Introduction
Methods
Population counts
Mortality data
Regional GDP per capita
Methods of analysis
Assessing the impact of mortality under-registration
Additional control variables
Variable | Period available | Units | Source |
---|---|---|---|
Registry of deaths [29] | 1979–2012 | Number of deaths | National Office of Statistics [DANE] |
Population (censuses and estimations) [29] | 1985–2020 | Inhabitants | |
GDP per capita [51] | 1980–1995 and 2000–2013 | Constant 2005 Colombian Pesos (COP) | |
Enrolment to college [40] | 2000–2012 | Percentage of enrolled students to post-secondary education among the population aged 16–24 | Ministry of education |
Subsidized regime – affiliated population [41] | 1995–2010 | Percentage of population insured in the subsidized scheme over total population | National Department of Planning [DNP] |
Contributive regime – affiliated population [41] | 1996–2010 | Percentage of population insured in the contributive scheme over total population | |
Transfers to health [42] | 1994–2013 | Constant 2005 Colombian Pesos (COP) |
Men | Women | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
20–44 years | ||||||
Men | −0.0031 | 0.0149 |
0.83
| −0.0014 | 0.0034 |
0.68
|
Women | −0.0060 | 0.0088 |
0.50
| 0.0015 | 0.0020 |
0.45
|
45–64 years | ||||||
Men | 0.0064 | 0.0149 |
0.67
| 0.0055 | 0.0169 |
0.75
|
Women | −0.0007 | 0.0121 |
0.95
| 0.0082 | 0.0109 |
0.45
|
65+ years | ||||||
Men | 0.0434 | 0.0976 |
0.66
| −0.0211 | 0.0842 |
0.80
|
Women | 0.0428 | 0.0820 |
0.60
| 0.1127 | 0.0586 |
0.05
|
Region dummies | Yes | Yes | ||||
Year dummies | Yes | Yes | ||||
Regional linear trends | No | No |
Results
1980–1995 | 2000–2010 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Standard deviation | Mean | Standard deviation | |
Response variable: | ||||
Mortality rates (per 100,000 population)* | ||||
Men | ||||
20–44 years | 75.59 | 11.22 | 68.19 | 12.21 |
45–64 years | 201.39 | 8.59 | 158.70 | 15.07 |
65+ years | 1009.54 | 68.79 | 932.02 | 18.43 |
Women | ||||
20–44 years | 24.26 | 2.65 | 18.58 | 1.60 |
45–64 years | 141.38 | 10.31 | 98.76 | 8.81 |
65+ years | 824.00 | 54.68 | 743.92 | 13.97 |
Explanatory variables: | ||||
Economic conditions | ||||
GDP per capita – year (constant thousands of 2005 COP: Colombian Pesos) | 4420 | 1634 | 7381 | 5022 |
Control variables | ||||
College enrollment rate | 17.9 % | 17.2 % | ||
Percentage of affiliation to subsidized scheme | 47.7 % | 19.2 % | ||
Percentage of affiliation to contributive scheme | 26.6 % | 13.6 % | ||
Health transfers (constant million of 2005 COP) | 101235 | 0.0022 |
1980–1995 | 2000–2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–44 years | Model 1 | Model 1 | Model 2 | ||||||
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
Men | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.0053 | 0.0100 |
0.59
| −0.0272 | 0.0119 |
0.02
| −0.0246 | 0.0114 |
0.03
|
College enrollment rate | 0.0152 | 0.0132 |
0.25
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | −0.0038 | 0.0135 |
0.78
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | 0.0216 | 0.0214 |
0.31
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | 0.0232 | 0.0134 |
0.08
| ||||||
Women | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.0024 | 0.0022 |
0.26
| −0.0049 | 0.0024 |
0.05
| −0.0043 | 0.0024 |
0.07
|
College enrollment rate | −0.0001 | 0.0017 |
0.93
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | 0.0022 | 0.0024 |
0.36
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | 0.0085 | 0.0049 |
0.08
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | 0.0039 | 0.0015 |
0.01
| ||||||
Region dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Year dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Regional linear trends | Yes | Yes | Yes |
1980–1995 | 2000–2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45–64 years | Model 1 | Model 1 | Model 2 | ||||||
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
Men | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.0227 | 0.0155 |
0.14
| −0.0038 | 0.0137 |
0.78
| −0.0049 | 0.0126 |
0.70
|
College enrollment rate | 0.0173 | 0.0091 |
0.06
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | −0.0011 | 0.0145 |
0.94
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | 0.0234 | 0.0262 |
0.37
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | −0.0010 | 0.0136 |
0.94
| ||||||
