Background
Methods
Study identification and selection
Populations of interest
Interventions
Outcomes
Study design
Data extraction
Meta-analysis of joint structural deterioration over time
Results
Study selection
Study characteristics
Study [Ref] | Study design | Follow-up period | Reassignment in studies of biologics | Larsen | JSN | ES | TSS | Outcomes of interest |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DMARD-IR population | ||||||||
Breedveld et al. 2004 [20] | RCT | NA | No reassignment; MTX dose increase for non-responders | No | No | No | Yes | Modified TSS |
Hamdy et al. 1987 [21] | Double-blind RCT | 1.5 years | NA | No | No | No | Yes | TSS |
Jeurissen et al. 1991 [22] | Double-blind RCT | 48 weeks | NA | No | No | No | Yes | Modified TSS |
Keystone et al. 2004 [23] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | No reassignment; MTX dose increase for non-responders | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Keystone et al. 2008 [24] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Lipsky et al. 2000 [25] | RCT | 1 year | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Maini et al. 2004 [26] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Sany et al. 1990 [27] | RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Smolen et al. 2009 [28] | RCT | 2 years | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
van der Heijde et al. 2006 [29] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
van Holten et al. 2005 [30] | Double-blind RCT | 24 weeks | NA | No | No | No | Yes | Modified TSS |
Wick et al. 2005 [31] | Retrospective cohort | NA | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Non-DMARD-IR population | ||||||||
Bathon et al. 2000 [32] | RCT | 1 year | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Boiardi et al. 1999 [33] | Prospective cohort | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Breedveld et al. 2006 [34] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | No reassignment; MTX dose increase for non-responders | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Choy et al. 2008 [35] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Cohen et al. 2001 [36] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Cohen et al. 2008 [37] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | NA | No | Yes | Yes | No | Modified TSS |
Emery et al. 2000 [38] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Emery et al. 2008 [39] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | No reassignment | No | No | No | Yes | Modified TSS |
Emery et al. 2009 [40] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Ferraccioli et al. 1996 [41] | Open-label RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Ferraccioli et al. 1997 [42] | Open-label RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Goldbach-Mansky et al. 2009 [43] | RCT | 24 weeks | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Hannonen et al. 1993 [44] | Double-blind RCT | 48 weeks | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Hetland et al. 2006 [45] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Hetland et al. 2008 [46] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Landewé et al. 2002 [47] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | NA | No | No | No | Yes | Modified TSS |
