Background
Methods
Results
Conceptual framework
The evidence-based conceptual framework (Fig. 1) represents a comprehensive, integrated and novel approach to understanding the complex pathways through which structural, community, school, family, peer, and individual risk and protective factors contribute to the global burden of NCDs among adolescents and in later adulthood. Key definitions Social Determinants of Health: Conditions in which people are born, grow, develop, live, work and age. This includes the social, political, economic, environmental and cultural systems and forces that influence and shape the health and wellbeing of individuals. Macro, Societal & Political: Fundamental global and national social, economic, and political structures that shape inequalities in society, health and individual development. Macro trends include factors such as migration, conflict, environmental conditions, global economic development, technology and innovation. Societal and political determinants also represent underlying factors that substantially impact health, including national wealth, policies and laws, infrastructure, population density, governance, and culture. Community & School: Circumstances of daily life where adolescents live, work and learn, including youth and women’s empowerment, quality and access to health services, education, transportation, access to health services and employment opportunities and conditions. Family & Peer Factors: The primary protective and enabling structures that shape the health and development of young people. Relationships, connectedness, and the behaviours of family (e.g. parents, guardians, caretakers and siblings) and peers significantly influence the behaviour and health of adolescents. Individual Factors: Individual developmental milestones and social role transitions, including sexual and reproductive health, early marriage, age of puberty, education and employment. Behavioural, biological, metabolic, nutritional, environmental and occupational factors that are protective or risk factors for individual adolescent health. Macro, societal and political factors, including climate change and natural disasters, conflict, national wealth and health spending, infrastructure and urbanization, and governance represent critical overarching influences that shape the development and health of adolescents globally. These factors underlie and influence community and school factors, for example urbanization can improve young people’s access to education and health services, however may also increase young people’s risk for NCD-related risk factors, including mental health issues and obesity and physical inactivity [12]. Community and school level determinants play a substantial role in determining the current and future health of adolescents. Income inequality is associated with overall health outcomes, including mortality rates [9, 13] Inequalities in socioeconomic status also represent risks for NCDs including, increased physical inactivity, high BMI, poor psychological and physical well-being, high rates of substance use, bullying, and other poor behavioural and health outcomes [31, 32]. Access to education and educational attainment represent critical protective factors for health across the life-course. Better-educated individuals live longer and healthier lives globally, with lower mortality, and improved self-reported health outcomes [22, 33]. Diverse adolescent health outcomes and behaviours, including sexual and reproductive health, child marriage, mental health and self-harm [34] and obesity [33], are all positively influenced by increased educational attainment, particularly completion of secondary education. In addition, education significantly shapes the health