Background
Methods
Analysis method
COI estimates over time
Model | Item | Elements used for calculation | Fixed or Varied |
---|---|---|---|
Fixed model | Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Fixed |
The population estimates | Varied | ||
Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2011) | |
Medical fees per examination | Fixed | ||
Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||
Total person-days of hospitalizations | Varied | ||
Morbidity cost | Average number of outpatients | Fixed | |
Average number of hospitalizations | Fixed | ||
Average length of stay | Fixed | ||
The population estimates | varied | ||
Labor-value | Fixed | ||
Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |
Life expectancy | Fixed | ||
Labor-value | Fixed | ||
Discount rate: 3% | Fixed | ||
・Logarithm model | Number of deaths | Mortality rate | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) |
・Linear model | The population estimates | Varied | |
・Mixed model | Direct cost | The expenses of outpatient visit and hospitalization | Fixed (Calculated using the unit cost in 2011) |
Medical fees per examination | Varied | ||
Total person-days of outpatient visit | Varied | ||
Total person-days of hospitalization | Varied | ||
Morbidity cost | Average number of outpatient visits | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) | |
(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | |||
Average number of hospitalizations | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) | ||
(minimum value: the previous value before 0) | |||
Average length of stay | Varied (Calculated using the trend line formula) | ||
(minimum value: 7.8 days) | |||
The population estimates | Varied | ||
Labor-value | Fixed | ||
Mortality cost | Number of deaths | Varied | |
Life expectancy | Fixed | ||
Labor-value | Fixed | ||
Discount rate: 3% | Fixed |
Results
COI estimates for 1996, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011
1996 | 1999 | 2002 | 2005 | 2008 | 2011 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population (thousand person) | 125,864 | 126,686 | 127,435 | 127,768 | 127,692 | 127,799 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 15.1% | 16.7% | 18.5% | 20.2% | 22.1% | 23.1% |
Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) | 2,219 | 2,260 | 2,443 | 2,465 | 2,486 | 2,737 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 51.7% | 51.1% | 47.7% | 48.2% | 47.7% | 49.6% |
Average age of death (year) | 64.1 | 63.6 | 62.9 | 63.6 | 63.4 | 64.0 |
Crude incidence rate (per 100 thousand, female) | 12.1 | 10.7 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 15.0 | NA |
Crude mortality rate (per 100 thousand, female) | 3.49 | 3.53 | 3.79 | 3.82 | 3.85 | 4.23 |
Fatality rate (female) | 0.29 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.26 | NA |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 15.8 | 26.0 | 20.1 | 25.3 | 33.6 | 31.0 |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 10.4 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 9.9 |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 69.9 | 74.5 | 98.8 | 97.8 | 101.3 | 119.0 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 16.6% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 31.5 | 33.0 | 40.4 | 39.7 | 40.7 | 43.5 |
COI (billion yen) | 96.1 | 110.6 | 131.7 | 133.4 | 145.5 | 159.9 |
COI estimates for 2014, 2017, and 2020 (fixed-model estimation)
Model | Item | 2011 | 2014 | 2017 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated population (thousand person) | 127,799 | 126,949 | 125,739 | 124,223 | |
[% of 65 years or older] | 23.1% | 26.1% | 28.0% | 29.1% | |
Fixed model | Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) | 2,737 | 2,816 | 2,900 | 2,953 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 49.6% | 53.0% | 55.5% | 56.8% | |
Average age of death (year) | 64.0 | 64.8 | 65.6 | 66.3 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 31.0 | 31.1 | 31.0 | 30.8 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 119.0 | 118.5 | 118.1 | 116.3 | |