Larsen et al. 2001 [48] | Double-blind RCT | 24 weeks | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Maravic et al. 1999 [49] | Open-label RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | Yes | Larsen scores and TSS |
Marchesoni et al. 2002 [50] | First phase was open and uncontrolled; second phase was single-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Larsen scores and TSS |
Peltomaa et al. 1995 [51] | RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Sanmarti et al. 2003 [52] | Prospective cohort | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Sarzi-Puttini et al. 2005 [53] | RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Scott et al. 1985 [54] | RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Scott et al. 1989 [55] | RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Scott et al. 1990 [56] | RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Smith et al. 1982 [57] | Open-label RCT | 2 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
St Clair et al. 2004 [58] | RCT | 2 years | No reassignment | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS, |
Strand et al. 1999 [59] | Double-blind RCT | 1 year | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Svensson et al. 2003 [60] | Double-blind RCT | 1.5 years | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Larsen scores |
Svensson et al. 2005 [61] | Open-label RCT | 2 years | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
van Riel et al. 1986 [62] | Single-blind RCT | 1 year | NA | Yes | No | No | No | Modified Larsen scores |
Wassenberg et al. 2005 [63] | Double-blind RCT | 2 years | NA | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Modified TSS |
Study [Ref] Patient type | Treatment (No. patients, ITT) | Female, % | Mean age (SD), years | RF+, % | Mean disease duration (SD), months | Mean CRP (SD), mg/dL | Mean ESR (SD), mm/h | Mean score (SD) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HAQ (0–3) | DAS-28 | SJC | TJC | TSS | JSN | ES | Larsen | ||||||||
DMARD-IR population | |||||||||||||||
Breedveld et al. 2004 [20] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 88) | 78 | 54a | NA | 100.8 | 2.6a | 42a | 1.8a | NA | 20a | 31a | 52a | 28a | 24a | NA |
Hamdy et al. 1987 [21] DMARD-experienced | AZA (n = 21) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 44.8 | NA | NA | 21.6 | NA | 53.1 | NA | NA | NA |
MTX (n = 21) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 41.5 | NA | NA | 22.2 | NA | 44.5 | NA | NA | NA | |
Jeurissen et al. 1991 [22] DMARD-experienced | AZA (n = 33) | 52 | 56 (9) | NA | 112.8 (67.2) | NA | 60.2 (27.9) | NA | NA | 18.7 (7.0) | 23.0 (10.7) | 60.5 | NA | NA | NA |
MTX (n = 31) | 84 | 57 (10) | NA | 153.6 (120.0) | NA | 57.5 (27.9) | NA | NA | 18.8 (7.2) | 22.5 (10.1) | 62.7 | NA | NA | NA | |
Keystone et al. 2004 [23] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 200) | 73 | 56 (12) | 89.5 | 130.8 (105.6) | 1.8 (2.1) | NA | 1.5 (0.6) | NA | 19 (9.5) | 28.1 (13.8) | 66.4 (47.4) | 29.2 (24.5) | 37.2 (25.8) | NA |