of future generations, empowers youth and women, and narrows inequalities in status and health [35]. Availability and accessibility of health services represents a key approach to addressing and managing chronic health conditions and NCDs [36]. Youth unemployment and low-quality, unsafe, employment opportunities have been identified to significantly impact adolescents’ well-being, job satisfaction and health [37], including association with poor mental health, suicide and violence [22]. Family and peer connectedness, modeling of behaviours, and relationships represent significant protective or risk factors for adolescent health behaviours and outcomes, including smoking, violence, suicidal thoughts and behaviours, sexual and reproductive health, and overall healthy development [2, 36]. Connectedness and attitudes towards school have been associated with substance use, including drug, alcohol and tobacco [36]. Behaviours and risks vary across the life-course, and impact children and adolescents’ growth, development and risk for NCDs. Adolescence represents a time of significant biological, developmental and social role changes and transitions, including puberty, sexual and reproductive health, education, marriage, and employment. Furthermore, the initiation of behaviours such as tobacco use, poor diet, physical inactivity, and consumption of alcohol during childhood and adolescence contributes to the burden of disease during this time period, and substantially increases the risks for NCDs in later life. Mitigating and protective factors during adolescence include female empowerment and the empowerment of young people [35, 36]. The improved status of women in society (e.g. education, employment, increased age of marriage, etc.), has been associated with improved health outcomes for children and adolescents, while increased empowerment, education and employment of young people, are related to improved mental and physical health outcomes [22, 33, 34, 36]. The risk of developing NCDs increases across the life-course from childhood into adulthood [5], including increased risk of asthma, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental and substance use disorders (e.g. drug use disorders, major depressive disorder, etc.), musculoskeletal disorders, cancer, neurological disorders and other NCDs. Peer, family, community, national and broader global social determinants represent complex and interrelated factors that influence and shape individual behaviours and risks contributing to increased burden of NCDs. A supportive and enabling environment to develop and implement policies and interventions targeting structural, community, school, individual and crosscutting levels, represent a critical approach to improving adolescents’ health and development, and to addressing health behaviours and causes of NCDs (Appendix 7). |
Burden and trends of NCD outcomes in adolescents
Both | Male | Female | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age group | Rank | Health Outcome | DALYs (1000s) | % of Total | Health Outcome | Total DALYs (1000s) | % of Total | Health Outcome | Total DALYs (1000s) | % of Total |
10–14 years old | 1 | Conduct disorder | 2595 | 7.74 | Conduct disorder | 1638 | 9.42 | Migraine | 1273 | 7.89 |
2 | Asthma | 2321 | 6.92 | Asthma | 1204 | 6.92 | Anxiety disorders | 1262 | 7.82 | |
3 | Anxiety disorders | 2101 | 6.26 | Anxiety disorders | 839 | 4.82 | Asthma | 1117 | 6.92 | |
4 | Migraine | 2046 | 6.10 | Migraine | 773 | 4.44 | Conduct disorder | 957 | 5.93 | |
5 | Acne vulgaris | 1476 | 4.40 | Acne vulgaris | 722 | 4.15 | Major depressive disorder | 825 | 5.11 | |
6 | Major depressive disorder | 1473 | 4.39 | Low back pain | 649 | 3.73 | Acne vulgaris | 753 | 4.67 | |
