Introduction
Materials and methods
Study design and population
Definition of metabolic score
Follow-up and case identification
Study approval
Statistical analysis
Results
Variables | Men | Women | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non diabetics (n = 12,104) | New cases of type 2 diabetes (n = 294) | Non diabetics (n = 13,497) | New cases of type 2 diabetes (n = 198) | |||
Low metabolic score (n = 157) | High metabolic score (n = 137) | Low metabolic score (n = 76) | High metabolic score (n = 122) | |||
Age (years) | 46.1 ± 0.13 | 58.1 ± 0.85*** | 54.1 ± 0.89***
†
| 46.5 ± 0.13 | 59.1 ± 1.59*** | 57.6 ± 1.02***
†
|
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 137 ± 0.15 | 145 ± 1.55 | 153 ± 1.62***
†
| 131 ± 0.18 | 146 ± 2.67 | 158 ± 2.14***
†
|
Diastolic blood pressure (mmHg) | 79.7 ± 0.11 | 86.1 ± 0.94 | 91 ± 1.11***
†
| 76.1 ± 0.11 | 82.5 ± 1.54 | 87.3 ± 1.69***
†
|
BMI (kg/m2) | 25.5 ± 0.03 | 27.5 ± 0.31*** | 30.8 ± 0.28***
†
| 24.6 ± 0.03 | 27.2 ± 0.57*** | 31.3 ± 0.45***
†
|
Total cholesterol (mmol/l) | 6.03 ± 0.01 | 6.5 ± 0.09 | 6.7 ± 0.09*** | 5.94 ± 0.12 | 6.65 ± 0.14 | 6.86 ± 0.11** |
HDL cholesterol (mmol/l) | 1.35 ± 0.02 | 1.35 ± 0.02 | 1.07 ± 0.21***
†
| 1.64 ± 0.01 | 1.69 ± 0.04 | 1.24 ± 0.03***
†
|
Triglycerides (mmol/l) | 1.75 ± 0.01 | 1.82 ± 0.09* | 3.42 ± 0.18***
†
| 1.31 ± 0.01 | 1.46 ± 0.07* | 2.81 ± 0.11***
†
|
Positive family history of diabetes n (%) | 1,372 (11.3) | 39 (24.8)*** | 32 (23.4)*** | 1,804 (13.4) | 25 (32.9)*** | 39 (31.7)*** |
Anti-hypertensive treatment n (%) | ||||||
Current | 658 (5.4) | 25 (15.9)* | 40 (29.2)***
†
| 743 (5.5) | 11 (14.5)* | 29 (23.7)***
†
|
Previous | 268 (2.3) | 6 (3.8) | 2 (1.5) | 358 (2.7) | 5 (6.6) | 13 (10.7)** |
Never | 11,178 (92.3) | 126 (80.3) | 95 (69.3) | 12,396 (91.8) | 60 (78.9) | 80 (65.6) |
Education n (%) | ||||||
Primary/secondary | 5,961 (49.2) | 94 (59.9)* | 73 (53.3) | 6,546 (48.5) | 48 (63.2)* | 72 (59.0) |
High school | 1,526 (12.7) | 18 (11.5) | 21 (15.3) | 2,301 (17.1) | 10 (13.2) | 15 (12.3) |
College/university < 4 years | 2,256 (18.6) | 21 (13.4) | 20 (14.6) | 2,489 (18.4) | 10 (13.2) | 17 (13.9) |
College/university ≥ 4 years | 2,361 (19.5) | 24 (15.2) | 23 (16.8) | 2,161 (16.0) | 8 (10.4) | 18 (14.8) |
Leisure-time physical activity level n (%) | ||||||
Hard | 1,828 (15.1) | 16 (10.2) | 16 (11.7) | 1,998 (14.8) | 6 (7.9) | 15 (12.3) |
Moderate | 6,781 (56.0) | 53 (33.7) | 70 (51.1) | 6,305 (46.7) | 19 (25.0) | 35 (28.7) |