Keystone et al. 2008 [24] MTX-experienced | MTX (n = 199) | 84 | 52 (11) | 82.8 | 74.4 (52.8) | 1.6a | NA | 1.7 (0.6) | 7.0a | 21.2 (9.7) | 29.8 (13.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Lipsky et al. 2000 [25] DMARD-IR | MTX (n = 88) | 80 | 51 (12) | 77.0 | 132.0 (96.0) | 4.0 (4.2) | 49.0 (25.0) | 1.7 (0.6) | NA | 21 (12.0) | 31.0 (18.0) | 82.0 (77.0) | NA | NA | NA |
Maini et al. 2004 [26] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 88) | 78 | 54 | NA | NA | 2.6 | NA | 1.8 | NA | 20.0 | 31.0 | NA | 28.3 | 23.5 | NA |
Sany et al. 1990 [27] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 41) | 88 | 54 (27–78)b | 82.9 | 154.8 | NA | 62.8 (34.3) | NA | NA | 9.1 (2.8) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 83.8 (24.4) |
Smolen et al. 2009 [28] MTX-experienced | MTX (n = 127) | 84 | 52 (12) | 78.2 | 67.2 (46.8) | 1.4 | 40.8 | 1.6 (0.6) | 6.8 (0.9) | 21.9 (9.7) | 30.4 (13.4) | 46.5 (58.6) | 23.4 (27.7) | 23.1 (32.1) | NA |
van der Heijde et al. 2006 [29] MTX-experienced | MTX (n = 228) | 76 | 52 | NA | NA | 2.6 | NA | 1.7 | NA | 22.7 | 33.2 | 35.5 | NA | NA | NA |
van Holten et al. 2005 [30] MTX-experienced | MTX (n = 73) | 66 | 54 (12) | 71.2 | 49.2 (28.8) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Wick et al. 2005 [31] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 56) | 71 | NA | NA | 6.8 (3.9) | 3.2 (4.0) | 29.5 (20.3) | 1.1 (0.6) | 5.4 (1.1) | 11 (5.6) | 9.8 (6.2) | NA | NA | NA | 15.6 (9.6) |
SSZ (n = 55) | 56 | NA | NA | 6.5 (3.6) | 1.9 (18.0) | 28.2 (23.1) | 0.8 (0.5) | 4.8 (1.1) | 10.3 (5.8) | 7.5 (6.0) | NA | NA | NA | 12.9 (9.4) | |
Gold (n = 19) | 63 | NA | NA | 7.0 (4.4) | 1.1 (9.0) | 16.3 (9.6) | 0.8 (0.5) | 4.1 (0.9) | 4.5 (3.5) | 4.6 (3.7) | NA | NA | NA | 9.6 (7.0) | |
Non-DMARD-IR population | |||||||||||||||
Bathon et al. 2000 [32] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 217) | 75 | 49 (13) | 89.0 | 12.0 (11.0) | 3.7 (4.4) | NA | NA | NA | 24 (11.9) | 30.0 (16.1) | 12.9 (13.8) | 5.4 (6.1) | 7.5 (9.2) | NA |
Boiardi et al. 1999 [33] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 20) | 90 | 64 (13) | 50.0 | 69.0 (90.0) | 2.5 (2.1) | 39.0 (22.0) | NA | NA | 8.9 (3.8) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 39.4 (34.6) |
Breedveld et al. 2006 [34] DMARD-naïve | MTX (n = 257) | 74 | 52 (13) | NA | 9.6 (10.8) | 4.0 (4.0) | NA | 1.5 (0.6) | 6.3 (0.9) | 22.1 (11.7) | 32.3 (14.3) | 21.9 (22.2) | 8.2 (10.7) | 13.6 (13.6) | NA |
Choy et al. 2008 [35] Early RA; DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 117) | 67 | 54 (21–89)b | 66.0 | 2.7 (3.8) | NA | NA | 1.5 (0.7) | 5.8 (1.2) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 7a (3–15)b |
MTX (n = 115) | 78 | 54 (27–84)b | 66.0 | 5.1 (5.8) | NA | NA | 1.6 (0.7) | 5.8 (1.4) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 6a (2–20)b | |
Cohen et al. 2001 [36] MTX-naïve | LEF (n = 190) | 73 | 54 | NA | 82.8 | 2.2 (2.8) | 38.3 (26.0) | 0.7 (0.5) | NA | 13.3 (6.3) | 13.4 (5.6) | 23.8 (38.5) | 13.5 (17.2) | 10.3 (25.6) | NA |
MTX (n = 190) | 74 | 53 | NA | 78.0 | 2.0 (1.9) | 35.9 (25.7) | 0.7 (0.5) | NA | 13 (5.4) | 14.3 (6.5) | 25.1 (42.3) | 14.5 (21.7) | 10.6 (22.9) | NA | |
Cohen et al. 2008 [37] MTX-experienced | DMARD (n = 75) | 83 | 57 (11) | 78.0 | 116.4 (97.2) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 29.9 (34.7) | 13.3 (18.9) | 16.6 (17.2) | NA |
