Introduction
Methods
Setting
Data set
National Child Measurement Programme
Individual-level variables
School and neighbourhood level variables
Ethical approval
Analysis
Results
Sample description
Reception | Year 6 | Reception | Year 6 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sample size (proportion of sample) | zBMI | Overweight/obese (>85th centile) | zBMI | Overweight/obese (>85th centile) | |||
INDIVIDUAL LEVEL VARIABLES | |||||||
Sex | % | % | Sex | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
F | 49 | 49 | F | 0.33 (1.05) | 22 (22,23) | 0.45 (1.24) | 33 (33,34) |
M | 51 | 51 | M | 0.35 (1.13) | 24 (24,25) | 0.59 (1.23) | 37 (36,37) |
Ethnicity | % | % | Ethnicity | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
White British | 57 | 62 | White British | 0.41 (0.97) | 24 (23,24) | 0.51 (1.19) | 33 (33,34) |
White other | 6 | 5 | White other | 0.28 (1.07) | 21 (19,23) | 0.57 (1.24) | 37 (34,40) |
Mixed ethnicity | 6 | 5 | Mixed ethnicity | 0.33 (1.11) | 23 (21,25) | 0.58 (1.26) | 37 (34,39) |
Indian | 8 | 9 | Indian | −0.09 (1.32) | 17 (16,19) | 0.37 (1.41) | 35 (33,37) |
Pakistani | 5 | 5 | Pakistani | 0.05 (1.29) | 20 (18,22) | 0.48 (1.44) | 39 (37,42) |
Bangladeshi | 2 | 2 | Bangladeshi | 0.24 (1.35) | 27 (24,32) | 0.73 (1.37) | 46 (41,50) |
Other Asian backgrounds | 4 | 3 | Other Asian backgrounds | 0.17 (1.15) | 19 (17,22) | 0.50 (1.26) | 35 (32,39) |
Black Caribbean | 1 | 1 | Black Caribbean | 0.47 (1.14) | 32 (26,38) | 0.74 (1.20) | 41 (35,47) |
Black African | 8 | 6 | Black African | 0.58 (1.18) | 32 (30,34) | 0.71 (1.21) | 42 (40,45) |
Other Black backgrounds | 1 | 1 | Other black backgrounds | 0.49 (1.22) | 32 (27,38) | 0.88 (1.15) | 44 (36,52) |
Chinese | 1 | 0.3 | Chinese | −0.03 (0.99) | 15 (10,22) | 0.16 (1.21) | 23 (14,34) |
Any other ethnic group | 1 | 1 | Any other ethnic group | 0.37 (1.25) | 25 (21,30) | 0.38 (1.23) | 30 (24,36) |
Year of measurement | % | % | Year of measurement | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
2007/08 | 10 | 12 | 2007/08 | 0.38 (1.08) | 25 (23,26) | 0.47 (1.22) | 34 (32,35) |
2008/09 | 11 | 12 | 2008/09 | 0.37 (1.05) | 23 (22,25) | 0.53 (1.20) | 35 (33,36) |
2009/10 | 12 | 13 | 2009/10 | 0.38 (1.06) | 23 (22,24) | 0.54 (1.23) | 35 (34,37) |
2010/11 | 12 | 13 | 2010/11 | 0.38 (1.08) | 24 (23,26) | 0.56 (1.21) | 36 (34,37) |
2011/12 | 13 | 13 | 2011/12 | 0.37 (1.09) | 24 (23,26) | 0.52 (1.25) | 36 (34,37) |
2012/13 | 14 | 13 | 2012/13 | 0.25 (1.07) | 21 (19,22) | 0.50 (1.26) | 34 (33,36) |
2013/14 | 14 | 12 | 2013/14 | 0.29 (1.18) | 25 (24,26) | 0.53 (1.26) | 35 (34,37) |
2014/15 | 15 | 13 | 2014/15 | 0.32 (1.08) | 23 (22,24) | 0.52 (1.27) | 35 (34,37) |
Age | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Age (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
Age (months) | 59.7 (59.7, 59.8) | 132 (132.0, 132.1) | 1 | 0.37 (1.08) | 24 (23,25) | 0.54 (1.22) | 35 (34,36) |
2 | 0.34 (1.09) | 23 (22,24) | 0.53 (1.22) | 35 (33,36) | |||
3 | 0.33 (1.08) | 23 (22,24) | 0.52 (1.26) | 35 (34,36) | |||
4 | 0.31 (1.11) | 23 (22,24) | 0.49 (1.25) | 35 (34,36) | |||
Total | 28,407 | 25,763 | Total | 0.34 (1.09) | 23 (23,24) | 0.52 (1.24) | 35 (34,36) |