Inactive | 3,495 (28.9) | 88 (56.1)** | 51 (37.2) | 5,194 (38.5) | 51 (67.1)* | 72 (59.0) |
Daily smoking n (%) | ||||||
Current | 4,593 (37.9) | 92 (58.6)*** | 65 (47.4) | 5,027 (37.2) | 39 (51.3)*** | 45 (36.9) |
Previous | 3,756 (31.1) | 40 (25.5) | 40 (29.2) | 2,944 (21.8) | 13 (17.1) | 19 (15.6) |
Never | 3,755 (31.0) | 25 (15.9) | 32 (23.4) | 5,526 (41.0) | 24 (31.6) | 58 (47.5) |
Variables | Men (294 cases) | Women (198 cases) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low metabolic score | High metabolic score | P value for difference in HR between groups | Low metabolic score | High metabolic score | P value for difference in HR between groups | |
HR (95% CI) n = 10,426 | HR (95% CI) n = 1,972 | HR (95% CI) n = 11,983 | HR (95% CI) n = 1,712 | |||
Cases of type 2 diabetes (n) | 157 | 137 | 76 | 122 | ||
Age (10 years) | 1.76 (1.64, 2.11) | 1.54 (1.36, 1.79) | 0.000 | 1.54 (1.82, 1.8) | 1.29 (1.12, 1.48) | 0.003 |
BMI (1SD) | 2.28 (1.98, 2.75) | 1.59 (1.38, 1.84) | 0.000 | 1.68 (1.40, 2.01) | 1.52 (1.30, 1.78) | 0.007 |
Triglycerides (1SD) | 1.36 (1.14, 1.64) | 1.16 (1.09, 1.23) | 0.000 | 1.34 (1.07, 1.68) | 1.17 (1.04, 1.32) | 0.000 |
HDL cholesterol (1SD) | 1.02 (0.76, 1.12) | 1.01 (0.78, 1.14) | – | 1.06 (0.82, 1.36) | 0.75 (0.58, 0.97) | 0.000 |
Hypertension (yes) | 1.47 (1.01, 2,15) | 0.69 (0.35, 1.41) | 0.001 | 1.86 (1.05,3.30) | 1.53 (0.69, 3.42) | 0.004 |
Family history (yes) | 2.19 (1.51, 3.16) | 2.07 (1.40, 2.98) | – | 2.54 (1.57,4.12) | 2.25 (1.55, 3.26) | – |
Education | ||||||
College/university ≥ 4 years | 1.00 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | 1.00 | – |
College/university < 4 years | 0.95 (0.53, 1.72) | 1.01 (0.61, 2.02) | 1.11 (0.43, 2.83) | 0.84 (0.45, 1.75) | ||
High school | 1.07 (0.59, 2.01) | 1.11 (0.61, 2.01) | 1.22 (0.47, 3.12) | 0.89 (0.49, 1.87) | ||
primary and secondary | 1.81 (1.19, 2.88) | 1.53 (0.77, 1.96) | 1.75 (1.09, 4.57) | 1.04 (0.69, 1.98) | ||
Leisure-time physical activity | ||||||
Hard | 1.00 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | 1.00 | – |
Moderate | 0.81 (0.47, 1.39) | 0.98 (0.57, 1.70) | 0.91 (0.38, 2.10) | 0.43 (0.34, 1.22) | ||
Inactive | 1.94 (1.18, 3.36) | 1.10 (0.57, 1.79) | 1.70 (0.91, 4.33) | 0.48 (0.38, 1.28) | ||
Smoking | ||||||
Never | 1.00 | 1.00 | – | 1.00 | 1.00 | – |
Previous | 0.70 (0.42, 1.17) | 0.61 (0.38, 1.22) | 1.10 (0.56, 2.07) | 0.76 (0.45, 1.28) | ||
Current | 1.68 (1.23, 4.25) | 1.33 (0.91, 2.14) | 1.56 (1.18, 4.18) | 1.41 (0.89, 2.47) |