Background
Methods
Drafting adoption scenarios (Delphi methodology)
Identified themes (result of step 2–4) | |
Less or even no interleukin-2, More automatic process, Attitude of clinicians, Costs of TIL, Take–over by a commercial party, Effectiveness TIL and others, Target population, Long term effectiveness, Attitude of patients, Unexpected clinical risks, Influence of pharmacy, Placement of TIL in treatment strategy | |
Name of scenario | Full description of scenarios |
Base case | If TIL shows better survival rates (at least 10% improvement) compared to ipilimumab, TIL will be implemented in specialized melanoma centers. |
Competition | Competing (immuno)therapies are equal in costs but 10% more effective compared to TIL. |
TIL more effective | The effectiveness of TIL has increased with 10% (clinically relevant) due to research developments. |
Biomarker | A biomarker, being able to select patients for TIL, is available. |
TCR therapy | TCR therapy dominates TIL treatment in advanced melanoma, regardless other treatment modalities. |
Patients unconvinced | Patients prefer the competing therapies over TIL based on complete information on toxicities and effectiveness. |
2nd line treatment | TIL is implemented as a second line treatment after anti PD1 inhibitors in metastatic melanoma. |
3rd line treatment | TIL is implemented as a third line (last resort) treatment in metastatic melanoma. |
Combination therapy | TIL is used in combination with other immune or personalized therapies (i.e. nivolumab or vemurafenib). |
Clinicians unconvinced | Clinicians are not willing to implement TIL because of one of the previous stated reasons. |
Low cost competition | If TIL turns out to be cost-effective, pharmaceutical companies will lower the prices of competing immunotherapies. |
Influence by companies | Arrangements between pharmaceutical companies and hospitals and/or doctors, negatively affect patient selection for TIL therapy. |
Less IL2 treatment | Additional interleukin-2 treatment after infusion of TIL is not be necessary anymore. |
TIL production outsourced | Production of TIL is of interest for the pharmaceutical market and is outsourced by a commercial company. |
Automatic TIL production | Production of TIL is less expensive (30% reduction) due to more automatic process steps. |
Questions | |
What would be the minimal effectiveness of TIL leading to accept TIL as a standard therapy for you? Expressed in one-year survival rate (%)? | |
What would be the risk of developing other types of cancer such as lymphomas by activating the immune system by injecting TILs (%)? | |
In which level do you agree with the following statement: TIL treatment provides significantly better quality of life compared to ipilimumab. | |
Could you estimate the percentage of the eligible patients (metastatic melanoma patients) you think is aware of TIL therapy as a potential treatment (in %) | |
What would be the main reason for clinicians to be unconvinced of introducing TIL therapy? |
Estimating the likelihood of scenarios
Calculating the cost-effectiveness
Selection of scenarios
The base case model
Incorporating the selected scenarios
Adapted parameter | Initial deterministic value | Deterministic value | SE | Distribution | Source / Assumption |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario: “TIL more effective” | |||||
PFS TIL | 0.234 | 0.257 | 0.068 | Beta | Assumption: 10% increase of survival rates as described in the scenario |
OS TIL | 0.412 | 0.453 | 0.046 | Beta | |
Scenario: “Combination therapy” | |||||
PFS TIL | 0.234 | 0.264 | 0.089 | Beta | 12mo PFS 4/13 patients [19] SE was kept the same as the initial model |
OS TIL | 0.412 | 0.499 | 0.098 | Beta | 12mo OS 9/13 patients [19] SE was kept the same as the initial model |
