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11.03.2021 | COVID-19 | Original Paper Zur Zeit gratis

The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying—the head and neck cancer model

verfasst von: Leandro L. Matos, Carlos Henrique Q. Forster, Gustavo N. Marta, Gilberto Castro Junior, John A. Ridge, Daisy Hirata, Adalberto Miranda-Filho, Ali Hosny, Alvaro Sanabria, Vincent Gregoire, Snehal G. Patel, Johannes J. Fagan, Anil K. D’Cruz, Lisa Licitra, Hisham Mehanna, Sheng-Po Hao, Amanda Psyrri, Sandro Porceddu, Thomas J. Galloway, Wojciech Golusinski, Nancy Y. Lee, Elcio H. Shiguemori, José Elias Matieli, Ana Paula A. C. Shiguemori, Letícia R. Diamantino, Luiz Felipe Schiaveto, Lysia Leão, Ana F. Castro, André Lopes Carvalho, Luiz Paulo Kowalski

Erschienen in: Cancer Causes & Control | Ausgabe 5/2021

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Abstract

Purpose

The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model.

Methods

An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data.

Results

The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation.

Conclusions

This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.

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Titel: The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying—the head and neck cancer model
verfasst von: Leandro L. Matos
Carlos Henrique Q. Forster
Gustavo N. Marta
Gilberto Castro Junior
John A. Ridge
Daisy Hirata
Adalberto Miranda-Filho
Ali Hosny
Alvaro Sanabria
Vincent Gregoire
Snehal G. Patel
Johannes J. Fagan
Anil K. D’Cruz
Lisa Licitra
Hisham Mehanna
Sheng-Po Hao
Amanda Psyrri
Sandro Porceddu
Thomas J. Galloway
Wojciech Golusinski
Nancy Y. Lee
Elcio H. Shiguemori
José Elias Matieli
Ana Paula A. C. Shiguemori
Letícia R. Diamantino
Luiz Felipe Schiaveto
Lysia Leão
Ana F. Castro
André Lopes Carvalho
Luiz Paulo Kowalski
Publikationsdatum: 11.03.2021
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Schlagwort: COVID-19
Erschienen in: Cancer Causes & Control / Ausgabe 5/2021
Print ISSN: 0957-5243
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7225
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-021-01411-7

Springer Medizin

The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying—the head and neck cancer model