7 | Low back pain | 1270 | 3.79 | Major depressive disorder | 648 | 3.72 | Low back pain | 621 | 3.85 | |
8 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 1123 | 3.35 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 626 | 3.60 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 497 | 3.08 | |
9 | Epilepsy | 992 | 2.96 | Epilepsy | 539 | 3.10 | Dermatitis | 482 | 2.98 | |
10 | Dermatitis | 906 | 2.70 | Autism | 454 | 2.61 | Epilepsy | 453 | 2.81 | |
Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 48.60 | Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 46.51 | Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 51.04 | |||||
NCD DALYs | 33,546 | NCD DALYs | 17,398 | NCD DALYs | 16,147 | |||||
Total DALYs | 70,005 | Total DALYs | 38,135 | Total DALYs | 31,870 | |||||
Age group | Rank | Health Outcome | DALYs (1000s) | % of Total | Health Outcome | Total DALYs (1000s) | % of Total | Health Outcome | Total DALYs (1000s) | % of Total |
15–19 Years Old | 1 | Major depressive disorder | 3646 | 8.16 | Major depressive disorder | 1589 | 6.98 | Major depressive disorder | 2058 | 9.38 |
2 | Migraine | 2709 | 6.06 | Low back pain | 1323 | 5.81 | Migraine | 1673 | 7.63 | |
3 | Anxiety disorders | 2511 | 5.62 | Conduct disorder | 1232 | 5.41 | Anxiety disorders | 1518 | 6.92 | |
4 | Low back pain | 2478 | 5.54 | Acne vulgaris | 1065 | 4.68 | Low back pain | 1155 | 5.27 | |
5 | Acne vulgaris | 2151 | 4.81 | Migraine | 1036 | 4.55 | Acne vulgaris | 1086 | 4.95 | |
6 | Other musculoskeletal disorders | 1923 | 4.30 | Anxiety disorders | 993 | 4.36 | Other musculoskeletal disorders | 1051 | 4.79 | |
7 | Conduct disorder | 1874 | 4.19 | Asthma | 889 | 3.90 | Asthma | 865 | 3.95 | |
8 | Asthma | 1755 | 3.92 | Other musculoskeletal disorders | 872 | 3.83 | Conduct disorder | 643 | 2.93 | |
9 | Epilepsy | 1150 | 2.57 | Epilepsy | 682 | 3.00 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 486 | 2.21 | |
10 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 1123 | 2.51 | Age-related and other hearing loss | 638 | 2.80 | Epilepsy | 468 | 2.13 | |
Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 47.69 | Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 45.32 | Percent of total NCD burden in age and sex | 50.16 | |||||
NCD DALYs | 44,706 | NCD DALYs | 22,771 | NCD DALYs | 21,935 | |||||
Total DALYs | 85,151 | Total DALYs | 46,335 | Total DALYs | 38,816 |
Burden, Behavioural, and socioeconomic risk factors
Risk Factor Indicators | Sex | Regions1 | Data Source | Year of Data Collection | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Americas | Europe | Eastern and Southern Africa | Western and Central Africa | Middle East & North Africa | Pacific | South Asia | |||||
Behavioural Risk Factors | Prevalence of current adolescent drinkers aged 15–19 (%) [26] | Males | 54.9 | 69 | 38.5 | 34.5 | 14.1 | 25.2 | 9 | WHO | 2010 |
Females | 37.7 | 48.7 | 25.9 | 22.2 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 4.3 | ||||
Prevalence of current smokers of cigarettes aged 13–15 per 100 population (%) [26] | Males | 17.4 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 5.1 | WHO | 2008–2010 | |
Females | 19.1 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2 | ||||
Prevalence of current tobacco use among adolescents aged 13–15 years (%) [26] | Males | 17 | – | – | – | 21.3 | 12.4 | 21 | WHO | 2007–2014 | |
Females | 13.8 | – | – | – | 9.7 | 3.5 | 7.4 | ||||
Prevalence of insufficient physical activity (school-going adolescents 11–17 years) [26] | Both Sexes | 81.2 | 83.2 | 85.2* | 87.5 | 85 | 73.4 | WHO | 2010 | ||
Males | 87.1 | 87.7 | 87.9* | 91 | 88.9 | 74.6 | |||||
Females | 75.3 | 78.4 | 82.3* | 84.7 | 81 | 72.5 | |||||
