Key points
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The study contains evidence on unlike drinking behavior over the business cycle.
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The episode analyzed is the 2008 economic collapse in Spain.
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Public policy design would require both prevention and recovery strategies.
Background
Methods
Measuring alcohol consumption and specification
Data
Variables | Definition | 2006 (n = 14,696) | 2011–2012 (n = 14,981) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | S.D. | Mean | S.D. | |||
Drinker | 1 if consumes five or more drinks a week | 0.259 | 0.438 | 0.256 | 0.436 | |
Drinking-frequency | 0 if does not drink alcohol, | |||||
1 drinks only on weekends, | ||||||
2 drinks only on weekdays, and | 2.599 | 0.904 | 0.841 | 1.281 | ||
3 drinks on weekends and weekdays alike | ||||||
Labour status | Unemployed | 1 if unemployed | 0.122 | 0.328 | 0.175 | 0.380 |
Unem_never | 1 if unemployed and has never worked | 0.006 | 0.077 | 0.007 | 0.085 | |
Unem_6 | 1 if unemployed for 6 months or less | 0.052 | 0.222 | 0.051 | 0.220 | |
Unem_6_12 | 1 if unemployed for 6 months to 1 year | 0.017 | 0.129 | 0.028 | 0.165 | |
Unem_12 | 1 if unemployed for 1 year or longer | 0.043 | 0.203 | 0.088 | 0.283 | |
Age | Age | Age (in years) | 40.495 | 10.813 | 43.319 | 12.557 |
Gender | Male | 1 if male | 0.477 | 0.499 | 0.489 | 0.500 |
Education | Educ1 | Primary education or below (reference category) | 0.289 | 0.453 | 0.139 | 0.346 |
Educ2 | Compulsory secondary education | 0.136 | 0.343 | 0.342 | 0.474 | |
Educ3 | Non-compulsory and pre-university secondary education | 0.245 | 0.430 | 0.592 | 0.491 | |
Educ4 | Specific labour training | 0.094 | 0.292 | 0.078 | 0.269 | |
Educ5 | University graduate | 0.231 | 0.422 | 0.190 | 0.393 | |
Marital status | Married | 1 if married | 0.583 | 0.493 | 0.551 | 0.497 |
Nationality | Nationality | 1 if foreigner | 0.096 | 0.294 | 0.102 | 0.303 |
Results
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable/specification | ||||||||||||
Pre-crisis (2006) | ||||||||||||
Unemployed | 0.789 [0.691–0.901] | *** | ||||||||||
Unem_never | 0.709 [0.358–1.404] | |||||||||||
Unem_6 | 0.886 [0.731–1.073] | 0.868 [0.716–1.051] | ||||||||||
Unem_6_12 | 0.529 [0.362–0.774] | *** | 0.519 [0.355–0.760] | *** | ||||||||
Unem_12 | 0.821 [0.666–1.011] | * | 0.806 [0.654–0.993] | ** | ||||||||
Age | 1.037 [1.033–1.041] | *** | 1.037 [1.033–1.041] | *** | 1.037 [1.033–1.041] | *** | 1.037 [1.033–1.041] | *** | 1.037 [1.033–1.042] | *** | 1.037 [1.033–1.041] | *** |
Male | 4.166 [3.834–4.526] | *** | 4.217 [3.833–4.581] | *** | 4.217 [3.883–4.580] | *** | 4.214 [3.880–4.577] | *** | 4.200 [3.887–4.563] | *** | 4.177 [3.845–4.538] | *** |
