Background
Methods
Study design
Measures
Past month cigarette smoking
Demographics
The timing of the dropout
Reasons for leaving school
Analysis
Results
Socio-demographic profile of the participants
Total | Gender | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boy | Girl | |||||
Characteristics | % /Mean (SD) | n | %/Mean (SD) | n | %/Mean (SD) | n |
Total | 100 | 4222 | 58 | 2506 | 39.7 | 1716 |
Past month cigarette smoking | ||||||
Smoker | 50.2 | 2056 | 61.6 | 1488 | 33.9 | 568 |
Non – smoker | 49.8 | 2037 | 38.4 | 928 | 66.1 | 1109 |
Reasons for leaving school | ||||||
No reason for leaving school | 20 | 845 | 20.8 | 520 | 18.9 | 325 |
You were pregnant or made someone pregnant | 18.6 | 787 | 17.8 | 447 | 19.8 | 340 |
Working to help the family | 16.8 | 708 | 17.4 | 435 | 15.9 | 273 |
Not enough money to pay for school fees | 18.4 | 777 | 18.1 | 484 | 18.8 | 323 |
Had to help with looking after the house and siblings | 5.1 | 214 | 4.9 | 123 | 5.3 | 91 |
Problems with school work, teachers or the learners | 10.4 | 441 | 10.7 | 267 | 10.1 | 174 |
The school was too far | 4.4 | 185 | 4.5 | 112 | 4.3 | 73 |
Other | 12.3 | 518 | 12.4 | 311 | 12.1 | 207 |
Province | ||||||
Gauteng | 23 | 971 | 26.6 | 667 | 17.7 | 304 |
Kwazulu Natal | 27.3 | 1153 | 24.1 | 603 | 32.1 | 550 |
Mpumalanga | 22 | 930 | 19.9 | 498 | 25.2 | 432 |
Western Cape | 27.7 | 1168 | 29.4 | 738 | 25.1 | 430 |
Race | ||||||
Black African | 72.5 | 2995 | 70.2 | 1716 | 75.9 | 1279 |
Coloured | 21.8 | 899 | 23.7 | 580 | 18.9 | 319 |
Indian | 1.7 | 70 | 2.2 | 54 | 0.9 | 16 |
White | 1.4 | 58 | 1.2 | 29 | 1.7 | 29 |
Other | 2.6 | 108 | 2.7 | 65 | 2.6 | 43 |
Area | ||||||
Rural | 46.1 | 1673 | 44.6 | 953 | 48.3 | 720 |
Urban | 30.4 | 1103 | 32.7 | 699 | 27.1 | 404 |
Peri-urban | 23.5 | 855 | 22.8 | 487 | 24.7 | 368 |
Age | 17.4 (1.6) | 4215 | 17.4 (1.9) | 2458 | 17.6 (1.7) | 1683 |
Timing of the dropout | ||||||
Grade 7 or lower | 18.5 | 747 | 19.4 | 461 | 17.3 | 286 |
Grade 8 | 16.8 | 677 | 17.5 | 416 | 15.8 | 261 |
Grade 9 | 17.2 | 691 | 18.7 | 45 | 14.9 | 246 |
Grade 10 | 20 | 805 | 19.6 | 465 | 20.6 | 340 |
Grade 11 | 16.8 | 678 | 15.6 | 370 | 18.7 | 308 |
Grade 12 | 10.7 | 429 | 9.2 | 219 | 12.7 | 210 |
Prevalence of past month tobacco smoking
Characteristics | Past month tobacco smoking | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
% | 95% confidence interval | n | ||
Total | 50.2 | 4222 | ||
Gender | p < .05 | |||
Boya | 61.6 | [59.6–63.5] | a > b | 2416 |
Girlb | 33.9 | [31.6–36.2] | 1677 | |
Age | >.05 | |||
13 years | 48.2 | [41.4–55.2] | 199 | |
14 years | 52.5 | [46.4–58.5] | 261 | |
15 years | 51.5 | [45.5–57.6] | 260 | |
16 years | 50.2 | [45.4–55.0] | 414 | |
17 years | 54.9 | [50.5–59.1] | 505 | |
18 years | 49.6 | [45.9–53.4] | 681 | |
