Background
Methods
Model description
Data sources
Demographic profile and mortality
Input | Description | Data source | Values |
---|---|---|---|
Population | Vietnamese children aged 5–19 years | 2019 Viet Nam Population and Housing Census [23] | See Table 2 |
Health states | Prevalence of underweight and overweight/obesity by sex and age | See Additional file 1: Table 1-A | |
Transition probability between health states | Transition probability between weight status by sex and age (i.e., underweight to underweight, underweight to healthy weight or underweight to overweight/obesity) | See Additional file 1: Table 1-B | |
Mortality | All-cause mortality rates by sex and age | WHO life table for Vietnam from Global Health Observatory data repository 2019 [24] | See Additional file 1: Table 1-C |
Mortality risk by weight status for those 20 years and over | The Global BMI Mortality Collaboration [29] | See Additional file 1: Table 1-D | |
Quality-adjusted life-years | Quality-adjusted life-years by sex, age and weight status | Mai VQ et al. Reference Data and Known-Groups Validity of the EQ-5D-5L for Vietnam [30] | See Additional file 1: Table 1-E |
Weight status and transition probabilities
Quality of adjusted life years
Scenario analyses
Sensitivity analyses
Ethical considerations
Results
Population | Underweight | Healthy weight | Overweight/obesity | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age | Boys | Girls | Boys | Girls | Boys | Girls | Boys | Girls |
5 | 4,354,887 | 3,977,832 | 12.3% | 12.9% | 66.9% | 76.3% | 20.8% | 10.9% |
6 | 13.1% | 12.7% | 66.3% | 76.2% | 20.6% | 11.0% | ||
7 | 14.1% | 14.2% | 64.8% | 74.6% | 21.1% | 11.2% | ||
8 | 15.2% | 16.4% | 63.2% | 72.4% | 21.7% | 11.2% | ||
9 | 16.2% | 18.5% | 62.1% | 70.5% | 21.7% | 11.0% | ||
10 | 3,737,030 | 3,482,807 | 17.0% | 19.4% | 62.2% | 70.1% | 20.8% | 10.5% |
11 | 17.6% | 18.9% | 63.6% | 71.4% | 18.8% | 9.8% | ||
12 | 17.7% | 17.1% | 65.9% | 73.9% | 16.4% | 9.0% | ||
13 | 17.6% | 14.8% | 68.5% | 77.0% | 13.9% | 8.2% | ||
14 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 71.3% | 80.3% | 11.6% | 7.5% | ||
15 | 3,352,386 | 3,153,831 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 73.9% | 83.2% | 9.7% | 6.9% |
16 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 76.3% | 85.5% | 8.3% | 6.5% | ||
17 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 78.4% | 86.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | ||
18 | 13.2% | 6.3% | 79.9% | 87.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | ||
19 | 14.5% | 8.2% | 76.5% | 85.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
Deaths, years of life lived, quality adjusted life years
Deaths | Years of life lived | QALYs | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age group | UW | HW | OWB | Total | UW | HW | OWB | Total | UW | HW | OWB | Total |
Men | ||||||||||||
5–9 | 167,587 | 1,293,769 | 991,414 | 2,452,770 | 10,593,642 | 79,192,463 | 32,748,453 | 122,534,557 | 10,434,860 | 77,462,671 | 31,834,473 | 119,732,004 |