Educ2 | 0.983 [0.864–1.118] | 0.989 [0.869–1.125] | 0.988 [0.867–1.124] | 0.989 [0.869–1.125] | 0.987 [0.868–1.123] | 0.984 [0.865–1.121] | ||||||
Educ3 | 0.898 [0.804–1.002] | ** | 0.909 [0.815–1.014] | * | 0.908 [0.814–1.013] | * | 0.907 [0.813–1.012] | * | 0.906 [0.812–1.011] | * | 0.900 [0.806–1.004] | * |
Educ4 | 0.978 [0.842–1.136] | 0.992 [0.855–1.151] | 0.991 [0.853–1.150] | 0.992 [0.855–1.151] | 0.989 [0.852–1.147] | 0.982 [0.846–1.140] | ||||||
Educ5 | 0.845 [0.755–0.946] | *** | 0.863 [0.771–0.965] | *** | 0.860 [0.769–0.961] | *** | 0.859 [0.768–0.960] | *** | 0.857 [0.767–0.959] | *** | 0.847 [0.757–0.948] | *** |
Married | 0.958 [0.881–1.042] | 0.971 [0.893–1.055] | 0.969 [0.892–1.053] | 0.965 [0.887–1.049] | 0.967 [0.889–1.052] | 0.957 [0.880–1.041] | ||||||
Nationality | 0.650 [0.559–0.757] | *** | 0.651 [0.559–0.757] | *** | 0.652 [0.560–0.759] | *** | 0.650 [0.558–0.756] | *** | 0.649 [0.558–0.755] | *** | 0.649 [0.557–0.755] | *** |
Pseudo R2 | 0.106 | 0.105 | 0.105 | 0.106 | 0.105 | 0.106 | ||||||
Variable | ||||||||||||
Crisis (2011–2012) | ||||||||||||
Unemployed | 1.014 [0.914–1.126] | |||||||||||
Unem_never | 0.587 [0.316–1.090] | * | ||||||||||
Unem_6 | 1.276 [1.074–1.514] | *** | 1.263 [1.063–1.501] | *** | ||||||||
Unem_6_12 | 1.033 [0.816–1.309] | 1.039 [0.820–1.318] | ||||||||||
Unem_12 | 0.884 [0.768–1.116] | * | 0.899 [0.781–1.035] | |||||||||
Age | 1.027 [1.023–1.030] | *** | 1.026 [1.022–1.030] | *** | 1.027 [1.023–1.030] | *** | 1.026 [1.023–1.030] | *** | 1.026 [1.023–1.030] | *** | 1.027 [1.023–1.030] | *** |
Male | 4.468 [4.112–4.855] | *** | 4.465 [4.109–4.850] | *** | 4.457 [4.102–4.843] | *** | 4.469 [4.114–4.856] | *** | 4.477 [4.121–4.865] | *** | 4.463 [4.108–4.850] | *** |
Educ2 | 0.909 [0.820–1.007] | * | 0.912 [0.823–1.010] | * | 0.903 [0.815–1.000] | ** | 0.909 [0.821–1.007] | * | 0.914 [0.825–1.013] | * | 0.906 [0.818–1.004] | * |
Educ3 | 1.364 [1.191–1.561] | *** | 1.355 [1.184–1.550] | *** | 1.369 [1.197–1.567] | *** | 1.362 [1.190–1.559] | *** | 1.354 [1.183–1.550] | *** | 1.362 [1.190–1.560] | *** |
Educ4 | 1.352 [1.132–1.614] | *** | 1.342 [1.124–1.602] | *** | 1.359 [1.139–1.622] | *** | 1.350 [1.131–1.611] | *** | 1.338 [1.121–1.597] | *** | 1.348 [1.130–1.610] | *** |
Educ5 | 1.379 [1.196–1.590] | *** | 1.371 [1.189–1.580] | *** | 1.386 [1.202–1.597] | *** | 1.377 [1.195–1.587] | *** | 1.362 [1.181–1.570] | *** | 1.373 [1.191–1.584] | *** |
Married | 0.825 [0.759–0.896] | *** | 0.823 [0.757–0.894] | *** | 0.825 [0.759–0.896] | *** | 0.825 [0.759–0.896] | *** | 0.821 [0.755–0.892] | *** | 0.822 [0.756–0.893] | *** |
Nationality | 0.743 [0.645–0.856] | *** | 0.744 [0.647–0.857] | *** | 0.738 [0.641–0.850] | *** | 0.743 [0.646–0.856] | *** | 0.747 [0.649–0.861] | *** | 0.740 [0.643–0.853] | *** |