Women | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.0106 | 0.0147 |
0.47
| −0.0011 | 0.0085 |
0.90
| −0.0016 | 0.0081 |
0.84
|
College enrollment rate | 0.0063 | 0.0057 |
0.27
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | 0.0136 | 0.0080 |
0.09
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | −0.0028 | 0.0249 |
0.91
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | −0.0005 | 0.0055 |
0.93
| ||||||
Region dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Year dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Regional linear trends | Yes | Yes | Yes |
1980–1995 | 2000–2010 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65+ years | Model 1 | Model 1 | Model 3 | ||||||
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
Men | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.1659 | 0.0820 |
0.04
| 0.0560 | 0.0454 |
0.22
| 0.0515 | 0.0474 |
0.28
|
College enrollment rate | −0.1363 | 0.0444 |
0.00
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | 0.0707 | 0.0585 |
0.23
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | 0.1683 | 0.1373 |
0.22
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | 0.0054 | 0.0380 |
0.89
| ||||||
Women | |||||||||
Log GDP per capita | −0.1115 | 0.0667 |
0.09
| 0.0557 | 0.0514 |
0.28
| 0.0427 | 0.0526 |
0.42
|
College enrollment rate | −0.0144 | 0.0317 |
0.65
| ||||||
% subsidized insurance | 0.1365 | 0.0600 |
0.02
| ||||||
% contributive insurance | 0.1901 | 0.1303 |
0.14
| ||||||
Health transfers (log) | −0.0059 | 0.0283 |
0.84
| ||||||
Region dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Year dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Regional linear trends | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Men | Women | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
20–44 years | ||||||
Log GDPpc * Period | −0.0124 | 0.0202 |
0.54
| −0.0018 | 0.0044 |
0.69
|
Log GDPpc (Period 1) | −0.0044 | 0.0101 |
0.66
| −0.0024 | 0.0022 |
0.26
|
45–64 years | ||||||
Log GDPpc * Period | 0.0168 | 0.0254 |
0.51
| 0.0167 | 0.0189 |
0.38
|
Log GDPpc (Period 1) | −0.0230 | 0.0156 |
0.14
| −0.0107 | 0.0145 |
0.46
|
65+ years | ||||||
Log GDPpc * Period | 0.2327 | 0.1017 |
0.02
| 0.2126 | 0.0774 |
0.01
|
Log GDPpc (Period 1) | −0.1665 | 0.0820 |
0.04
| −0.1125 | 0.0664 |
0.09
|
Region dummies | Yes | Yes | ||||
Year dummies | Yes | Yes | ||||
Regional linear trends | Yes | Yes |
Robustness checks
Region | 1980–1995 | 2000–2010 |
---|---|---|
Antioquia | 43.6 % | 47.7 % |
Atlántico | 70.4 % | 83.7 % |
Bogotá | 89.4 % | 97.7 % |
Bolívar | 69.7 % | 69.6 % |
Boyacá | 93.8 % | 86.2 % |
Caldas | 87.0 % | 95.4 % |
Caquetá | 59.1 % | 72.5 % |
Cauca | 72.2 % | 74.3 % |
Cesar | 48.7 % | 80.0 % |
Córdoba | 48.4 % | 64.5 % |
Cundinamarca | 79.3 % | 86.3 % |
Chocó | 44.0 % | 58.7 % |
Huila | 90.2 % | 91.5 % |
La Guajira | 25.9 % | 47.6 % |
Magdalena | 48.6 % | 79.7 % |
Meta | 54.9 % | 84.9 % |
Nariño | 79.1 % | 83.0 % |
Norte de Santander | 85.5 % | 86.6 % |
Quindío | 76.4 % | 89.2 % |
Risaralda | 87.4 % | 95.6 % |
Santander | 86.6 % | 90.1 % |
Sucre | 56.5 % | 68.4 % |
Tolima | 72.0 % | 83.3 % |
Valle | 89.9 % | 98.2 % |
Arauca | 83.6 % | |
Casanare | 59.4 % | |
Putumayo | 60.8 % | |
San Andrés y Providencia Archipelago | 48.8 % | |
Amazonía | 55.6 % | |
Independent territories | 36.0 % | |
Colombia | 60.8 % | 73.1 % |
Log GDP per capita | 1980–1995 | 2000–2010 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Full | Registration > =70 % | Full | Registration > =70 % | |||||||||
25 regions | 12 regions | 29 regions | 13 regions | |||||||||
Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | Estimate | SE |
p value | |
20–44 years | ||||||||||||
Men | −0.0053 | 0.0100 |
0.59
| 0.0299 | 0.0203 |
0.14
| −0.0272 | 0.0119 |
0.02
| −0.0028 | 0.0167 |
0.87
|
Women | −0.0024 | 0.0022 |
0.26
| 0.0038 | 0.0050 |
0.44
| −0.0049 | 0.0024 |
0.05
| −0.0025 | 0.0048 |
0.61
|
45–64 years | ||||||||||||
Men | −0.0227 | 0.0155 |
0.14
| 0.0055 | 0.0358 |
0.88
| −0.0038 | 0.0137 |
0.78
| −0.0100 | 0.0293 |
0.73
|
Women | −0.0106 | 0.0147 |
0.47
| −0.0208 | 0.0196 |
0.29
| −0.0011 | 0.0085 |
0.90
| −0.0128 | 0.0150 |
0.39
|
65+ years | ||||||||||||
Men | −0.1659 | 0.0820 |
0.04
| −0.1554 | 0.1328 |
0.24
| 0.0560 | 0.0454 |
0.22
| 0.1585 | 0.0830 |
0.06
|
Women | −0.1115 | 0.0667 |
0.09
| −0.1216 | 0.0905 |
0.18
| 0.0557 | 0.0514 |
0.28
| 0.0728 | 0.0614 |
0.24
|