Emery et al. 2000 [38] DMARD-experienced | LEF (n = 501) | 71 | 58 (10) | NA | 44.4 (38.4) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 15.8 (6.0) | 17.2 (6.8) | NA | NA | NA | 1.3 (0.5) |
MTX (n = 498) | 71 | 58 (11) | NA | 45.6 (42.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 16.5 (5.9) | 17.7 (6.7) | NA | NA | NA | 1.3 (0.5) | |
Emery et al. 2008 [39] MTX-naïve | MTX (n = 263) | 73 | 52 (1) | NA | 9.3 (0.4) | 3.7 (3.4) | 49.3 (24.1) | 1.6 (0.7) | 6.5 (1.0) | 17.6 (10.0) | 24.8 (14.5) | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Emery et al. 2009 [40] MTX-naïve | MTX (n = 257) | 74 | 52 (13) | 84.0 | 10.1 (10.7) | 4.0 (4.0) | NA | 1.5 (0.7) | 6.3 (0.9) | 22.1 (11.7) | 32.3 (14.3) | 21.9 (22.2) | 8.2 (10.7) | 13.6 (13.5) | NA |
Ferraccioli et al. 1996 [41] DMARD-naïve | CSA (n = 141) | 77 | 48 (12) | NA | 16.8 (14.4) | 8.3 (16.7) | 46.9 (25.2) | NA | NA | 14.9 (7.5) | 23.8 (9.6) | NA | NA | NA | 25.0 (23.0) |
Anti-malarial/Gold/D-penicill-amine/SSZ (n = 143) | 78 | 51 (12) | NA | 15.6 (13.2) | 8.5 (17.5) | 47.5 (30.8) | NA | NA | 14.7 (7.8) | 23.2 (9.8) | NA | NA | NA | 23.8 (24.1) | |
Ferraccioli et al. 1997 [42] DMARD-naïve | CSA (n = 167) | 78 | 48 (12) | NA | 16.8 (14.4) | 7.7 (15.5) | 48.5 (26.2) | NA | NA | 15.2 (7.7) | 23.8 (9.4) | NA | NA | NA | 26.0 (21.8) |
Anti-malarial/Gold/D-penicill-amine/SSZ (n = 173) | 79 | 50 (12) | NA | 15.6 (14.4) | 8.7 (18.0) | 47.6 (30.7) | NA | NA | 15.1 (7.7) | 23.9 (9.7) | NA | NA | NA | 25.0 (22.2) | |
Goldbach-Mansky et al. 2009 [43] MTX-experienced | SSZ (n = 61) | 87 | 52 (12) | NA | NA | 2.5 (2.9) | 51.0 (23.0) | NA | 7.0 (1.0) | 22 (13.0) | 33.0 (17.0) | 21.4 (31.2) | 13.3 | 8.1 (0.4) | NA |
Hannonen et al. 1993 [44] DMARD-naïve | SSZ (n = 38) | 61 | 52 (22–78)b | 65.8 | 4.7 | 2.7 (3.0) | 37.7 (21.3) | NA | NA | 6.8 (3.3) | NA | 1.9 (0–14.0)b | 1.1 (0–8.0)b | 0.8 (0–6.0)b | NA |
Hetland et al. 2006 [45] Early RA; DMARD-naïve | MTX (n = 80) | 70 | 51a (39.5-62.5)c | 59.0 | 46.8 | 1.9a | 27a | 0.9a | 5.5 (1.3) | 11a (6–15)c | 14a (8–20)c | NA | NA | NA | 4.6 (7.4) |
Hetland et al. 2008 [46] Early RA; MTX-experienced | MTX (n = 80) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.9a | 27a | 0.9a | 5.7a | 11a (6–15)c | 14a (8–20)c | 4.8 (5.9) | 1.7 (3.8) | 3.1 (4.1) | NA |
Landewé et al. 2002 [47] DMARD-naïve | SSZ (n = 74) | 53 | NA | 71.0 | 3.6 | NA | NA | 1.4 (0.7) | 6.1 (1.1) | NA | NA | 5a (1–10)c | NA | NA | NA |
Larsen et al. 2001 [48] DMARD-experienced | LEF (n = 133) | 76 | 58 (11) | NA | 96.0 (108.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.5 (0.7) |
SSZ (n = 133) | 69 | 59 (11) | NA | 84.0 (120.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 1.4 (0.7) | |
Maravic et al. 1999 [49] MTX-naïve | MTX (n = 29) | 72 | 49 (15) | 37.9 | 6.6 | 1.9a | 36a | NA | NA | 12a (3–27)b | NA | 4.4 | NA | NA | 15.8 (15.9) |
Marchesoni et al. 2002 [50] DMARD-naïve | CSA (n = 22) | NA | 50 (12) | NA | 9.6 (6.0) | 0.8 (1.1) | 29.2 (17.4) | 0.5 (0.5) | 3.2 (1.2) | 3.2 (4.0) | 4.3 (5.2) | NA | NA | NA | 5.1 (7.0) |
MTX (n = 27) | NA | 50 (12) | NA | 9.6 (6.0) | 0.6 (1.3) | 29.4 (13.2) | 0.4 (0.5) | 3.5 (1.0) | 3.1 (4.6) | 4.8 (5.7) | NA | NA | NA | 5.0 (8.8) | |
