Introduction
Related work
The adaptive epidemiological model
The standard SIR model
The adaptive DA-SIR model
Date | 3/7/20 | 3/9/20 | 3/11/20 | 3/13/20 | 3/15/20 | 3/17/20 | 3/19/20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(I_t^{DA}\) | 67,050 | 108,540 | 178,152 | 289,418 | 422,682 | 525,755 | 534,073 |
\(I_t\) | 85,190 | 137,428 | 221,401 | 355,915 | 570,180 | 908,422 | 1,434,817 |
\(R_t^{DA}\) | 17,311 | 47,899 | 97,212 | 176,569 | 303,921 | 507,379 | 830,126 |
\(R_t\) | 6705 | 10,582 | 14,595 | 21,030 | 30,945 | 37,853 | 49,265 |
The extended epidemiological assimilation scheme
The SITR model
Uncertainty in infection rates
Sensitivity analysis
\({\mathbf {P}}\) Value | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 100 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\({\mathbf {Q}}\) Value | 0.5 | 100 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
Treatment | 230,760 | 231,336 | 230,792 | 231,517 | 230,782 | 230,934 |
Infections | 210,311 | 2,102,126 | 2,102,549 | 2,102,431 | 2,102,576 | 2,102,603 |
MRSFE T | 888 | 863 | 901 | 807 | 829 | 836 |
MRSFE R | 39,476 | 39,291 | 39,431 | 39,381 | 39,459 | 39,469 |
Date | 03–09 | 03–16 | 04–12 | 04–19 | 05–21 | 05–28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infected Patients | 21 | 85 | 12,629 | 18,492 | 36,042 | 37,837 |
Treated Patients | 300 | 1458 | 71,650 | 101,575 | 214,866 | 231,290 |
RSFE Treated | 261 | 110 | 2049 | 1592 | 1308 | 498 |
RSFE Infections | 43 | 114 | 4439 | 13,950 | 133,162 | 172,417 |
Date | 03–09 | 03–16 | 04–12 | 04–19 | 05–21 | 05–28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infected Patients | 31 | 154 | 16,755 | 32,023 | 168,831 | 209,999 |
Treated Patients | 290 | 1405 | 72,363 | 101,051 | 214,629 | 232,074 |
RSFE Treated | 10 | 53 | 713 | 524 | 237 | 784 |
RSFE Infections | 10 | 69 | 4126 | 1353 | 132,789 | 172,162 |
Empirical results
Trend analysis of international data
Short term dynamics
Date | 03–09 | 03–16 | 04–12 | 04–19 | 05–21 | 05–28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infected Patients | 1187 | 4907 | 54,110 | 70,715 | 167,046 | 183,746 |
Treated Patients | 7985 | 23,073 | 102,253 | 108,257 | 60,960 | 47,986 |
RSFE Treated | 226 | 1156 | 1405 | 224 | 195 | 1958 |
RSFE Confirmed | 292 | 1562 | 2619 | 199 | 18,980 | 25,316 |
Date | 03–09 | 03–16 | 04–12 | 04–19 | 05–21 | 05–28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infected Patients | 31 | 154 | 16,755 | 32,023 | 168,831 | 209,999 |
Treated Patients | 290 | 1405 | 72,363 | 101,051 | 214,629 | 232,074 |
RSFE Treated | 10 | 53 | 713 | 524 | 237 | 784 |
RSFE Confirmed | 10 | 69 | 4126 | 1353 | 132,789 | 172,162 |
Date | 03–09 | 03–16 | 04–12 | 04–19 | 05–21 | 05–28 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infected Patients | 29 | 117 | 59,074 | 111,282 | 393,120 | 501,607 |
Treated Patients | 559 | 4544 | 496,239 | 647,527 | 1,184,027 | 1,220,146 |
RSFE Treated | 32 | 152 | 7806 | 3911 | 13667 | 15347 |
RSFE Confirmed | 31 | 281 | 630,550 | 113,096 | 616,649 | 726,317 |