated cross-sectional study
Retrospective cohort study
Results
Description of household size in the RCGP RSC network
Household size | Number of households | % |
---|---|---|
1 | 1,137,627 | 16.7 |
2 | 1,385,964 | 20.3 |
3 | 1,392,742 | 20.4 |
4 | 1,364,388 | 20.0 |
5 | 698,378 | 10.2 |
6 or more | 846,820 | 12.4 |
Total | 6,825,919 | 100.0 |
Identifying cases of household incidence and their differing age-sex profile
2013–14 | 2014–15 | 2015–16 | 2016–17 | 2017–18 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ILI | |||||
Household presentations (n) | 103 | 321 | 280 | 198 | 505 |
% of all cases | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.10% |
Median age (IQR) | 31 (36) | 37 (48) | 32 (35) | 34 (41) | 41 (43) |
LRTI | |||||
Household presentations (n) | 2267 | 2769 | 2333 | 2458 | 2548 |
% of all cases | 0.50% | 0.58% | 0.48% | 0.49% | 0.50% |
Median age (IQR) | 46 (63) | 51 (58) | 48 (61) | 56 (53) | 57 (52) |
URTI | |||||
Household presentations (n) | 14,137 | 16,044 | 14,191 | 11,792 | 12,339 |
% of all cases | 3.10% | 3.39% | 2.92% | 2.37% | 2.43% |
Median age (IQR) | 6 (29) | 7 (30) | 7 (28) | 8 (30) | 8 (29) |
Repeated cross-sectional study
Variable type | Variable detail | Reference group: | ILI (IRR) (95% C.I) | LRTI (IRR) (95% C.I) | URTI (IRR) (95% C.I) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | Female: male ratio | Positive female>male | 1.096 (0·98–1·22) | 1·069 (0·96–1·19) | 1·159 (1·04–1·29) |
Socioeconomic status (SES) | IMD Quintile | Change with improved SES | 0.964 (0·90–1·04) | 0·993 (0·92–1·07) | 0·926 (0·86–1·00) |
Ethnicity | Asian | White ethnicity | 2·933 (2·20–3·90) | 1·207 (0·91–1·61) | 1·871 (1·41–2·49) |
Black | 0·549 (0·30–1·01) | 0·563 (0·30–1·04) | 0·796 (0·43–1·47) | ||
Mixed | 1·368 (0·89–2·10) | 0·922 (0·60–1·41) | 1·020 (0·67–1·56) | ||
Other | 1·295 (0·54–3·08) | 1·081 (0·46–2·57) | 1·355 (0·57–3·22) | ||
Preschool child | Under 5 in Household | No under 5 | 1·616 (1·38–1·89) | 2·404 (2·04–2·83) | 4·461 (3·79–5·25) |
Household size | Household size | For each increase in size | 1·399 (1·31–1·49) | 1·182 (1·11–1·26) | 1·563 (1·47–1·67) |
High risk groups | Asthma | Not present in household | 0·994 (0·78–1·27) | 2·041 (1·60–2·60) | 1·581 (1·52–1·64) |
Immuno-supressed | 1·224 (0·80–1·87) | 1·559 (1·02–2·39) | 0·781 (0·72–0·85) | ||
Respiratory disease | 0·940 (0·58–1·53) | 2·433 (1·50–3·95) | 0·737 (0·67–0·81) | ||
Morbidly obese (BMI > 35) | 1·580 (1·15–2·18) | 1·464 (1·06–2·02) | 1·360 (1·28–1·44) | ||
Coronary heart disease (CHD) | 0·960 (0·71–1·30) | 2·051 (1·52–2·78) | 0·917 (0·87–0·97) | ||
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) | 1·051 (0·69–1·61) | 2·196 (1·43–3·37) | 0·718 (0·65–0·79) | ||
Chronic liver disease | 1·295 (0·98–1·72) | 1·792 (1·35–2·38) | 0·956 (0·91–1·01) | ||
Diabetes | 1·859 (0·91–3·82) | 1·399 (0·68–2·88) | 1·063 (0·91–1·24) | ||
Asplenia | 1.521 (0·78–2·95) | 1·323 (0·68–2·57) | 1·252 (1·11–1·42) | ||
Pregnancy | 0·437 (0·21–0·92) | 1·097 (0·52–2·32) | 1·564 (1·48–1·66) | ||