Biological Risk Factors | Low birthweight (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 9 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – | UNICEF | 2011–2016 |
Nutrition Risk Factors | Early initiation of breastfeeding (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 54 | 57 | 63 | 40 | 40 | 43 | 39 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 |
Introduction to solid, semi-solid or soft foods 6–8 months (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 82 | 69 | 75 | 68 | 63 | 69 | 56 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Exclusive breastfeeding (< 6 months, %) [27] | Both Sexes | 38 | 30 | 55 | 29 | 32 | 28 | 52 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Underweight, moderate and severe, under-5 (%) [26] | Both Sexes | 1.6 | – | 17.2* | 12.8 | 2.7 | 26.2 | WHO | 2017 | ||
Stunting, moderate and severe, under-5 (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 11 | 6 | 34 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 36 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Wasting, moderate and severe, under-5 (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 16 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Overweight, moderate and severe, under-5 (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 7 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 4 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents, 5–19 years (%) [27] | Males | 34.6 | 28.1 | – | – | 20.2 | 30.4 | 9.6 | UNICEF | 2016 | |
Females | 32.6 | 24.2 | – | – | 20.7 | 18.8 | 8.1 | ||||
Obese, under 20 years (%) | Males | 5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 20.7 | 3.8 | 2.5 | Ng, 2014 | 2013 | |
Females | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4 | 3.2 | 11 | 3.5 | 2.6 | ||||
Socioeconomic Status | Youth literacy rate, aged 15–24 years (%) [27] | Males | 98 | 100 | 87 | 69 | 91 | 99 | 88 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 |
Females | 99 | 99 | 85 | 55 | 88 | 97 | 80 | ||||
Primary school, net attendance ratio (%) [27] | Males | 96 | 94 | 78 | 72 | 94 | 97 | UNICEF | 2008–2013 | ||
Females | 96 | 95 | 79 | 68 | 93 | 97 | |||||
Secondary school, net enrolment ratio (%) [27] | Males | 74 | 93 | 29 | – | 74 | 71 | 63 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Females | 77 | 92 | 30 | – | 74 | 76 | 66 | ||||
Out-of-school rate of children of primary school age (%) [27] | Males | 5 | 4 | 17 | – | 6 | 6 | 5 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Females | 4 | 4 | 19 | – | 8 | 6 | 6 | ||||
Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15–24) [28] | Both Sexes | 18.5 | 18.5 | 14.2 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 10.4 | World Bank | 2017 | ||
Child labour (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 11 | – | 26 | 32 | 7 | – | – | UNICEF | 2010–2016 | |
Access to Improved Water and Sanitation | Improved water, total (% of population with access) [27] | Both Sexes | 96 | 95 | 53 | 62 | 93 | 94 | 88 | UNICEF | 2015 |
Improved sanitation facilities, total (% of population with access) [27] | Both Sexes | 86 | 93 | 30 | 27 | 89 | 77 | 46 | UNICEF | 2015 | |
Health Care Services and Essential Commodities/Medicine | Skilled birth attendance, aged 15–49 years (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 96 | 99 | 60 | 52 | 86 | 95 | 73 | UNICEF | 2013–2016 |
Measles (MCV immunization on coverage among 1 year olds) (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 92 | 93 | 76 | 67 | 89 | 93 | 84 | UNICEF | 2016 | |
DPT3 immunization coverage among 1-year olds (%) [27] | Both Sexes | 90 | 90 | 80 | 67 | 88 | 94 | 86 | UNICEF | 2016 | |
Antenatal care coverage (4+ visits) (aged 15–49 years) (%) [27] | Females | 90 | 87 | 52 | 52 | 66 | 74 | 46 | UNICEF | 2016 | |
