The use of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to address causality in complex systems: a systematic review of research on public health interventions

Interest in the use of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) arises in part from growing recognition of the need to broaden methodological capacity to address causality in complex systems [1‐3]. Guidance for researchers for evaluating complex interventions suggests process evaluations [4, 5] can provide evidence on the mechanisms of change, and the ways in which context affects outcomes. However, this does not address the more fundamental problems with trial and quasi-experimental designs arising from system complexity [6]. As Byrne notes, the key characteristic of complex systems is ‘emergence’ [7]: that is, effects may accrue from combinations of components, in contingent ways, which cannot be reduced to any one level. Asking about ‘what works’ in complex systems is not to ask a simple question about whether an intervention has particular effects, but rather to ask: “how the intervention works in relation to all existing components of the system and to other systems and their sub-systems that intersect with the system of interest” [7]. Public health interventions are typically attempts to effect change in systems that are themselves dynamic; approaches to evaluation are needed that can deal with emergence [8]. In short, understanding the uptake and impact of interventions requires methods that can account for the complex interplay of intervention conditions and system contexts.

To build a useful evidence base for public health, evaluations thus need to assess not just whether a particular intervention (or component) causes specific change in one variable, in controlled circumstances, but whether those interventions shift systems, and how specific conditions of interventions and setting contexts interact to lead to anticipated outcomes. There have been a number of calls for the development of methods in intervention research to address these issues of complex causation [9‐11], including calls for the greater use of case studies to provide evidence on the important elements of context [12, 13]. One approach for addressing causality in complex systems is Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA): a systematic way of comparing the outcomes of different combinations of system components and elements of context (‘conditions’) across a series of cases.

This systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) on 29 April 2019 (CRD42019131910). A protocol was prepared in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement [28], and published in 2019 [27], where the methods are explained in detail. EPPI-Reviewer 4 was used to manage the process and undertake screening of abstracts [29].

QCA has been widely used in public health research over the last decade to advance understanding of causal inference in complex systems. In this review of published evidence to date, we have identified studies using QCA to examine the configurations of conditions that lead to particular outcomes across contexts. As noted by most study authors, QCA methods have promised advantages over probabilistic statistical techniques for examining causation where systems and/or interventions are complex, providing public health researchers with a method to test the multiple pathways (configurations of conditions), and necessary and sufficient conditions that lead to desired health outcomes.

The origins of QCA approaches are in comparative policy studies. Rihoux et al’s review of peer-reviewed journal articles using QCA methods published up to 2011 found the majority of published examples were from political science and sociology, with fewer than 5% of the 313 studies they identified coming from health sciences [61]. They also reported few examples of the method being used in policy evaluation and implementation studies [62]. In the decade since their review of the field [61], there has been an emerging body of evaluative work in health: we identified 26 studies in the field of public health alone, with the majority published in public health journals. Across these studies, QCA has been used for evaluative questions in a range of settings and public health domains to identify the conditions under which interventions are implemented and/or have evidence of effect for improving population health. All studies included a series of cases that included some with and some without the outcome of interest (such as behaviour change, successful programme implementation, or good vaccination uptake). The dominance of high-income countries in both intervention settings and author affiliations is disappointing, but reflects the disproportionate location of public health research in the global north more generally [63].

The largest single group of studies included were systematic reviews, using QCA to compare interventions (or intervention components) to identify successful (and non-successful) configurations of conditions across contexts. Here, the value of QCA lies in its potential for synthesis with quantitative meta-synthesis methods to identify the particular conditions or contexts in which interventions or components are effective. As Parrott et al. note, for instance, their meta-analysis could identify probabilistic effects of weight management programmes, and the QCA analysis enabled them to address the “role that the context of the [paediatric weight management] intervention has in influencing how, when, and for whom an intervention mix will be successful” [50]. However, using QCA to identify configurations of conditions that lead to effective or non- effective interventions across particular areas of population health is an application that does move away in some significant respects from the origins of the method. First, researchers drawing on evidence from systematic reviews for their data are reliant largely on published evidence for information on conditions (such as the organisational contexts in which interventions were implemented, or the types of behaviour change theory utilised). Although guidance for describing interventions [64] advises key aspects of context are included in reports, this may not include data on the full range of conditions that might be causally important, and review research teams may have limited knowledge of these ‘cases’ themselves. Second, less successful interventions are less likely to be published, potentially limiting the diversity of cases, particularly of cases with unsuccessful outcomes. A strength of QCA is the separate analysis of conditions leading to positive and negative outcomes: this is precluded where there is insufficient evidence on negative outcomes [50]. Third, when including a range of types of intervention, it can be unclear whether the cases included are truly comparable. A QCA study requires a high degree of theoretical and pragmatic case knowledge on the part of the researcher to calibrate conditions to qualitative anchors: it is reliant on deep understanding of complex contexts, and a familiarity with how conditions interact within and across contexts. Perhaps surprising is that only seven of the studies included here clearly drew on qualitative data, given that QCA is primarily seen as a method that requires thick, detailed knowledge of cases, particularly when the aim is to understand complex causation [8]. Whilst research teams conducting QCA in the context of systematic reviews may have detailed understanding in general of interventions within their spheres of expertise, they are unlikely to have this for the whole range of cases, particularly where a diverse set of contexts (countries, organisational settings) are included. Making a theoretical case for the valid comparability of such a case series is crucial. There may, then, be limitations in the portability of QCA methods for conducting studies entirely reliant on data from published evidence.

QCA was developed for small and medium N series of cases, and (as in the field more broadly, [61]), the samples in our studies predominantly had between 10 and 50 cases. However, there is increasing interest in the method as an alternative or complementary technique to regression-oriented statistical methods for larger samples [65], such as from surveys, where detailed knowledge of cases is likely to be replaced by theoretical knowledge of relationships between conditions (see [23]). The two larger N (> 100 cases) studies in our sample were an individual level analysis of survey data [46, 47] and an analysis of intervention arms from a systematic review [50]. Larger sample sizes allow more conditions to be included in the analysis [23, 26], although for evaluative research, where the aim is developing a causal explanation, rather than simply exploring patterns, there remains a limit to the number of conditions that can be included. As the number of conditions included increases, so too does the number of possible configurations, increasing the chance of unique combinations and of generating spurious solutions with a high level of consistency. As a rule of thumb, once the number of conditions exceeds 6–8 (with up to 50 cases) or 10 (for larger samples), the credibility of solutions may be severely compromised [23].

QCA is a relatively new approach for public health research, with promise for contributing to much-needed methodological development for addressing causation in complex systems. This review has demonstrated the large range of evaluation questions that have been addressed to date using QCA, including contributions to process evaluations of trials and for exploring the conditions leading to effectiveness (or not) in systematic reviews of interventions. There is potential for QCA to be more widely used in evaluative research, to identify the conditions under which interventions across contexts are implemented or not, and the configurations of conditions associated with effect or lack of evidence of effect. However, QCA will not be appropriate for all evaluations, and cannot be the only answer to addressing complex causality. For explanatory questions, the approach is most appropriate when there is a series of enough comparable cases with and without the outcome of interest, and where the researchers have detailed understanding of those cases, and conditions. To improve the credibility of findings from QCA for public health evidence users, we recommend that studies are reported with the usual attention to methodological transparency and data availability, with key details that allow readers to judge the credibility of causal configurations reported. If the use of QCA continues to expand, it may be useful to develop more comprehensive consensus guidelines for conduct and reporting.