Background
Methods
Surveillance for enteroviruses
Statistical analysis
Results
Age distribution of mild and severe EV cases
Temporal relationship between mild and severe EV cases
July 1 ~ Dec. 31, 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Overall | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S-1week | -0.174 | .584**
| .747**
| .429**
| .488**
| .544**
| .783**
| .596**
| 0.194 | .975** | .554**
|
S-2week | -0.093 | .510**
| .664**
| .331*
| .418**
| .505**
| .753**
| .565**
| 0.147 | .919**
| .512**
|
S-M | -0.078 | .609**
| .792**
| .431**
| .437**
| .459**
| .754**
| .595**
| 0.187 | .949**
| .553**
|
M-1week | -0.177 | .648**
| .806**
| .387**
| 0.243 | .418**
| .660**
| .542**
| 0.203 | .849**
| .523**
|
M-2week | -0.238 | .640**
| .763**
| .341*
| 0.09 | .390**
| .528**
| .482**
| 0.269 | .704**
| .467**
|
EV-71% | 10.89 | 32.66 | 32.16 | 15.78 | 5.61 | 33.78 | 18.86 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 32.92 | 5.81 |
CA% | 35.64 | 34.68 | 29.12 | 36.70 | 63.18 | 10.92 | 41.21 | 70.87 | 88.24 | 51.02 | 11.75 |
CB% | 43.56 | 16.78 | 4.73 | 23.17 | 9.23 | 51.26 | 35.79 | 12.46 | 2.94 | 14.64 | 4.88 |
ECHO% | 15.84 | 16.11 | 34.07 | 24.89 | 22.07 | 4.03 | 4.14 | 16.67 | 7.88 | 1.45 | 5.17 |
Severe EV Cases | Mild EV Cases | EV-71 Isolation Rate | CAV Isolation Rate | CBV Isolation Rate | ECHO Isolation Rate | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Severe EV Cases | 1 | .553** | .498** | 0.184** | 0.124** | 0.206** |
Mild EV Cases | - | 1 | .278** | 0.18** | 0.11* | 0.13** |
EV-71 Isolation Rate | - | - | 1 | 0.19** | 0.16** | 0.29** |
CAV Isolation Rate | - | - | - | 1 | 0.14** | .064 |
CBV Isolation Rate | - | - | - | - | 1 | -.041 |
ECHO Isolation Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 1 |
Variable | Estimate | Standard Error | p-value |
---|---|---|---|
Model 1
| |||
Intercept | -1.40 | 0.33 | <.0001*** |
Mild EV cases | 1.23 | 0.10 | <.0001*** |
EV-71 | 0.22 | 0.02 | <.0001*** |
CAV | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
CBV | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.64 |
ECHO | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.19 |
Model 2
| |||
Intercept | -0.42 | 0.97 | 0.67 |
AR1,1 | 0.56 | 0.05 | <.0001*** |
AR1,2 | 0.27 | 0.05 | <.0001*** |
AR1,3 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.0009** |
AR1,4 | -0.11 | 0.05 | 0.0134* |
Mild EV cases | 1.23 | 0.16 | <.0001*** |
EV-71 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.80 |
CAV | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.85 |
CBV | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.96 |
ECHO | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.55 |
Spatial relationship between mild and severe EV Cases
Date | Ellipse size of the epidemics | Moving direction of the center (Y axis) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mild EV | Severe EV | Mild EV | Severe EV | |||
XStdDist (m) | YStdDist (m) | XStdDist (m) | YStdDist (m) | |||
Apr-08 | 117475.15 | 273726.81 | 60763.89 | 232460.24 | - | - |
May-08 | 154384.39 | 264808.86 | 70947.83 | 239600.52 | 7881.29 | 20605.32 |
Jun-08 | 178337.48 | 271730.16 | 73179.24 | 247525.28 | 9265.09 | 29547.7 |
Jul-08 | 149327.52 | 270119.86 | 88125.03 | 204859.63 | 1845.9 | -45949.13 |