Fertility Rates/Women Empowerment | Adolescent birth rate, number of births per 1000 adolescent girls aged 15–19 years [27] | Females | 74 | 29 | 113 | 130 | 41 | 21 | 44 | UNICEF | 2009–2014 |
Percent of women giving birth by age 18 (%) [27] | Females | 19 | 4 | 26 | 29 | 8 | 7 | 20 | UNICEF | 2011–2016 | |
Married or in-union women of reproductive age who have their need for family planning satisfied with modern methods (%) [26] | Females | 83 | 75.1 | 52.2* | 63.6 | 89.7 | 75.1 | WHO | 2018 | ||
Unmet need for family planning (%) (aged 15–49 years) [26] | Females | 9.4 | 10.4 | 24.4* | 17.7 | 5.8 | 13.3 | WHO | 2010 | ||
Gender Inequality | Percent of women aged 20–24 years who were married by age 15 (%) [27] | Females | 1 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 2 | UNICEF | 2010–2016 | ||
Percent of women aged 20–24 years who were married by age 18 (%) [27] | Females | 11 | 35 | 41 | 17 | 15 | UNICEF | 2010–2016 | |||
Prevalence of FGM/C (% of girls and women of reproductive age 15–49 years experiencing FGM/C) [27] | Females | 45 | 31 | UNICEF | 2004–2016 | ||||||
Income Inequality | GNI per capita (U.S.$) [38] | 8200 | 22,651 | 1454** | 7246 | 10,170 | 1743 | World Bank | 2017 | ||
Urbanization | % of total population urbanized [27] | 80 | 64 | 31 | 45 | 63 | 57 | 33 | UNICEF | 2016 |
Multivariable determinants of NCDs among adolescents and adults
Domain/Indicator | Outcome: DALYs attributed to NCDs among adolescents (rate, 2015) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bivariate | Multivariable | ||||
R-Square | Β estimate (Standard error) P-value | StB | Β estimate (Standard error) P-value | ||
Level 3 Model- Distal: Macro Structural Factors a | |||||
Conflict | Source & Year | ||||
Battle related deaths (total; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 1% | −23.5 (16.92) 0.1673 | − 0.10 | – |
Internally displaced persons (total; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 1% | −21.8 (24.92) 0.3838 | − 0.07 | – |
Refugee populations by country of asylum (total; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 16% | −58.3 (10.31) <.0001 | − 0.39 | −19.8 (8.13) 0.0156 |
Governance | |||||
Political stability/absence of terrorism | World Bank, 2013 | 0% | −11.3 (60.98) 0.8534 | −0.01 | – |
Government effectiveness 1 | World Bank, 2013 | 11% | −264.4 (56.03) <.0001 | −0.33 | − 442.4 (44.27) <.0001 |
Corruption 1 | World Bank, 2013 | 10% | −245.9 (56.74) <.0001 | −0.31 | – |
Environment | |||||
Frequency of natural disasters (total; log) | 0% | −72.2 (84.02) 0.3914 | −0.07 | – | |
Cost damage of natural disasters (USD; log) | 2% | −11.7 (6.91) 0.0924 | −0.13 | – | |
Distal Model R2: 38% | |||||
Level 2 Model- Intermediate I: National Structural Factors b | |||||
Infrastructure and Urbanization | |||||
Urbanization (% of population; log) | UNICEF, 2016 | 14% | − 597.0 (111.74) <.0001 | −0.37 | − 261.0 (120.39) 0.0316 |
Access to electricity (% population; cubed) | World Bank | 9% | −0.00057 (0.00014) <.0001 | −0.30 | − 0.0005 (0.00016) 0.0014 |
Population Density | |||||
Population density (people per m2 land; log) | World Bank | 2% | −91.2 (43.15) 0.036 | −0.16 | −52.8 (33.41) 0.1162 |
Telecommunications Access | |||||
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 3% | − 266.1 (114.17) 0.0209 | −0.17 | – |
Internet users (per 100 people; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 6% | −147.7 (43.14) 0.0008 | −0.25 | – |
National Wealth | |||||
GDP per capita, 5 year lag (USD; log) 3 | World Bank, 2014 | 11% | −172.9 (37.70) <.0001 | −0.33 | – |
Health Spending | |||||
Government expenditure on health, 2 year lag (% of total health expenditure; log) | WHO, 2013 | 1% | −165.0 (151.16) 0.2766 | −0.08 | – |
Total health expenditure per capita, 2 year lag (PPP, NCU per USD; log) 3 | WHO, 2013 | 12% | − 169.7 (34.83) <.0001 | −0.34 | −111.3 (62.56) 0.0771 |