19 years | 49.5 | [47.2–51.8] | 1772 | |
Province | p < .05 | |||
Gauteng a | 57.7 | [54.5–60.8] | a > b; a > c; a < d | 955 |
Kwazulu Natalb | 34.4 | [31.7–37.2] | b < d | 1157 |
Mpumalangac | 39.5 | [36.4–42.6] | c < d | 930 |
Western Caped | 69.5 | [66.7–72.1] | 1143 | |
Race | p < .05 | |||
Africana | 42.8 | [41.0–44.5] | a < b; a < c; a < d | 2975 |
Colouredb | 74.6 | [71.6–77.3] | b > e | 881 |
Indianc | 65.2 | [53.3–75.5] | 69 | |
Whited | 59.3 | [46.4–71.0] | 59 | |
Othere | 45.8 | [36.6–55.3] | 107 | |
Area | p < .05 | |||
Rurala | 44.4 | [42.0–46.8] | a < b | 1659 |
Urbanb | 56.8 | [53.9–59.8] | 1089 | |
Peri – urbanc | 50 | [46.6–53.4] | 844 | |
Timing of drop out | p < .05 | |||
Grade 7 or lowera | 49.3 | [45.8–52.9] | a < b; a < c; a > f | 746 |
Grade 8b | 56.8 | [53.0–60.4] | b > d; b > e; b > f | 680 |
Grade 9c | 58.2 | [54.5–61.9] | c > d; c > e; c > f | 682 |
Grade 10d | 48.3 | [44.8–51.8] | d > f | 797 |
Grade 11e | 46 | [42.3–49.8] | 667 | |
Grade 12f | 37 | [32.5–41.7] | 427 | |
Reasons for leaving school | p > .05 | |||
No reason for leaving school | 49.9 | [46.6–53.3] | 843 | |
Being pregnant or made someone pregnant | 51.1 | [47.6–54.6] | 775 | |
Working to help the family | 53.3 | [49.6–56.9] | 704 | |
Not enough money to pay for school fees | 49.2 | [45.7–52.8] | 768 | |
Had to help with looking after the house and your siblings | 50.9 | [44.3–57.5] | 216 | |
Problems with your school work, teachers or the learners | 46.4 | [41.8–51.1] | 435 | |
The school was too far | 47.6 | [40.5–54.8] | 185 | |
Other | 52.5 | [48.1–56.8] | 507 |
Development of the logistic regression model
Reasons for leaving school and cigarette smoking
95% Confidence Interval
| ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | S.E. | Lower | Exp (B) | Upper | p-value | |
Kwazulu Natal (ref Gauteng) | −1.082* | .328 | 0.178 | .339 | 0.644 | .001 |
Mpumalanga | 0.595 | .360 | 0.896 | 1.813 | 3.667 | .098 |
Western Cape | −0.786* | .343 | 0.233 | .456 | 0.893 | .022 |
Urban (ref rural) | 0.406 | .312 | 0.815 | 1.501 | 2.765 | .193 |
Peri-urban | 0.511 | .337 | 0.861 | 1.667 | 3.229 | .130 |
Timing of the dropout | −0.089* | .025 | 0.872 | .915 | 0.960 | .000 |
Coloured (ref black African) | 1.020* | .127 | 2.163 | 2.772 | 3.553 | .000 |
Indian | 0.245 | .332 | 0.667 | 1.277 | 2.447 | .461 |
White | 0.388 | .337 | 0.761 | 1.474 | 2.856 | .250 |
Other | 0.205 | .269 | 0.724 | 1.227 | 2.080 | .447 |
Boys versus Girls | −0.903* | .416 | 0.179 | .405 | 0.917 | .030 |
No reason for leaving school | −0.376 | .565 | 0.227 | .687 | 2.079 | .506 |
Being pregnant or made someone pregnant | 0.593 | .552 | 0.614 | 1.810 | 5.336 | .282 |
Working to help the family | 0.033 | .520 | 0.373 | 1.034 | 2.863 | .949 |