Pseudo R2 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.096 | 0.096 |
Base outcome = 0 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | ||||
Variable | ||||||
Pre-crisis (2006) | ||||||
Unemployed | −1.302 (− 4.46) | *** | − 0.665 (− 1.78) | * | − 0.596 (− 3.52) | *** |
Age | − 0.056 (− 6.33) | *** | 0.015 (1.31) | 0.026 (4.07) | *** | |
Male | 1.267 (7.09) | *** | 1.527 (6.09) | *** | 1.353 (10.31) | *** |
Educ2 | − 0.075 (− 0.29) | − 0.420 (−1.11) | −0.153 (− 0.81) | |||
Educ3 | 0.377 (1.61) | 0.248 (0.80) | 0.230 (1.30) | |||
Educ4 | 0.708 (2.22) | ** | 0.153 (0.33) | 0.428 (1.67) | * | |
Educ5 | 0.884 (3.43) | *** | 0.973 (3.08) | *** | 0.635 (3.15) | *** |
Married | −0.540 (−2.97) | *** | −0.054 (− 0.22) | − 0.033 (− 0.24) | ||
Nationality | − 0.388 (−1.20) | −0.205 (− 0.44) | −0.053 (− 0.21) | |||
Crisis (2011–2012) | ||||||
Unemployed | −0.079 (− 0.85) | − 0.695 (− 0.63) | −0.015 (− 0.23) | |||
Age | −0.030 (−9.16) | *** | 0.058 (1.72) | * | 0.044 (19.62) | *** |
Male | 1.557 (20.36) | *** | 2.702 (2.46) | *** | 1.821 (35.41) | *** |
Educ2 | −0.418 (−4.57) | *** | −0.303 (− 0.30) | − 0.126 (−1.96) | ** | |
Educ3 | 1.032 (6.92) | ** | 0.405 (0.32) | 0.445 (5.52) | *** | |
Educ4 | 1.023 (5.81) | *** | 1.805 (1.43) | 0.495 (4.47) | *** | |
Educ5 | 1.201 (7.81) | *** | −12.119 (−0.03) | 0.655 (7.52) | *** | |
Married | −0.376 (−4.80) | *** | −1.425 (− 1.66) | * | − 0.069 (− 1.34) | |
Nationality | − 0.501 (− 4.05) | *** | 2.735 (3.37) | *** | − 0.346 (− 3.91) | *** |
Unemployed E(Y1|D = 1) | Counterfactual E(Y0|D = 1) | ATT (Impact) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-crisis (2006) | ||||
Nearest neighbour with replacement | 0.197 | 0.228 | −0.031 (−1.37) | |
Nearest neighbour without replacement | 0.197 | 0.229 | −0.033 (− 3.37) | *** |
Nearest neighbour with more than one neighbour (3) | 0.197 | 0.217 | −0.021 (−1.38) | |
Radius matching (0.02) | 0.197 | 0.227 | −0.030 (− 2.94) | *** |
Kernel | 0.197 | 0.237 | −0.047 (−3.90) | *** |
Crisis (2011–2012) | ||||
Nearest neighbour with replacement | 0.254 | 0.246 | −0.008 (− 0.37) | |
Nearest neighbour without replacement | 0.254 | 0.241 | 0.013 (1.46) | |
Nearest neighbour with more than one neighbour (3) | 0.254 | 0.242 | 0.012 (0.86) | |
Radius matching (0.02) | 0.254 | 0.251 | 0.003 (0.26) | |
Kernel | 0.254 | 0.252 | 0.002 (0.20) |
Effect | Full model with controls | Pseudo R2 |
n
| |
---|---|---|---|---|
Change in drinking behavior (δ) | −0.150 | *** | 0.098 | 29,677 |
(−4.46) | ||||
Effect of unemployment on drinking (γ) | −0.214 | *** | ||
(−3.19) | ||||
Change in the effect of unemployment on drinking behavior during the crisis (θ) | 0.234 | *** | ||
(2.76) |