Graphical analysis
To illustrate the pre- and post-school closure search patterns, figures
S1-S4 (see supplementary material) show the raw daily searches for the topics 56 days before and 28 days after schools closed due to the pandemic. The red and black lines represent the average searches for 2020 and 2019, respectively. Overall, we observed considerable variation in daily searches over time. The RSVs for anger, boredom and prayer increased sharply around the time of school closures in 2020. The figures also display noticeable increases in anxiety-related topics, and fear peaked in the second week of school closures. However, the uptick in panic began two weeks before the school closures. Regarding sleep and worry, the results suggest that the RSV began to rise around the school closure dates but peaked at different times. Specifically, the RSV for sleep peaked in the second week after school closures, whereas searches for worry reached their highest point at the end of the first week.
The search for sadness peaked in the second week of school closures, while no clear patterns were observed for the raw searches related to suicide. Finally, searches for exercise saw an uptick in the second week of school closures and peaked at the end of the third week following the school closures.
Difference-in-differences estimation results
Figure S
5 (See supplementary material) depicts the estimated effects, while Table
3 presents coefficients. The findings indicate a significant increase in the RSV of anger and boredom at the 1% level. The model coefficients in Table
3 suggest that the RSV for ‘Boredom’ was approximately 10 times higher (
α = 9.64, p < 0.001) post-school closure, compared to the pre-school closure period. School closures were also significantly and positively associated with the relative search volume for ‘Anger’. The RSV for anger was, on average, 6.7 times higher (
α = 6.65, p < 0.001) post-school closure, relative to the pre-school closure period. There was no evidence of an association between school closures and the relative search volume of loneliness.
The results for anxiety-related topics (fear, panic, sleep and worry)are mixed. The coefficients for fear (α = 5.18, p < 0.001) and sleep (α = 1.93, p < 0.001) are positive and statistically different from zero, while the coefficient for panic (α = -2.87, p < 0.001) is negative and statistically significant. There was no evidence of an association between school closures and the relative search volume for ‘Worry’. Additionally, the coefficients for sadness and suicide are positive but statistically insignificant. Finally, the results show a positive and significant association between school closures and the search intensity for the coping-related topics: prayer and exercise. The RSV for prayer was approximately 4 times higher (p < 0.001) post-school closure, relative to the pre-school closure period. For exercise, the RSV was on average 2.2 times higher (p < 0.001) post-school closure, relative to the pre-school closure period.
Table 3
The Effects of School Closures - DiD Estimates (Figs. S1-S4).
| Anger | Boredom | Loneliness | |
Tic*Yeari | 6.65*** | 9.64*** | 0.90 | |
| (1.28) | (1.43) | (1.51) | |
Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Year, Week and Day FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Observations | 2230 | 756 | 583 | |
Panel B: Anxiety |
| Fear | Panic | Sleep | Worry |
Tic*Yeari | 5.18*** | -2.87*** | 1.93*** | -1.10 |
| (1.18) | (0.87) | (0.35) | (0.73) |
Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Year, Week and Day FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 3183 | 465 | 7897 | 1099 |
Panel C: Sadness and Coping |
| Sadness | Suicide | Exercise | Prayer |
Tic*Yeari | 0.24 | 0.05 | 2.22*** | 4.32*** |
| (0.60) | (0.22) | (0.27) | (0.53) |
Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Year, Week and Day FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 3019 | 1519 | 6088 | 9213 |
As previously stated, to test the sensitivity of the estimates, we restrict the sample to 13 countries (Angola, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Sudan, The Gambia, Uganda, Zimbabwe) with high death rates per million population and high average stringency index. We find that the results are quantitatively similar (Fig.S4 and Table
4 below). It is not surprising that the the estimates for anger, boredom, fear, panic, exercise, and prayer are larger, and similar conclusions can be drawn regarding the effects of school closures on well-being-related Google searches.
Table 4
The Effects of School Closure Order - DiD Estimates (Robustness Checks)
Variable | Anger | Boredom | Loneliness | |
Tic*Yeari | 8.22*** | 10.09*** | 1.12 | |
| (1.52) | (1.66) | (1.63) | |
Country FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Year, Week and Day FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | |
Observations | 1310 | 510 | 427 | |
Panel B: Anxiety | | | | |
Variable | Fear | Panic | Sleep | Worry |
Tic*Yeari | 6.51*** | -2.54*** | 1.77*** | -1.09 |
| (1.47) | (0.93) | (0.40) | (0.78) |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 1667 | 337 | 3567 | 789 |
Panel C: Sadness and Coping |
Variable | Sadness | Suicide | Exercise | Prayer |
Tic*Yeari | -0.49 | 0.00 | 2.58*** | 5.02*** |
| (0.67) | (0.27) | (0.36) | (0.72) |
Time FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Deaths | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 1585 | 1005 | 3091 | 3785 |
Discussion of findings
In response to the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide implemented school closures as part of mobility restrictions. This study utilised multiple approaches to estimate the impact of the pandemic-induced school closures on mental health and well-beings, as well as coping strategies in selected Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. We quantified this impact by examining changes in the search volume for topics related to three themes on Google Trends (GT): Social dysfunction (Anger, Boredom and Loneliness), Anxiety (Fear, Panic, Sleep and Worry), and Sadness (Sadness and Suicide). Searches for two coping mechanisms, namely exercise and prayer, were also included in the analysis. We leveraged the availability of GT data, and the temporal and cross-sectional variation in school closures to provide a unique opportunity to estimate the population’s responses to school closures.