Intermediate I Model R2: 47% | |||||
Level 3- Intermediate II: Community, Household & Individual Factors c | |||||
Socioeconomic Status (Education and Employment) | |||||
Adult literacy rate (% of adults ages 15+ years; cubed) | World Bank | 1% | −0.00024 (0.00022) 0.2767 | −0.10 | |
Primary school enrolment ratio (gross %; log) | World Bank, 2003–2014 | 1% | 719.0 (499.43) 0.1519 | 0.11 | |
Secondary school enrolment ratio (gross %; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 7% | − 496.9 (144.18) 0.0007 | −0.27 | |
Employment to population ratio (% of adults 15+ years; log) | World Bank | 4% | 724.5 (282.59) 0.0112 | 0.19 | |
Youth Empowerment | |||||
Youth literacy rate (% total 15–24 year olds; squared) | World Bank, 2014 | 3% | −0.1 (0.03) 0.0718 | −0.16 | – |
Female youth literacy rate (% 15–24 year olds; squared) | World Bank, 2014 | 2% | −0.04 (0.03) 0.1169 | − 0.14 | – |
Youth unemployment rate (% total 15–24 year olds; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 1% | −95.3 (76.09) 0.212 | − 0.10 | – |
Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1000 females aged 15–19 years; log) | World Bank, 2009–2014 | 12% | 256.0 (52.22) <.0001 | 0.34 | 224.4 (66.17) 0.0009 |
Women Empowerment and Gender Equity | |||||
Total fertility rate (births per woman; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 7% | 454.5 (122.04) 0.0003 | 0.27 | – |
Adult female literacy rate (% females 15+ years who can read and write; cubed) | World Bank | 0.5% | −0.016 (0.021) 0.4481 | −0.07 | – |
Women in parliament (% of parliamentary seats held by women; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 4% | −92.3 (35.97) 0.0111 | −0.19 | – |
Secondary school gender parity index (ratio of girls to boys in secondary education; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 3% | − 877.5 (416.20) 0.0366 | −0.17 | − 700.4 (341.58) 0.0422 |
Tertiary school gender parity index (ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 6% | − 206.4 (66.82) 0.0024 | − 0.25 | – |
Income Equity | |||||
GINI index (log)2 | World Bank, 2012 | 12% | 1072.6 (269.17) 0.0001 | 0.35 | – |
Access to Health Services and Commodities | |||||
Out of pocket expenditure as % of total health expenditure (log) | WHO, 2013 | 0.06% | −23.7 (75.81) 0.7544 | −0.02 | – |
Physician density per 1000 population (log) | WHO, 2003–2013 | 10% | − 177.1 (47.11) 0.0003 | − 0.32 | – |
Intermediate II Model R2: 62% |
Domain/Indicator | Outcome: DALYs attributed to NCDs among adults (rate, 2015) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bivariate | Multivariable | ||||
R-Square | Β estimate (Standard error) P-value | StB | Β estimate (Standard error) P-value | ||
Level 3 Model- Distal: Macro Structural Factors a | |||||
Conflict | Source & Year | ||||
Battle related deaths (total; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 9% | 492.95 (242.94) 0.0487 | 0.17 | – |
Internally displaced persons (total; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 0% | 31.75 (218.61) 0.8847 | 0.01 | – |
Refugee populations by country of asylum (total; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 3% | −262.897 (127.60) 0.0410 | - 0.13 | |
Governance | |||||
Political stability/ absence of terrorism | World Bank, 2013 | 2% | − 960.160 (512.51) 0.0673 | −0.13 | – |
Government effectiveness 1 | World Bank, 2013 | 7% | − 1831.88 (498.67) 0.0003 | −0.26 | – |
Corruption 1 | World Bank, 2013 | 4% | − 1288.79 (507.14) 0.0119 | −0.18 | −1288.79 (507.14) 0.0119 |
Environment | |||||
Frequency of natural disasters (total; log) | 0.3% | −487.76 (751.42) 0.5172 | −0.05 | – | |
Cost damage of natural disasters (USD; log) | 0.8% | − 257.35 (403.53) 0.5266 | −0.09 | – | |
