Early warning system models and components in emergency and disaster: a systematic literature review protocol

Emergency and disaster and their consequences are increasing worldwide [1, 2]. The increasing trend of emergency and disaster has changed the paradigm of response to risk prevention and management [3]. One of the most important components of disaster risk management is the advanced early warning system [4]. Upstream documents such as the Hyogo and the Sendai documents have emphasized the importance of the early warning system as one of the key elements of disaster risk reduction. The Sendai document has set out an early warning system with a multi-hazard approach as a requirement for the countries road map by 2030 [5, 6]. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) defines warning system as a set of capabilities needed for the timely and meaningful generation and dissemination of alert information to individuals, communities and organizations at risk for optimal preparedness and response and at the appropriate time to reduce the likelihood of injury and death [7]. Early warning and timely response play a major role in reducing the vulnerability and mortality caused by disasters and in enhancing the resilience of communities [8]. Deploying appropriate framework and model with the most optimal elements of the warning system can play a significant role in reducing the risk of disasters. In addition, development of warning system modeling will improve system performance [4]. Until now, different models of waning systems with single- or multi-hazard approaches have been developed at various levels [4, 8, 9]. For example, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has proposed a four-element platform including risk knowledge, monitoring, warning dissemination and response [10] or there are a traditional three-phase model proposed by Villagran [11], and an integrated model that has been proposed by Basher [4]. However, each of these models has strengths and weaknesses and there is no consensus on the models and their essential elements [12]. For example, some models focus on risk identification and decision-making, and some focus on warning and response, and there is rarely a model including all the necessary elements [13].

A UN study on the global multi-hazard warning system, as requested by Annan (2005), also showed that the framework and structure of the warning system need further evaluation and evidence [8]. The Global Warning System Review held in 2006 and the Third International Conference on Early Warning also revealed problems and deficiencies of the warning system from various aspects [10, 14]. Therefore, identifying and evaluating existing models and extracting key elements of the warning system are essential for developing an effective and efficient model. These actions play a key role in policymaking in this area and reduce the negative consequences of disasters. In this regard, this study aims to examine the models, patterns and components of the warning system.

There are currently different models of early warning systems with different elements depending on the hazard or context [4, 11]. This systematic review provides the specifics of the warning models and their components used in hazards in the context of different communities. It will also highlight the combination of findings, features and limitations of the models. In the initial search, several studies with relevant keywords are entered and then their quality will be evaluated by two raters.

Recognizing different early warning models, their patterns and constituents and examining their strengths and weaknesses seem essential for developing a comprehensive model that includes critical elements. This study is the first step in the development of a comprehensive model of warning system in emergency and disaster, resulting in the recognition of early warning models, their structures, elements and their interactions that ultimately lead to establishing a new approach of warning system and its structure for executives and policymakers to plan and enhance the risk management process. Due to the comprehensiveness of the methodology, the present study can be used to develop an operational model to optimally manage emergencies and disasters, respond to them in a timely manner and reduce their consequences.