[% of 65 years or older] | 17.5% | 19.3% | 20.5% | 20.8% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 43.5 | 42.1 | 40.7 | 39.4 | |
COI (billion yen) | 159.9 | 159.5 | 158.9 | 156.8 | |
Linear model | Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) | 2,737 | 2,611 | 2,598 | 2,553 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 49.6% | 48.3% | 47.4% | 45.0% | |
Average age of death (year) | 64.0 | 63.1 | 62.8 | 62.3 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 31.0 | 23.1 | 20.8 | 22.2 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 9.9 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 119.0 | 116.1 | 117.7 | 118.1 | |
[% of 65 years or older] | 17.5% | 16.4% | 15.5% | 13.9% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 43.5 | 44.5 | 45.3 | 46.3 | |
COI (billion yen) | 159.9 | 145.9 | 144.0 | 145.3 | |
Logarithm model | Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) | 2,737 | 2,714 | 2,772 | 2,812 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 49.6% | 52.6% | 54.0% | 54.6% | |
Average age of death (year) | 64.0 | 64.4 | 64.8 | 65.3 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 31.0 | 36.9 | 40.5 | 43.1 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.1 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 119.0 | 113.3 | 114.0 | 113.4 | |
[% of 65 years or older] | 17.5% | 19.0% | 19.4% | 19.2% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 43.5 | 41.7 | 41.1 | 40.3 | |
COI (billion yen) | 159.9 | 159.8 | 163.4 | 164.6 | |
Mixed model | Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) | 2,737 | 2,604 | 2,584 | 2,549 |
[% of 65 years or older] | 49.6% | 49.7% | 49.3% | 48.0% | |
Average age of death (year) | 64.0 | 63.5 | 63.3 | 63.2 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 31.0 | 27.7 | 26.6 | 28.4 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 9.9 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.4 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 119.0 | 113.3 | 113.5 | 113.0 | |
[% of 65 years or older] | 17.5% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 16.0% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 43.5 | 43.5 | 43.9 | 44.3 | |
COI (billion yen) | 159.9 | 148.8 | 146.9 | 147.8 |
COI estimates for 2014, 2017, and 2020 (linear-, logarithm-, and mixed-model estimations)
Discussion
25–29 | 30–34 | 35–39 | 40–44 | 45–49 | 50–54 | 55–59 | 60–64 | 65–69 | 70–74 | 75–79 | 80–84 | 85- | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of cervical cancer deaths (person) [19] | 1996 | 16 | 44 | 68 | 105 | 209 | 195 | 210 | 224 | 256 | 233 | 251 | 208 | 200 |
2011 | 19 | 68 | 118 | 202 | 219 | 221 | 228 | 304 | 231 | 220 | 281 | 270 | 356 | |
changing rate | 18.8% | 54.5% | 73.5% | 92.4% | 4.8% | 13.3% | 8.6% | 35.7% | -9.8% | -5.6% | 12.0% | 29.8% | 78.0% | |
Labor force participation rate (%) [16] | 1996 | 67.9 | 54.8 | 60.8 | 69.5 | 71.6 | 66.9 | 58.1 | 39.0 | 27.0 | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011 | 77.0 | 67.5 | 67.0 | 71.2 | 75.7 | 72.6 | 64.0 | 45.7 | 27.6 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
changing rate | 13.4% | 23.2% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 2.2% | -14.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Annual income per person (thousand yen) [15] | 1996 | 1817 | 1578 | 1802 | 2010 | 2036 | 1887 | 1555 | 969 | 664 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2011 | 2176 | 2050 | 2132 | 2321 | 2457 | 2323 | 1942 | 1173 | 678 | 230 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
changing rate | 19.8% | 29.9% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 20.7% | 23.1% | 24.9% | 21.1% | 2.1% | -7.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Annual labor value per person (thousand yen) | 1996 | 3584 | 4064 | 4288 | 4051 | 4078 | 3745 | 3414 | 2837 | 2297 | 1684 | 1181 | 742 | 304 |
2011 | 3493 | 4339 | 4900 | 5087 | 5004 | 4681 | 4305 | 3223 | 2608 | 2301 | 1837 | 1513 | 800 | |
changing rate | -2.5% | 6.8% | 14.3% | 25.6% | 22.7% | 25.0% | 26.1% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 36.6% | 55.5% | 103.9% | 163.2% |