Distal Model R2: 4% | |||||
Level 2 Model- Intermediate I: National Structural Factors b | |||||
Infrastructure and Urbanization | |||||
Urbanization (% of population; log) | UNICEF, 2016 | 6% | − 3405.14 (1004.45) .0009 | −0.24 | − 2668.44 (1064.88) 0.0131 |
Access to electricity (% population; cubed) | World Bank | 5% | −0.0037 (0.0012) <.0001 | −0.22 | 0.0025 (0.0015) 0.1040 |
Population Density | |||||
Population density (people per m2 land; log) | World Bank | 0.8% | − 445.2 (378.10) 0.2406 | −0.09 | – |
Telecommunications Access | |||||
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 15% | − 5158.49 (919.96) <.0001 | −0.38 | – |
Internet users (per 100 people; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 5% | − 1098.425 (376.30) 0.0040 | −0.17 | – |
National Wealth | |||||
GDP per capita, 5 year lag (USD; log) 2 | World Bank, 2014 | 9% | − 1168.48 (271.40) <.0001 | −0.25 | − 1515.97 (586.38) 0.0105 |
Health Spending | |||||
Government expenditure on health, 2 year lag (% of total health expenditure; log) | WHO, 2013 | 4% | − 2627.68 (1032.80) 0.0118 | −0.15 | – |
Total health expenditure per capita, 2 year lag (PPP, NCU per USD; log)2 | WHO, 2013 | 8% | −999.81 (250.55) <.0001 | −0.23 | – |
Intermediate I Model R2: 14% | |||||
Level 3- Intermediate II: Community, Household & Individual Factors c | |||||
Socioeconomic Status (Education and Employment) | |||||
Adult literacy rate (% of adults ages 15+ years; cubed) | World Bank | 0.7% | −0.0015 (0.0016) 0.3635 | −0.07 | – |
Primary school enrolment ratio (gross %; log) | World Bank, 2003–2014 | 0.1% | 1311.79 (3489.26) 0.7074 | 0.02 | – |
Secondary school enrolment ratio (gross %; log) | UNICEF, 2013 | 1% | − 1465.82 (990.54) 0.1410 | −0.09 | 4166.21 (2642.13) 0.1182 |
Employment to population ratio (% of adults 15+ years; log) | World Bank | 0.2% | 1325.91 (2539.92) 0.6023 | 0.04 | |
Youth Empowerment | |||||
Youth literacy rate (% total 15–24 year olds; squared)4 | World Bank, 2014 | 2% | −0.3266 (0.2154) 0.1320 | −0.11 | – |
Female youth literacy rate (% 15–24 year olds; squared)4 | World Bank, 2014 | 1% | −0.2504 (0.1997) 0.2125 | − 0.09 | – |
Youth unemployment rate (% total 15–24 year olds; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 0% | 1.5364 (672.15) 0.9982 | 0.0002 | – |
Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1000 females aged 15–19 years; log) | World Bank, 2009–2014 | 0% | −81.08 (485.13) 0.8675 | −0.012 | – |
Women Empowerment and Gender Equity | |||||
Total fertility rate (births per woman; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 0.7% | 1223.67 (1106.03) 0.2700 | 0.08 | – |
Adult female literacy rate (% females 15+ years who can read and write; cubed) | World Bank | 0.3% | −0.0010 (0.0015) 0.5232 | −0.05 | – |
Women in parliament (% of parliamentary seats held by women; log) | World Bank, 2014 | 2% | − 1270.29 (714.36) 0.0771 | −0.13 | – |
Secondary school gender parity index (ratio of girls to boys in secondary education; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 2% | − 5512.67 (2829.38) 0.0532 | −0.12 | −18,846.97 (5432.46) 0.0008 |
Tertiary school gender parity index (ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education; log) | World Bank, 2013 | 2% | − 1268.27 (834.61) 0.1308 | −0.09 | 3176.62 (1776.29) 0.0770 |
Income Equity | |||||
GINI index (log) | World Bank, 2012 | 0% | 312.54 (2260.12) 0.8903 | 0.01 | – |
Access to Health Services and Commodities | |||||
Out of pocket expenditure as % of total health expenditure (log) | WHO, 2013 | 0.5% | − 513.4 (524.81) 0.3292 | −0.07 | – |
Physician density per 1000 population (log) | WHO, 2003–2013 | 3% | − 715.62 (366.23) 0.0529 | − 0.15 | 1786.88 (844.88) 0.0371 |
Intermediate II Model R2: 31% |