10–14 | 143,245 | 1,107,671 | 851,036 | 2,101,952 | 7,834,098 | 64,933,117 | 28,886,431 | 101,653,646 | 7,675,863 | 63,209,353 | 27,975,622 | 98,860,838 |
15–19 | 127,531 | 990,103 | 764,197 | 1,881,831 | 5,629,735 | 57,314,762 | 29,426,907 | 92,371,403 | 5,455,401 | 55,414,529 | 28,425,547 | 89,295,477 |
Total | 438,363 | 3,391,543 | 2,606,647 | 6,436,552 | 24,057,475 | 201,440,341 | 91,061,791 | 316,559,607 | 23,566,124 | 196,086,554 | 88,235,642 | 307,888,320 |
Women | ||||||||||||
5–9 | 88,928 | 595,359 | 533,459 | 1,217,746 | 13,170,646 | 78,943,176 | 23,559,900 | 115,673,722 | 12,777,945 | 76,838,070 | 22,233,450 | 111,849,465 |
10–14 | 77,645 | 519,870 | 467,152 | 1,064,667 | 10,938,964 | 65,405,842 | 22,087,427 | 98,432,233 | 10,540,083 | 63,267,813 | 20,740,223 | 94,548,119 |
15–19 | 69,864 | 468,856 | 423,274 | 961,994 | 9,496,629 | 57,810,961 | 23,556,472 | 90,864,062 | 9,069,451 | 55,428,540 | 22,053,054 | 86,551,045 |
Total | 236,437 | 1,584,085 | 1,423,885 | 3,244,407 | 33,606,239 | 202,159,980 | 69,203,799 | 304,970,018 | 32,387,479 | 195,534,424 | 65,026,726 | 292,948,629 |
Men and women | ||||||||||||
5–9 | 256,515 | 1,889,128 | 1,524,873 | 3,670,515 | 23,764,287 | 158,135,639 | 56,308,353 | 238,208,280 | 23,212,805 | 154,300,741 | 54,067,923 | 231,581,469 |
10–14 | 220,890 | 1,627,541 | 1,318,188 | 3,166,619 | 18,773,062 | 130,338,959 | 50,973,858 | 200,085,880 | 18,215,946 | 126,477,167 | 48,715,844 | 193,408,957 |
15–19 | 197,395 | 1,458,959 | 1,187,471 | 2,843,825 | 15,126,364 | 115,125,723 | 52,983,378 | 183,235,466 | 14,524,852 | 110,843,070 | 50,478,601 | 175,846,523 |
Total | 674,800 | 4,975,627 | 4,030,532 | 9,680,959 | 57,663,714 | 403,600,321 | 160,265,590 | 621,529,625 | 55,953,603 | 391,620,978 | 153,262,368 | 600,836,948 |
Scenario analyses
Deaths | Years of life lived | QALYs | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | Total | Men | Women | Total | Men | Women | Total | |
Base-case | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 316,559,607 | 304,970,018 | 621,529,625 | 307,888,320 | 292,948,629 | 600,836,948 |
Underweight | |||||||||
10% reduction | 6,421,736 | 3,235,584 | 9,657,321 | 316,606,814 | 304,996,333 | 621,603,146 | 307,931,137 | 292,973,262 | 600,904,399 |
20% reduction | 6,409,303 | 3,228,321 | 9,637,623 | 316,647,304 | 305,018,748 | 621,666,052 | 307,967,970 | 292,994,449 | 600,962,419 |
50% reduction | 6,381,666 | 3,212,633 | 9,594,299 | 316,740,400 | 305,069,616 | 621,810,016 | 308,053,003 | 293,043,225 | 601,096,229 |
No underweight | 6,353,624 | 3,197,351 | 9,550,975 | 316,839,661 | 305,122,583 | 621,962,244 | 308,144,159 | 293,095,050 | 601,239,209 |
Overweight/obesity | |||||||||
10% reduction | 6,388,001 | 3,212,810 | 9,600,811 | 316,799,775 | 305,066,553 | 621,866,328 | 308,107,086 | 293,350,407 | 601,457,493 |
20% reduction | 6,352,770 | 3,189,463 | 9,542,233 | 316,972,376 | 305,137,893 | 622,110,269 | 308,264,921 | 293,646,644 | 601,911,565 |
50% reduction | 6,287,936 | 3,145,675 | 9,433,610 | 317,285,097 | 305,271,666 | 622,556,762 | 308,552,780 | 294,198,808 | 602,751,588 |