Reception | Year 6 | Reception | Year 6 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sample size (proportion of sample) | zBMI | Overweight/obese (>85th centile) | zBMI | Overweight/obese (>85th centile) | |||
SCHOOL LEVEL VARIABLES | |||||||
School IMD Quintile | % | % | School IMD Quintile | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
1 (lowest deprivation) | 8 | 2167 (8) | 1 (lowest deprivation) | 0.14 (1.04) | 17 (15,19) | 0.35 (1.21) | 29 (27,31) |
2 | 15 | 3836 (15) | 2 | 0.28 (1.00) | 20 (19,21) | 0.41 (1.17) | 30 (28,31) |
3 | 26 | 6813 (26) | 3 | 0.39 (1.05) | 25 (24,26) | 0.51 (1.22) | 34 (33,35) |
4 | 20 | 5000 (19) | 4 | 0.39 (1.09) | 26 (24,27) | 0.57 (1.24) | 37 (35,38) |
5 (highest deprivation) | 33 | 7947 (31) | 5 (highest deprivation) | 0.34 (1.16) | 24 (23,25) | 0.6 (1.29) | 39 (37,40) |
Ofsted | % | % | Ofsted | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
Good or above | 59 | 14,938 (58) | Good or above | 0.31 (1.09) | 23 (22, 23) | 0.5 (1.23) | 34 (34,35) |
Satisfactory or below | 42 | 10,825 (42) | Satisfactory or below | 0.37 (1.09) | 25 (24, 25) | 0.6 (1.25) | 36 (35, 37) |
Median (IQR) | Median (IQR) | Number in school (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | |
Number in school | 396 (226) | 398 (236) | 1 | 0.39 (1.06) | 25 (24,26) | 0.51 (1.22) | 34.3 (33.1,35.5) |
2 | 0.38 (1.06) | 24 (23,25) | 0.56 (1.22) | 35.8 (34.6,36.9) | |||
3 | 0.31 (1.11) | 23 (22,24) | 0.51 (1.25) | 34.7 (33.5,35.9) | |||
4 | 0.27 (1.13) | 22 (21,23) | 0.5 (1.27) | 35 (33.9,36.2) | |||
Median (IQR) | Median (IQR) | % BME (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | |
% BME | 38 (31) | 36 (30) | 1 | 0.34 (1) | 22 (21,23) | 0.48 (1.18) | 33 (32,34) |
2 | 0.37 (1.06) | 24 (23,25) | 0.51 (1.21) | 34 (33,35) | |||
3 | 0.36 (1.07) | 24 (23,25) | 0.53 (1.27) | 36 (34,37) | |||
4 | 0.28 (1.21) | 23 (22,24) | 0.56 (1.3) | 38 (37,39) | |||
Median (IQR) | Median (IQR) | % ESL (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | |
% ESL | 22 (27) | 21 (27) | 1 | 0.35 (1) | 23 (22,24) | 0.47 (1.19) | 33 (31,34) |
2 | 0.38 (1.05) | 24 (23,25) | 0.51 (1.21) | 34 (33,35) | |||
3 | 0.35 (1.09) | 24 (23,25) | 0.55 (1.26) | 36 (33,37) | |||
4 | 0.28 (1.2) | 23 (23,24) | 0.55 (1.3) | 37 (36,37) | |||
Median (IQR) | Median (IQR) | % KS2 (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | |
% KS2 | 75 (18) | 75 (19) | 1 | 0.35 (1.11) | 24 (23,25) | 0.58 (1.27) | 37 (36,39) |
2 | 0.36 (1.09) | 24 (23,25) | 0.53 (1.25) | 36 (33,37) | |||
3 | 0.33 (1.1) | 23 (22,24) | 0.48 (1.22) | 33 (32,34) | |||
4 | 0.32 (1.06) | 23 (22,23) | 0.49 (1.2) | 33 (32,35) | |||
Median (IQR) | Median (IQR) | Takeaways near school (quantiles) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | |
Takeaways near school | 2 (4) | 2 (4) | 1 | 0.34 (1.07) | 23 (22,23) | 0.5 (1.23) | 34 (33,35) |
2 | 0.35 (1.1) | 24 (23,25) | 0.57 (1.26) | 37 (35,38) | |||
3 | 0.37 (1.06) | 24 (23,25) | 0.53 (1.21) | 35 (34,36) | |||
4 | 0.29 (1.16) | 23 (22,25) | 0.51 (1.28) | 35 (34,37) | |||
NEIGHBOURHOOD LEVEL VARIABLES | |||||||
Neighbourhood IMD Quintile | % | % | Neighbourhood IMD Quintile | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) | Mean (SD) | % (95% CI) |