ONS rural-urban conurbation | Conurbation | City and Town | 0·937 (0·65–1·35) | 1·018 (0·70–1·47) | 0·957 (0·66–1·38) |
Rural | 1·613 (1·25–2·08) | 1·096 (0·85–1·41) | 0·886 (0·69–1·14) | ||
NHS Region | Midlands and East | London | 0·670 (0·44–1·03) | 1·594 (1·06–2·50) | 0·678 (0·44–1·04) |
North | 0·621 (0·43–0·90) | 1·507 (1·04–2·18) | 0·827 (0·57–1·20) | ||
South | 0·778 (0·51–1·18) | 1·116 (0·74–1·69) | 0·709 (0·47–1·08) | ||
Season | 2014–2015 | Reference 2013–2014 | 3·282 (2·20–4·89) | 1·261 (0·85–1·88) | 1·115 (0·75–1·66) |
2015–2016 | 2·751 (1·84–4·12) | 1·033 (0·69–1·55) | 0·920 (0·61–1·38) | ||
2016–2017 | 1·966 (1·29–3·00) | 1·055 (0·69–1·61) | 0·799 (0·52–1·22) | ||
2017–2018 | 5·385 (3·68–7·89) | 1·058 (0·72–1·55) | 0·826 (0·56–1·21) |
Retrospective cohort study, shared frailty model
Variable type | Variable detail | Reference group: | ILI (HR) (95% C.I) | LRTI (HR) (95% C.I) | URTI (HR) (95% C.I) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | Female:male ratio | female | 0·87 (0·76–0·99) | 0·94 (0·9–0·98) | 0·83 (0·81–0·84) |
Socioeconomic status (SES) | IMD Quintile | Change with improved SES | 0·91 (0·84–0·99) | 0·99 (0·97–1·02) | 0·93 (0·92–0·94) |
Ethnicity | Asian | White ethnicity | 2·38 (2·32–2·44) | 1·06 (0·92–1·21) | 1·48 (1·42–1·55) |
Black | 0·81 (0·71–0·91) | 0·69 (0·53–0·9) | 0·89 (0·83–0·95) | ||
Mixed | 1·33 (1·23–1·60) | 1·04 (0·85–1·26) | 1·28 (1·20–1·37) | ||
Other | 1·93 (1·64–2·23) | 0·7 (0·53–0·94) | 1·15 (1·05–1·25) | ||
Preschool child | Under 5 in Household | No under 5 | 2·34 (1·88–2·90) | 2·97 (2·76–3·2) | 10·32 (10·04–10·62) |
Household size | Household size | For each increase in size | 1·56 (1·46–1·67) | 1·36 (1·36–1·41) | 1·29 (1·27–1·30) |
Presence of Disease | Asthma | Not present in household | 1·05 (0·82–1·33) | 1·48 (1·4–1·58) | 1·15 (1·11–1·19) |
Pregnancy | 1·67 (1·03–2·70) | 0·91 (0·74–1·11) | 1·03 (0·96–1·11) | ||
Diabetes | 1·2 (0·92–1·55) | 1·31 (1·22–1·41) | 0·7 (0·66–0·74) | ||
Respiratory Condition | 0·72 (0·43–1·21) | 1·43 (1·31–1·56) | 0·53 (0·47–0·59) | ||
Coronary Heart disease | 1·19 (0·89–1·58) | 1·52 (1·42–1·62) | 0·83 (0·77–0·89) | ||
Chronic kidney Disease | 1·14 (0·74–1·75) | 1·44 (1·32–1·55) | 0·61 (0·53–0·69) | ||
Immunosuppressed | 0·99 (0·61–1·60) | 1·31 (1·14–1·50) | 0·88 (0·78–0·99) | ||
Obesity | 1·48 (0·92–2·41) | 1·25 (1·09–1·32) | 0·88 (0·80–0·97) | ||
Neurological Disease | 1·2 (0·82–1·75) | 1·5 (1·38–1·63) | 0·82 (0·76–0·89) | ||
Liver Disease | 1·1 (0·59–2·07) | 1·11 (0·87–1·41) | 0·79 (0·68–0·92) | ||
Asplenia | 1·36 (0·52–3·60) | 0·96 (0·75–1·23) | 0·9 (0·80–1·02) | ||
Urban-rural class | Conurbation | City and Town | 0·77 (0·60–0·98) | 0·99 (0·99–1·07) | 0·94 (0·91–0·98) |
Rural | 1·45 (1·07–1·97) | 1·16 (1·06–1·27) | 0·91 (0·87–0·96) | ||
NHS Region | Midlands and East | London | 0·66 (0·44–0·99) | 1·72 (1·54–1·92) | 0·67 (0·64–0·71) |
North | 0·64 (0·43–0·95) | 1·77 (1·62–1·94) | 0·81 (0·78–0·85) | ||
South | 0·75 (0·51–1·10) | 1·35 (1·23–1·48) | 0·74 (0·71–0·78) |