Costs TIL | € 62.000 | € 107.744 | €13.743 | Gamma | |
Failure rate | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.015 | Beta | 1/13 received no TIL due to progression during TIL growth; 1 patient did not receive ipilimumab after TIL due to dose-limiting colitis [19]. Assumed to be similar as basecase model. |
Scenario: “Low cost competition” | |||||
Drug costs Ipilimumab | € 90.100 | € 71.184 | €9080 | Gamma | Reduced price for ipilimumab in such a way that TIL is not cost-effective anymore with a willingness to pay threshold of 30.000. A reduction of 21%. |
Scenario: “Less IL2 treatment” | |||||
Total TIL costs | € 62.000 | € 61.450 | € 7838 | Gamma | Assuming the decrescendo regimen described by Andersen et al. 2016 6 vials of Aldesleukin (Novartis) [20] 550 euros reduced compared to the initial costs. |
Utility decrements for side effects in providing TIL therapy due to toxicity | 0.145 | 0.145 | 0.020 | Beta | It was assumed to be the same as in the initial model because the availability of data on toxicity after a high or decrescendo dose scheme is limited. |
PFS TIL | 0.234 | 0.234 | 0.089 | Beta | Assumed to be the same as no data shows that efficacy of TIL therapy decreased with a lowered dose IL2. |
OS TIL | 0.412 | 0.412 | 0.098 | Beta | |
Scenario: “TIL production outsourced” | |||||
TIL production costs | € 35.500 | € 106.500 | €11.990 | Gamma | Since no commercial price is available, we made an assumption based on expert opinion (WvH and JvB) that commercial costs of TIL are at least 3 times higher. Taking into account the necessary logistical arrangements and general costs when starting a biotech company |
Scenario: “Automatic TIL production” | |||||
TIL production costs | € 35.500 | € 24.850 | 1268 | Gamma | Assumption: 30% decrease of production costs as described in the scenario. |
Data analysis and visualization
Results
Characteristics of the respondents
Number of respondents | 29 (100%) |
Function | |
Medical oncologist | 22 (76%) |
Director | 3 (10%) |
Head cell production | 1 (3%) |
Consultant | 1 (3%) |
Clinical and translational research | 2 (7%) |
Mean experience with melanoma, years (range) | 16.38 (1–35) |
Mean experience with TIL therapy, years (range) | 2.72 (0–20) |
Level of familiarity with TIL therapy | |
Unfamiliar | 0 (0%) |
Accidentally familiar | 3 (10%) |
Familiar | 15 (52%) |
Former expert | 3 (10%) |
Expert | 8 (28%) |
Employed in: | |
Australia | 1 (3%) |
Belgium | 1 (3%) |
Denmark | 2 (7%) |
Germany | 3 (10%) |
Israel | 1 (3%) |
Italy | 1 (3%) |
Netherlands | 14 (48%) |
Poland | 1 (3%) |
Portugal | 1 (3%) |
Spain | 1 (3%) |
UK | 1 (3%) |
US | 1 (3%) |
N/A | 1 (3%) |
Likelihood of the scenarios
Mean likelihood (median) | |||
---|---|---|---|
All respondents (n = 29) | Only familiar and experts (n = 23) | ≥ 1 year experience (n = 10) | |
Base case scenario | |||
“Base case” | 54.3% (50%) | 51.8 (45%) | 55% (55%) |
“What if” scenarios | |||
“Competition” | 46.4% (50%) | 47.6% (50%) | 42.5% (30%) |
“TIL more effective” | 51.9% (50%) | 52.4% (50%) | 52% (50%) |
“Biomarker” | 36.7% (35%) | 38.3% (35%) | 39.5% (35%) |
“TCR therapy” | 32.0% (30%) | 29.3% (25%) | 22.5% (20%) |
“Patients unconvinced” | 52.9% (60%) | 53.6% (63%) | 45% (50%) |
“2nd line treatment” | 52.8% (50%) | 53.7% (50%) | 53.5% (50%) |
“3rd line treatment” | 54.5% (50%) | 56.8% (50%) | 67% (68%) |
“Combination therapy” | 57.3% (63%) | 56.7% (60%) | 57% (60%) |
“Clinicians unconvinced” | 50.6% (50%) | 51.6% (50%) | 51% (50%) |
“Low cost competition” | 29.5% (20%) | 28.7% (15%) | 27.5% (23%) |
“Influence by companies” | 50.00% (58%) | 51.7% (55%) | 49% (55%) |
“Less IL2 treatment” | 35.9% (50.%) | 39.1% (50%) | 40.5% (50%) |
“TIL production outsourced” | 53.0% (50%) | 51.5% (50%) | 44% (45%) |
“Automatic TIL production” | 58.4% (63%) | 57.0% (60%) | 62% (70%) |