Peltomaa et al. 1995 [51] DMARD-naïve | Gold (n = 70) | 77 | 45 | NA | 7.7 | 2.7 | 35.0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5.5 (0–22)b |
SSZ (n = 58) | 71 | 49 | NA | 5.8 | 2.8 | 41.0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 8.9 (0–34)b | |
Sanmarti et al. 2003 [52] DMARD-naïve | Gold/MTX (n = 60) | 78 | 52 (16) | 78.3 | 9.5 (6.5) | 2.9 (3.1) | 45.3 (27.7) | 1.0 (0.5) | 5.8 (0.8) | 8.0 (4.1) | 10.2 (5.5) | NA | NA | NA | 1.9 (3.3) |
Sarzi-Puttini et al. 2005 [53] DMARD-naïve | CSA (n = 36) | 78 | 51 (10) | 66.7 | 14.8 (8.4) | 3.0 (1.8) | 45.0 (20.0) | 1.3 (0.6) | NA | 12.2 (5.6) | 15.31 (6.41) | NA | NA | NA | 14.5 (10.0) |
Scott et al. 1985 [54] DMARD-naïve | DMARD (n = 56) | 55 | 56 | NA | NA | 4.9 | 56.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 52.0 (27.7) |
NSAID (n = 15) | 60 | 52 | NA | NA | 1.9 | 22.6 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 41.3 (34.5) | |
Scott et al. 1989 [55] DMARD-naïve | Gold (n = 49) | 61 | 55 (3) | NA | 24.0 | 0.5 (1.1) | 57.0 (7.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 33.9 (9.8) |
Scott et al. 1990 [56] DMARD-naïve | D-penicill-amine (n = 20) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 6.0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 25.6 |
HCQ (n = 23) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 6.2 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 25.5 | |
Smith et al. 1982 [57] DMARD-naïve | Gold (n = 26) | 69 | 45 | 80.8 | 90.0 | NA | 89.8 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 54.2 (6.0) |
Gold (n = 26) | 62 | 46 | 65.4 | 76.8 | NA | 83.4 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 47.4 (5.0) | |
St Clair et al. 2004 [58] DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 282) | 75 | 50 (13) | 71.0 | 10.8 (8.4) | 2.6 (2.9) | 43.0 (28.0) | 1.5 (0.6) | 6.7 (1.0) | 22.0 (11.0) | 34 (15.0) | 11.3 (15.9) | 3.0 (4.8) | 8.3 (12.3) | NA |
Strand et al. 1999 [59] MTX-naïve | LEF (n = 182) | 73 | 54 (12) | 64.8 | 84.0 (103.2) | 2.1 (2.5) | 38.4 (26.8) | 0.8 (0.6) | NA | 13.7 (6.0) | 15.5 (6.4) | 23.1 (34.0) | 14.2 (18.9) | 9.0 (19.6) | NA |
MTX (n = 182) | 75 | 53 (12) | 59.4 | 78.0 | 1.9 (1.9) | 33.8 (25.4) | 0.8 (0.5) | NA | 13.0 (5.7) | 15.8 (6.9) | 22.8 (39.0) | 14.7 (23.3) | 8.1 (18.4) | NA | |
Svensson et al. 2003 [60] Early RA; DMARD-experienced | MTX (n = 50) | 58 | 52 | 62.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 49.9 | 1.2 | NA | 19.8 | NA | NA | NA | NA | 7.5 (10.8) |
Svensson et al. 2005 [61] DMARD-naïve | DMARD (n = 119) | 65 | 51 (14) | 66.0 | 6.5 (3.5) | 2.2 | NA | 1.0 (0.6) | 5.3 (1.1) | NA | NA | 4.1 (9.2) | 2.2 (4.6) | 1.9 (5) | NA |
DMARD (n = 131) | 63 | 59 (13) | 66.0 | 5.8 (2.9) | 2.2 | NA | 1.0 (0.7) | 5.4 (1.0) | NA | NA | 4.8 (9.6) | 2.9 (6.4) | 1.9 (4) | NA | |
Van Riel et al. 1986 [62] DMARD-naïve | Gold (n = 22) | 77 | 50 (12) | NA | 37.2 (38.4) | NA | 56.0 (36.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 30.9 (12.5) |
Gold (n = 18) | 72 | 55 (8) | NA | 51.6 (52.8) | NA | 53.0 (37.0) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | 27.6 (12.5) | |
Wassenberg et al. 2005 [63] MTX-naïve | Gold (66 %)/MTX (34 %) (n = 80) | 25 | 53 (13) | 43.0 | 8.6 (6.7) | NA | 44.5 (24.9) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 11.9 (2.1) | 6.0 (1.3) | 6.0 (1.08) | NA |