Not enough money to pay for school fees | −0.065 | .631 | 0.272 | .937 | 3.227 | .918 |
Had to help with looking after the house and siblings | 0.072 | .654 | 0.298 | 1.074 | 3.870 | .913 |
Problems with your school work, teachers or the learners | 0.159 | .571 | 0.383 | 1.172 | 3.591 | .781 |
The school was too far | −0.356 | .672 | 0.188 | .701 | 2.615 | .596 |
Other | −0.198 | .602 | 0.252 | .820 | 2.671 | .742 |
Gender * No reason for leaving school | 0.159 | .411 | 0.524 | 1.173 | 2.625 | .699 |
Gender * Being pregnant or made someone pregnant | −0.288 | .390 | 0.349 | .750 | 1.611 | .461 |
Gender * Working to help the family | −0.079 | .378 | 0.441 | .924 | 1.936 | .834 |
Gender * Not enough money to pay for school fees | −0.116 | .446 | 0.371 | .890 | 2.135 | .795 |
Gender * Had to help with looking after the house and siblings | −0.049 | .462 | 0.385 | .952 | 2.355 | .916 |
Gender * Problems with your school work, teachers or the learners | −0.329 | .422 | 0.315 | .720 | 1.647 | .437 |
Gender * The school was too far | 0.064 | .485 | 0.412 | 1.066 | 2.759 | .895 |
Gender * Other | −0.326 | .409 | 0.323 | .721 | 1.610 | .425 |
Being pregnant or made someone pregnant *Urban (rural ref) | −0.613* | .240 | 0.338 | .542 | 0.867 | .011 |
Being pregnant or made someone pregnant * Peri-urban | −0.246 | .262 | 0.468 | .782 | 1.308 | .349 |
Not enough money to pay for school fees * Urban (rural ref) | 1.449 | .734 | 1.011 | 4.259 | 17.942 | .048 |
Not enough money to pay for school fees *Peri-urban | −0.221 | .747 | 0.185 | .801 | 3.464 | .767 |
Other * Kwazulu Natal (ref Gauteng) | 0.595 | .336 | 0.939 | 1.814 | 3.505 | .077 |
Other * Mpumalanga | 1.325* | .360 | 1.858 | 3.761 | 7.616 | .000 |
Other * Western Cape | 0.353 | .341 | 0.729 | 1.423 | 2.778 | .302 |
Gender * Kwazulu Natal (ref Gauteng) | 0.125 | .225 | 0.728 | 1.133 | 1.761 | .580 |
Gender * Mpumalanga | −0.996* | .255 | 0.224 | .369 | 0.609 | .000 |
Gender * Western Cape | 0.532* | .231 | 1.083 | 1.703 | 2.676 | .021 |
Gender * Urban (rural ref) | 0.059 | .212 | 0.701 | 1.060 | 1.605 | .781 |
Gender * Peri-urban | −0.219 | .231 | 0.511 | .803 | 1.263 | .342 |
Gender * Not enough money to pay for school fees *Urban (rural ref) | −1.098* | .511 | 0.123 | .334 | 0.907 | .032 |
Gender * Not enough money to pay for school fees * Peri-urban | 0.283 | .500 | 0.498 | 1.328 | 3.541 | .571 |
Constant | 1.401 | .569 | 4.057 | .014 |
Gender * Not enough money to pay for school fees | B | S.E | Wald | p-value | Odds ratio | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Simple effects in different areas | ||||||
Urban | −1.214 | .506 | 5.769 | .016 | 0.297 | [0.110–0.800] |
Girls | −0.990 | .435 | 5.172 | .023 | 0.327 | [0.158–0.872] |
Boys | 0.193 | .270 | 0.511 | .476 | 1.213 | [0.715–2.057] |