No overweight/obesity | 6,235,980 | 3,109,914 | 9,345,895 | 317,530,092 | 305,380,910 | 622,911,002 | 308,780,579 | 294,644,694 | 603,425,273 |
10% increase | 6,508,022 | 3,289,591 | 9,797,613 | 316,203,016 | 304,832,135 | 621,035,151 | 307,564,572 | 292,374,511 | 599,939,082 |
Underweight and overweight/obesity | |||||||||
10% reduction | 6,370,643 | 3,202,308 | 9,572,951 | 316,854,652 | 305,096,279 | 621,950,931 | 308,157,110 | 293,380,775 | 601,537,885 |
20% reduction | 6,317,247 | 3,167,877 | 9,485,124 | 317,085,142 | 305,197,887 | 622,283,029 | 308,368,234 | 293,711,920 | 602,080,154 |
50% reduction | 6,201,845 | 3,092,983 | 9,294,828 | 317,561,263 | 305,414,978 | 622,976,241 | 308,808,152 | 294,372,223 | 603,180,376 |
All healthy weight | |||||||||
6,085,928 | 3,017,764 | 9,103,692 | 318,017,145 | 305,630,002 | 623,647,147 | 309,234,187 | 294,969,934 | 604,204,121 | |
Discount rate | |||||||||
0% | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 642,878,246 | 642,016,057 | 1,284,894,303 | 622,587,009 | 611,044,424 | 1,233,631,433 |
4% | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 264,405,312 | 252,724,245 | 517,129,557 | 257,500,197 | 243,390,933 | 500,891,130 |
5% | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 225,814,801 | 214,508,933 | 440,323,734 | 220,187,086 | 207,063,618 | 427,250,704 |
Sensitivity analyses
Deaths | Years of life lived | QALYs | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | Total | Men | Women | Total | Men | Women | Total | |
Prevalence of underweight and overweight/obesity | |||||||||
Lower confidence interval | 6,436,550 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,957 | 316,559,712 | 304,970,027 | 621,529,738 | 307,888,420 | 292,948,637 | 600,837,057 |
Upper confidence interval | 6,436,555 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,963 | 316,559,456 | 304,970,012 | 621,529,468 | 307,888,175 | 292,948,623 | 600,836,798 |
Transition probability of being/staying underweight, overweight/obesity | |||||||||
Lower confidence interval | 6,352,656 | 3,196,077 | 9,548,733 | 316,900,839 | 305,109,141 | 622,009,980 | 308,212,395 | 293,275,208 | 601,487,603 |
Upper confidence interval | 6,592,227 | 3,328,217 | 9,920,444 | 315,848,262 | 304,708,614 | 620,556,876 | 307,208,899 | 292,419,174 | 599,628,073 |
QALYs | |||||||||
Lower confidence interval | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 316,559,607 | 304,970,018 | 621,529,625 | 305,044,247 | 289,241,789 | 594,286,036 |
Upper confidence interval | 6,436,552 | 3,244,407 | 9,680,959 | 316,559,607 | 304,970,018 | 621,529,625 | 310,670,996 | 296,533,782 | 607,204,777 |
Deaths | Years of life lived | QALYs | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | 95% CI | Mean | 95% CI | Mean | 95% CI | ||||
Men | 6,459,944 | 6,241,947 | 6,732,125 | 316,432,036 | 315,134,853 | 317,398,661 | 307,709,514 | 286,710,511 | 316,063,270 |
Women | 3,257,661 | 3,120,190 | 3,425,340 | 304,925,611 | 304,398,387 | 305,346,475 | 292,782,212 | 269,206,310 | 303,572,918 |
Total | 9,717,606 | 9,363,104 | 10,157,583 | 621,357,647 | 619,535,507 | 622,742,793 | 600,491,726 | 570,866,049 | 616,958,659 |