Background
Methods
Data
Measures
Outcome variable
Independent variables
Estimation of self-assessed life expectancy
Statistical analyses
Results
Descriptive statistics
Variable | Aged 50–55 (SD) | Aged 55–60 (SD) | Aged 60–65 (SD) | All ages (SD) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Proportion (in %) | 37.08 | 35.21 | 27.72 | 100 |
Age | 51.94 (1.44) | 56.79 (1.4) | 61.92 (1.57) | 56.41 (4.25) |
Male | 0.55 (0.5) | 0.54 (0.5) | 0.58 (0.5) | 0.55 (0.5) |
Obese | 0.12 (0.33) | 0.13 (0.34) | 0.19 (0.39) | 0.14 (0.35) |
Rural | 0.86 (0.35) | 0.85 (0.36) | 0.8 (0.4) | 0.84 (0.37) |
Low education level | 0.60 (0.49) | 0.59 (0.50) | 0.61 (0.49) | 0.60 (0.49) |
Employed | 0.71 (0.46) | 0.6 (0.49) | 0.36 (0.48) | 0.57 (0.5) |
Current smoker | 0.08 (0.27) | 0.1 (0.3) | 0.05 (0.23) | 0.08 (0.27) |
Alcohol consumption | 0.48 (0.5) | 0.44 (0.5) | 0.32 (0.47) | 0.42 (0.49) |
Physical activity (Exercise) | 0.2 (0.4) | 0.23 (0.43) | 0.2 (0.4) | 0.21 (0.41) |
Time horizon (to 70)a | 18.06 (1.44) | 13.21 (1.4) | 8.08 (1.57) | 13.59 (4.25) |
SSPs at target age 70 | 0.71(0.26) | 0.76 (0.22) | 0.76 (0.26) | 0.74 (0.25) |
SSPs at target age 75 | 0.6 (0.27) | 0.66 (0.25) | 0.71 (0.29) | 0.65 (0.27) |
SSPs at target age 80 | 0.53 (0.27) | 0.58 (0.27) | 0.63 (0.29) | 0.57 (0.28) |
SSPs at target age 85 | 0.45 (0.27) | 0.48 (0.27) | 0.56 (0.3) | 0.49 (0.28) |
Estimation of self-assessed life expectancy
Category | Estimated SLE | National average | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
Male 50–54 | 79.41 (0.58) | 73.5 | 5.92a |
Female 50–54 | 79.31 (1.04) | 75.9 | 3.41a |
Male 54–59 | 79.61 (0.65) | 75.2 | 4.41a |
Female 54–59 | 78.92 (1.20) | 77.1 | 1.82 |
Male 60–64 | 79.91 (1.11) | 77.4 | 2.51b |
Female 60–64 | 79.30 (1.72) | 78.7 | 0.60 |
Determinants of the self-assessed life expectancy
Number of components | AIC | Log-L |
---|---|---|
2 | 1440.088 | − 674.0438 |
3 | 1453.651 | − 653.8253 |
4 | 1426.568 | − 613.284 |
Concomitant variables | component 2c | component 3c | component 4c |
---|---|---|---|
Chronic condition | − 1.01 (0.63) | − 0.99b (0.45) | −1.71a (0.52) |
Health condition limits working ability | 2.16b (0.87) | 0.2 (0.52) | 0.13 (0.58) |
Deteriorating health | −0.37 (0.87) | −1.36b (0.56) | −0.4 (0.54) |
Poor health | −2.07a (0.78) | 0.16 (0.52) | 0.56 (0.56) |
Mother alive | 1.32b (0.63) | − 15.47 (781.08) | 1.46a (0.53) |
Father alive | −3.49 (6.15) | −0.43 (0.97) | −16.16 (2722.68) |
Both parents alive | −3.54 (11513) | 16.22 (1585.7) | 16.8 (1585.7) |
Intercept | −0.09 (0.44) | 0.89b (0.38) | −0.12 (0.42) |
Variables | Component 1 (SD) [24.73%]d | Component 2 (SD) [20.97%]d | Component 3 (SD) [33.33%]d | Component 4 (SD) [20.97%]d |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age | −0.3a (0.04) | 0.21a (0.04) | 0.45a (0.06) | 0.75a (0.06) |
Male | −48.45a (4.19) | −6.18b (2.64) | 30.85a (5.16) | 11.65a (4.15) |
Male x Age | 0.83a (0.07) | 0.12b (0.05) | −0.54a (0.09) | −0.15b (0.07) |
In a couple | 0.65b (0.28) | 2.71a (0.27) | −0.36 (0.41) | −1.75a (0.52) |
Employed | 2.32a (0.42) | 5.23a (0.29) | −0.78c (0.45) | −5.23a(0.56) |
Low school level | 0.33 (0.3) | −0.88a (0.3) | −2.51a (0.43) | −3.46a (0.43) |
Income per capita | −0.38b (0.15) | 1.29a (0.11) | −0.81a (0.28) | 1.11a (0.27) |
Squared income per capita | 0.03a (0.01) | −0.11a (0.01) | 0.05b(0.02) | −0.12a (0.02) |
Obese | −1.85a (0.37) | 2.95a (0.2) | −1.75a (0.48) | 0.02 (0.36) |
Current smoke | 8.46a (0.73) | −5.62a (0.41) | −6.21a (0.81) | 4.91a (0.58) |
Alcohol consumption | −0.67c (0.34) | −2.29a (0.23) | −2.4a (0.43) | 2.45a (0.36) |
Does physical exercises | −2.05a (0.31) | −2.48a (0.25) | 1.85a (0.53) | 4.56a (0.49) |
No diet | −2.86a (0.28) | 5.2a (0.26) | 2.39a (0.38) | 3.8a (0.37) |
Rural | −6.03a (0.51) | −1.67a (0.31) | 1.48a (0.55) | 1.25a (0.45) |
Toilet with flush | 1.72a (0.33) | 1.43a (0.26) | −2.48a (0.46) | 1.6a (0.47) |
Underground water | −2.46a (0.32) | 7.98a (0.25) | −2.42a (0.44) | 1.06b (0.47) |
Septic tank | −4.16a (0.32) | 2.88a (0.31) | −0.63 (0.54) | 5.22a (0.55) |
Intercept | 105.15a (2.69) | 54.67b (2.46) | 60.01a (3.84) | 32.5a (3.73) |
Sigma | 0.89 | 0.97 | 1.42 | 1.25 |
Variables | Frequency (%) | Age (SD) | Expected life expectancy (SD) | Probability of classification (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Component 1 | 24.73 | 56 (0.52) | 79.51 (0.48) | 86.83 |
Component 2 | 20.97 | 57.02 (0.55) | 78.89 (0.49) | 80.32 |
Component 3 | 33.33 | 56.78 (0.46) | 80.02 (0.36) | 85.3 |
Component 4 | 20.97 | 55.71 (0.57) | 77.79 (0.61) | 90.56 |