Gold (59 %)/MTX (41 %) (n = 86) | 35 | 50 (13) | 47.0 | 9.3 (6.6) | NA | 40.1 (24.6) | NA | NA | NA | NA | 9.4 (1.9) | 4.5 (1.2) | 4.7 (0.87) | NA |
Patient characteristics
Joint structural deterioration over time in the DMARD-IR population
Week 12 | Week 24 | Week 52 | Week 104 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | CFB | 95 % CrI | p-value | CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | |
TSS | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 1.14 | (0.66, 1.67) | >0.99 | 2.27 | (1.31, 3.34) | >0.99 | 4.92 | (2.84, 7.23) | >0.99 | 9.84 | (5.68, 14.46) | >0.99 |
MTXa | 0.97 | (0.49, 1.52) | 0.99 | 1.95 | (0.98, 3.05) | 0.99 | 4.22 | (2.13, 6.6) | 0.99 | 8.44 | (4.26, 13.21) | 0.99 |
AZAa | 2.16 | (2.16, 3.04) | >0.99 | 4.32 | (2.59, 6.07) | >0.99 | 9.35 | (5.62, 13.15) | >0.99 | 18.70 | (11.24, 26.31) | >0.99 |
Erosion Subscore | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 0.51 | (0.27, 0.83) | 0.99 | 1.02 | (0.55, 1.66) | 0.99 | 2.22 | (1.19, 3.6) | 0.99 | 4.43 | (2.38, 7.21) | 0.99 |
MTXa | 0.43 | (0.25, 0.69) | 0.98 | 0.87 | (0.49, 1.39) | 0.98 | 1.88 | (1.07, 3.01) | 0.98 | 3.76 | (2.14, 6.01) | 0.98 |
AZAa | 1.31 | (1.31, 1.98) | >0.99 | 2.62 | (1.3, 3.96) | >0.99 | 5.67 | (2.81, 8.57) | >0.99 | 11.35 | (5.61, 17.14) | >0.99 |
Joint Space Narrowing Subscore | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 0.36 | (0.09, 0.67) | 0.99 | 0.72 | (0.18, 1.33) | 0.99 | 1.57 | (0.4, 2.89) | 0.99 | 3.14 | (0.80, 5.78) | 0.90 |
Joint structural deterioration over time in the non-DMARD-IR population
Week 12 | Week 24 | Week 52 | Week 104 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | CFB | 95 % CrI | Probability of deterioration relative to baseline | |
TSS | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 1.56 | (0.79, 2.34) | >0.99 | 2.49 | (1.2, 3.79) | >0.99 | 3.91 | (1.16, 6.7) | >0.99 | 5.13 | (−1.35, 11.67) | 0.94 |
MTXa | 1.07 | (0.62, 1.53) | >0.99 | 1.76 | (1, 2.57) | >0.99 | 2.89 | (1.41, 4.56) | >0.99 | 4.15 | (1.08, 7.63) | >0.99 |
AZAa | 0.73 | (−0.08, 1.54) | 0.96 | 1.34 | (0.17, 2.52) | 0.99 | 2.57 | (0.86–4.41) | >0.99 | 4.55 | (1.19, 8.26) | >0.99 |
Erosion Subscore | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 0.69 | (0.31, 1.12) | >0.99 | 1.07 | (0.5, 1.67) | >0.99 | 1.80 | (0.76, 2.85) | >0.99 | 2.93 | (0.92, 5.02) | >0.99 |
MTXa | 0.64 | (0.2, 1.07) | >0.99 | 0.99 | (0.32, 1.68) | >0.99 | 1.65 | (0.35, 3.05) | 0.99 | 2.70 | (0.08, 5.53) | 0.98 |
AZAa | 0.59 | (0.13, 1.03) | 0.99 | 0.88 | (0.17, 1.59) | 0.99 | 1.41 | (0.05, 2.86) | 0.98 | 2.21 | (−0.53, 5.14) | 0.95 |
Joint Space Narrowing Subscore | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 0.29 | (0.17, 0.44) | >0.99 | 0.59 | (0.34, 0.88) | >0.99 | 1.28 | (0.73, 1.9) | >0.99 | 2.55 | (1.45, 3.8) | >0.99 |
MTXa | 0.26 | (0.05, 0.51) | 0.99 | 0.51 | (0.1, 1.02) | 0.99 | 1.11 | (0.22, 2.2) | 0.99 | 2.21 | (0.45, 4.41) | 0.99 |
AZAa | 0.24 | (0.02, 0.5) | 0.98 | 0.48 | (0.05, 1) | 0.98 | 1.04 | (0.1, 2.17) | 0.98 | 2.08 | (0.21, 4.34) | 0.98 |
(Standardized) Larsen score | ||||||||||||
DMARDs | 0.08 | (0.04–0.11) | >0.99 | 0.15 | (0.08–0.22) | >0.99 | 0.33 | (0.18–0.48) | >0.99 | 0.65 | (0.36–0.96) | >0.99 |