Risk factors and prediction-score model for distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy

The objective of this study is to identify the risk factors and construct a prediction-score model for distant metastasis (DM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). A total of 520 nonmetastatic NPC patients were analysed retrospectively. The independent risk factors for DM were tested by multivariate Cox regression analysis. The prediction-score model was established according to the regression coefficient. The median follow-up was 88.4 months. The 5-year DM rate was 15.1 %. N2–3, primary tumour volume of nasopharynx (GTVnx) >24.56 cm³, haemoglobin change after treatment (ΔHGB) >25.8 g/L, albumin-globulin ratio (AGR) ≤1.34, pretreatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) >2.81 and pretreatment serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) >245 U/L were significantly adverse independent predictive factors for DM. Three subgroups were defined based on the prediction-score model: low risk (0–2), intermediate risk (3–4) and high risk (5–8). The 5-year DM rates were 4.6, 21.8 and 50.8 %, respectively (P < 0.001). The areas under the curve for DM in the prediction-score model and the UICC/AJCC staging system seventh edition were 0.748 and 0.627, respectively (P < 0.001). The scoring model is useful in evaluating the risk of DM in IMRT-treated NPC patients and guiding future therapeutic trials. Further prospective study is needed.