The study findings produced mixed results. On one hand, pandemic-induced school closures had a positive and statistically significant effect on the search volume for anger, boredom, fear, sleep, prayer and exercise. The event-study results indicated that the higher search volume lasted for several weeks following the school closures. For example, increased searches for boredom and fear persisted for approximately five weeks, while those for prayer lasted for seven weeks, and exercise lasted for about 10 weeks. On the other hand, we observed significantly lower searches for panic. Finally, we find no discernible evidence of an effect of school closures on topics related to loneliness, sadness, suicide, worry.
Previous studies that tracked temporal changes in health and well-being-related topics before and during the pandemic’s mobility restrictions [
6‐
8,
42,
45] also noted higher search volumes for topics related to boredom and anger. If we assume that Google users search topics based on their mood, the findings suggest that the population was more bored during the school closures. However, over time, these searches decreased which could be due to adaptation to the “new normal” and the introduction of online learning and working strategies adopted in different countries [
7,
20]. Anger is also a basic emotion experienced during the pandemic. It has been noted in the literature that the fear state (fear of the disease and fear of change due to the disease) which was evident during the pandemic, can trigger anger [
46]. For instance, the lack of proper communication and education about NPIs (e.g., wearing of face masks while outdoors) may have caused arguments and confrontation regarding political control of people’s liberties [
47].
The lack of discernible effects of school closures on loneliness could be attributed to the availability of social media platforms (such as Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube) and online messaging platforms (such as WhatsApp), which may have allowed for frequent virtual contact with family and friends, as well as entertainment. These virtual means of staying connected and receiving emotional support may have mitigated the negative effects of the pandemic, reducing the impact on loneliness [
48]. The presence of social media may have presented the opportunity for individuals to find creative ways to fulfil their need for social connection.
It is not surprising that school closures had no significant impact on the relative search volume for sadness and suicide. Like loneliness, the presence of social media and online messaging platforms may have reduced the impact of the physical restrictions on sadness, thus decreasing the likelihood of suicidal ideation or thoughts. In addition to virtual social contact, the sense of a “coming together” phenomenon during the crisis, the availability of financial safety nets, and the decline in the monetary and psychosocial costs of commuting, especially for poorer individuals who travel long distances to school and work, may have moderated the negative effects of COVID-19 [
49,
50].
The finding of a positive effect on prayer is consistent with other studies conducted in countries with a higher prevalence of religious populations, including those with large populations of Christians and Muslims, as well as countries where religion is practised sporadically or not at all [
51,
52]. Prayer can have a positive effect on mental health and improve well-being by helping people cope with stressful situations, thereby reducing anxiety and tension [
53]. This effect is particularly pronounced for individuals who regularly confront adversity [
51]. Bentzen [
51] noted that during times of adversity or uncertainty, when people need to cope, their use of religion is mainly intrinsic (such as private prayers for relief, understanding, and comfort) rather than extrinsic, such as attendance at religious institutions like churches. However, comparing these motivations and determining whether the rise in searches for prayer is permanent is beyond the scope of this study.
The results for the higher search volume for fear confirm the finding of other studies that the pandemic and the NPIs introduced to curb the transmission of the coronavirus introduced anxiety, especially at the early stages of the pandemic [
7,
11]. The increased searches for fear could be attributed to several factors including the fear of contracting or having a loved one infected with COVID-19, as well as concerns about economic insecurity and future prospects [
6,
54]. Fear-related searches by the population began before the school closures were implemented, which is consistent with the findings of other studies [
45,
55]. The literature suggests that fear surrounding infection began to increase shortly after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in the absence of an effective treatment, and began to decrease as mobility restrictions were imposed and people adapted psychologically to the presence of COViD-19 [
45,
55].
Similarly, the increase in panic-related searches began before the implementation of school closures, which can be attributed to the observation of the pandemic’s development in other countries and the panic-buying that arose as people planned for possible mobility restrictions [
56]. The heightened searches for sleep and exercise may be linked to the increased boredom and fear among the population. Given the sudden changes in daily life and more time on their hands, individuals may increase their online searches, looking for guidance on improving sleep quality or including forms of exercise to include into their daily routine [
57], or have become more aware of the benefits of sleep and exercise for physical and mental health [
58].
Strengths and limitations
This study utilised data from GT® to investigate the association between COVID-19 pandemic-induced school closures in SSA countries and searches for key mental health and subjective well-being topics. GT® provides an alternative to traditional data sources as it provides another source of data. The data can be seamlessly exported into a comma separated value (.csv) file and imported into analytical software such as Stata for analysis. Although imperfect, the GT® data allows researchers to use big data and circumvent some of the biases that are common in survey data, such as self-reporting bias (where survey respondents may not disclose the truth), recall bias (due to the time lag between the event and the survey), and social desirability bias (due to perceived interviewer-expectations). Another key advantage of the GT® data is that it allows researchers to document public responses and examine the effects of the COVID-19 measures on well-being at a time when data collection was expensive, and participants were harder to reach. Moreover, it allows for the exploration of associations between mobility restrictions and mental health and well-being for a large group of countries.
Despite the benefits, there are limitations that warrant discussion. First, the nature of the data does not allow heterogeneity based on the searchers’ sociodemographic characteristics, such as age, sex, housing conditions, educational level, occupation, perceived risk of infection, and access to mental healthcare services. Second, the sample is not representative of the population, as most of the internet users in the region are young and relatively well-off, those who can afford smart devices and internet data costs. Thus, the results may be skewed towards predicting the searches of this group and ignore vulnerable groups, such as the poor, elderly, and those living with pre-existing mental health issues or disabilities who may not be active searchers. Third, the data does not efficiently account for unique social, political, and economic realities that present diverse experiences within and across the countries under investigation.