1 (lowest deprivation) | 4 | 5 | 1 (lowest deprivation) | 0.04 (1.04) | 14.3 (12,17) | 0.28 (1.19) | 27 (25,29) |
2 | 13 | 14 | 2 | 0.27 (1.01) | 20 (19,22) | 0.41 (1.18) | 31 (29,32) |
3 | 19 | 20 | 3 | 0.34 (1.04) | 23 (22,24) | 0.49 (1.21) | 33 (32,34) |
4 | 24 | 24 | 4 | 0.37 (1.07) | 24 (23,25) | 0.54 (1.24) | 36 (35,37) |
5 (highest deprivation) | 40 | 36 | 5 (highest deprivation) | 0.37 (1.14) | 25 (24,26) | 0.6 (1.28) | 38 (37,39) |
Total | 28,407 | 25,763 | Total | 0.34 (1.09) | 23 (23,24) | 0.52 (1.24) | 35 (34,36) |
Multi-level analysis
Reception year
Girls | Boys | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | |
FIXED EFFECTS | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |
White British (reference) | 0.34 [0.31,0.37] | 0.41 [0.38,0.45] | 0.29 [0.21,0.38] | 0.36 [0.32,0.39] | 0.43 [0.39,0.46] | 0.38 [0.30,0.47] |
Ethnicity | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | ||
White other | −0.16 [−0.23,-0.08] P < 0.001 | −0.15 [−0.23,-0.07] P < 0.001 | −0.14 [−0.21,-0.06] P < 0.001 | − 0.13 [− 0.21,-0.05] P < 0.001 | ||
Mixed ethnicity | −0.11 [− 0.18,-0.03] P = 0.002 | −0.11 [− 0.18,-0.04] P = 0.001 | −0.07 [− 0.15,0.00] P = 0.034 | − 0.08 [− 0.15,-0.00] P = 0.019 | ||
Indian | − 0.47 [− 0.54,-0.41] P < 0.001 | − 0.47 [− 0.54,-0.41] P < 0.001 | − 0.53 [− 0.60,-0.46] P < 0.001 | −0.53 [− 0.60,-0.46] P < 0.001 | ||
Pakistani | −0.30 [− 0.39,-0.21] P < 0.001 | −0.32 [− 0.40,-0.23] P < 0.001 | − 0.43 [− 0.52,-0.35] P < 0.001 | −0.45 [− 0.53,-0.36] P < 0.001 | ||
Bangladeshi | −0.14 [− 0.28,0.01] P = 0.031 | −0.16 [− 0.30,-0.01] P = 0.016 | − 0.15 [− 0.30,0.00] P = 0.025 | −0.17 [− 0.33,-0.02] P = 0.014 | ||
Other Asian backgrounds | −0.28 [− 0.38,-0.19] P < 0.001 | −0.29 [− 0.38,-0.20] P < 0.001 | − 0.22 [− 0.32,-0.13] P < 0.001 | −0.23 [− 0.32,-0.13] P < 0.001 | ||
Black Caribbean | 0.08 [−0.12,0.28] P = 0.216 | 0.07 [− 0.13,0.26] P = 0.257 | 0.01 [− 0.18,0.20] P = 0.486 | − 0.01 [− 0.20,0.18] P = 0.465 | ||
Black African | 0.12 [0.06,0.19] P < 0.001 | 0.11 [0.04,0.17] P < 0.001 | 0.18 [0.11,0.25] P < 0.001 | 0.17 [0.10,0.24] P < 0.001 | ||
Other Black Backgrounds | 0.14 [− 0.03,0.30] P = 0.053 | 0.12 [− 0.04,0.29] P = 0.07 | −0.02 [− 0.20,0.15] P = 0.408 | − 0.02 [− 0.20,0.15] P = 0.392 | ||
Chinese | −0.34 [− 0.60,-0.09] P = 0.002 | −0.33 [− 0.58,-0.08] P = 0.005 | −0.48 [− 0.77,-0.20] P < 0.001 | −0.46 [− 0.75,-0.18] P = 0.002 | ||
Any other ethnic group | −0.14 [− 0.29,0.01] P = 0.033 | −0.15 [− 0.30,− 0.01] P = 0.022 | 0.07 [− 0.10,0.23] P = 0.214 | 0.06 [− 0.10,0.22] P = 0.231 | ||
Child covariates | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | ||||
Year of measurement | -0.01 [−0.02,-0.01] P = 0.001 | −0.02 [− 0.03,-0.01] P < 0.001 | ||||
School and neighbourhood covariates | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | ||||
Neighbourhood IMD decile | 0.03 [0.02,0.04] P < 0.001 | 0.02 [0.01,0.03] P < 0.001 | ||||
RANDOM EFFECTS | ||||||
Decomposition of variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance |
School level VPC | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
Neighbourhood level VPC | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Child level VPC | 98.0% | 98.5% | 99.0% | 98.2% | 98.9% | 99.0% |
MODEL FIT | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC |
Bayesian DIC | 40,438 | 40,179 | 40,161 | 44,696 | 44,379 | 44,357 |
Observations | 13,828 | 13,828 | 13,828 | 14,579 | 14,579 | 14,579 |
Year six
Girls | Boys | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | Null model | Model 1 a | Model 2 b | |
FIXED EFFECTS | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] |
White British (reference) | 0.46 [0.43,0.50] | 0.48 [0.44,0.52] | 0.18 [0.09,0.27] | 0.59 [0.55,0.62] | 0.56 [0.52,0.60] | 0.39 [0.30,0.49] |
Ethnicity | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | Coefficients | ||
White other | −0.05 [−0.15,0.05] P = 0.171 | −0.08 [−0.18,0.03] P = 0.072 | 0.17 [0.07,0.27] P < 0.001 | 0.15 [0.05,0.25] P = 0.002 | ||
Mixed ethnicity | −0.00 [− 0.10,0.10] P = 0.49 | −0.02 [− 0.11,0.08] P = 0.368 | 0.11 [0.02,0.20] P = 0.01 | 0.10 [0.00,0.19] P = 0.02 | ||
Indian | −0.25 [− 0.33,-0.18] P < 0.001 | −0.26 [− 0.34,-0.18] P < 0.001 | −0.03 [− 0.11,0.05] P = 0.215 | −0.03 [− 0.11,0.04] P = 0.205 | ||
Pakistani | − 0.08 [− 0.19,0.03] P = 0.065 | −0.13 [− 0.23,-0.02] P = 0.009 | −0.04 [− 0.14,0.06] P = 0.214 | −0.07 [− 0.17,0.034] P = 0.09 | ||
Bangladeshi | 0.15 [−0.02,0.32] P = 0.046 | 0.10 [− 0.07,0.27] P = 0.111 | 0.33 [0.16,0.50] P < 0.001 | 0.29 [0.12,0.46] P < 0.001 | ||
Other Asian backgrounds | −0.15 [− 0.28,-0.03] P = 0.01 | −0.17 [− 0.30,-0.05] P = 0.004 | 0.06 [− 0.06,0.17] P = 0.168 | 0.04 [− 0.08,0.16] P = 0.251 | ||
Black Caribbean | 0.41 [0.19,0.64] P < 0.001 | 0.40 [0.17,0.62] P < 0.001 | 0.00 [−0.23,0.23] P = 0.496 | −0.02 [− 0.24,0.21] P = 0.437 | ||
Black African | 0.19 [0.09,0.29] P < 0.001 | 0.14 [0.04,0.23] P = 0.004 | 0.17 [0.08,0.27] P < 0.001 | 0.14 [0.04,0.24] P = 0.003 | ||
Other Black Backgrounds | 0.41 [0.14,0.68] P = 0.001 | 0.37 [0.11,0.64] P = 0.002 | 0.27 [0.00,0.55] P = 0.024 | 0.25 [−0.02,0.53] P = 0.035 | ||
Chinese | −0.60 [−1.07,-0.26] P = 0.001 | − 0.66 [−1.07,-0.26] P = 0.001 | 0.10 [− 0.32,0.52] P = 0.317 | 0.10 [− 0.31,0.52] P = 0.312 | ||
Any other ethnic group | − 0.24 [− 0.46,0.00] P = 0.022 | −0.28 [− 0.50,-0.05] P = 0.009 | −0.06 [− 0.28,0.16] P = 0.302 | −0.08 [− 0.30,0.14] P = 0.234 | ||
School and neighbourhood covariates | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | Coefficient [95% credible intervals] | ||||
School IMD decile | 0.02 [0.01,0.04] P = 0.001 | 0.01 [−0.01,0.02] P = 0.188 | ||||
Neighbourhood IMD decile | 0.02 [0.01,0.04] P < 0.001 | 0.02 [0.01,0.03] P = 0.003 | ||||
RANDOM EFFECTS | ||||||
Decomposition of variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance | % variance |
School level VPC | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
Neighbourhood level VPC | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
Child level VPC | 98.4% | 98.6% | 99.3% | 98.9% | 98.8% | 99.0% |
MODEL FIT | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC | DIC |
Bayesian DIC | 41,352 | 41,272 | 41,254 | 42,615 | 42,591 | 42,585 |
Observations | 12,667 | 12,667 | 12,667 | 13,096 | 13,096 | 13,096 |