Background
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Flexible and reliable contractual arrangements: often operationalized as employment protection legislation for temporary and standard workers [4]. EPL concerns rules regarding hiring and firing, strictness of regulation of temporary contracts, and regulation of temporary agency work. Less strict EPL is likely to help outsiders enter the labour market [14, 15], but may on the other hand lead to ‘insiders’ losing their jobs if they become ill [16, 17].
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Comprehensive lifelong learning strategies concern both regular education and continuing on-the-job training, and “require the active involvement of governments, social partners, enterprises, and individual workers” [4]. Life-long learning (LLL) complements ALMP (below) and could be seen as extending the strategy of skill enhancement to those in employment. It has been found that firm-provided training significantly increases future employment prospects and both current and future wages [18, 19]. However we are interested in labour market outsiders, for whom LLL may be less important.
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Effective labour market policies, defined as active labour market measures (ALMP) and public employment services (PES) [4]. ALMP includes training, employment subsidies, rehabilitation, direct job creation and the provision of wage subsidies to firms that employ people with disabilities. PES covers labour market interventions related to job-search activities. Both ALMP and PES should improve opportunities for employment, although different measures may not be equally efficient [20‐22]. A recent evaluation of German ALMP shows that programme participation was equally beneficial regardless of education and skills level [23]. ALMP is expected to be associated with higher levels of return to work.
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Modern social security systems; i.e. adequate income support that both encourages employment and facilitates labour market mobility [4]. Relatively high and long-lasting benefits can lead to longer periods of unemployment, by decreasing job search intensity and increasing workers’ reservation wage [24, 25]. However, adequate unemployment benefits may improve the quality of job matches and increase wages [24]. Furthermore, benefit sanctions and warnings have been found to not only increase exit from unemployment, but also exit into non-employment, and to lower the quality of the jobs found both in terms of their duration and levels of pay [26]. Sickness benefits can be seen as an alternative to unemployment benefits for people with health problems. Studies show that the design of the benefit system strongly impacts on inflow and outflow into sickness and unemployment insurance [27, 28]. However, people with long-term health problems may be less likely to be affected by benefit levels, given that they may be simply too ill to work [29]. We make no hypotheses regarding the direction of association for benefit expenditure, as this is likely to differ depending on the surrounding policy and labour market context.
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Reconciliation of work and private life; made possible by high social services expenditure on child care [4]; in this study we have also included social services expenditure in old age. With population ageing, caring for elderly parents has become a concern for many people in midlife, and may impede opportunities for labour market participation. Social services are part of flexicurity in that they promote employment [30]. Such expenditure may be especially important for those on a low income as it is likely to lead to less expensive services. Given the gendered nature of caring, women in our target group probably benefit most from this [31].
Methods
Outcome data - return to work rates and ratios
Country | N | Employed at T2 n (%) |
---|---|---|
AT | 690 | 95 (14) |
BE | 880 | 72 (8) |
CY | 593 | 63 (11) |
CZ | 706 | 166 (24) |
DK | 206 | 68 (33) |
EE | 625 | 162 (26) |
ES | 2350 | 316 (13) |
FI | 462 | 137 (30) |
FR | 1298 | 175 (13) |
GR | 532 | 52 (10) |
HU | 1138 | 229 (20) |
IE | 520 | 35 (7) |
IT | 2238 | 248 (11) |
LT | 437 | 95 (22) |
LU | 635 | 73 (12) |
LV | 810 | 203 (25) |
NL | 675 | 118 (17) |
NO | 205 | 71 (35) |
PL | 1512 | 194 (13) |
PT | 1144 | 147 (13) |
RO | 244 | 29 (12) |
SE | 210 | 72 (34) |
SI | 584 | 62 (11) |
SK | 446 | 91 (20) |
UK | 741 | 155 (21) |
Policy data
Core dimensions | Operationalization | Indicators |
---|---|---|
Flexible and reliable contractual arrangements | Employment protection legislation | EPL (general) EPT (EPL for temporary employees) EPL OR EPT |
Comprehensive lifelong learning strategies | Life-long learning | LLL - Proportion in education and training during the past 4 weeks |
Effective labour market policies | Active labour market policy | PES - Expenditure on public employment services standardized to the proportion unemployed |
ALMP - Expenditure on ALMP measures (training, job rotation/job sharing, employment incentives, supported employment and rehabilitation, direct job creation and start-up incentives) standardized to the proportion unemployed ALMPtot – summary of PES and ALMP | ||
Modern social security systems | a. Social security | PLMP - Expenditure on unemployment standardized to the proportion unemployed |
Sickben - Expenditure on sickness benefits standardized to the proportion with activity limitations in the age group 45–64 years PLMP OR Sickben | ||
b. Social services | ExpChild - Expenditure on social services directed at families standardized to the proportion 0–4 years | |
ExpOld - Expenditure on social services directed at pensioners standardized to the proportion 65+ years SocExp – summary of ExpChild and ExpOld |
Qualitative comparative analysis
Range | Thresholds corresponding to fully in – neither in nor out - fully out | |
---|---|---|
Outcomes | ||
High rate ratio (RR) | 0.38–0.99 | 0.8-0.66-0.5 |
High RTW (%) | 4–33 | 35.0-13-9.0 |
Conditions | ||
High Employment (%) | 61.7–79.0 | 75.0-71.0-63.0 |
Low Unemployment (%) | 2.8–12.4 | 5.0-7-9.0 |
Low EPL (score 0–6) | 0.74–3.27 | 1.0-2.0-3.5 |
Low EPT (score 0–6) | 0.25–3.83 | 0.75-1.4-3.5 |
High PESa
| 0.00–0.11 | 0.06-0.02-0.007 |
High ALMPa
| 0.01–0.30 | 0.25-0.07-0.02 |
High ALMPtot (summary score) | 0.01–0.37 | 0.3-0.07-0.02 |
High PLMPa
| 0.01–0.46 | 0.25-0.10-0.02 |
High Sickbenb
| 0.02–0.24 | 0.1-0.06-0.035 |
High ExpChildc
| 0–0.38 | 0.2-0.1-0.05 |
High ExpOldd
| 0–0.14 | 0.1-0.03-0.01 |
High SocExp (summary score) | 0.00–0.50 | 0.3-0.135-0.1 |
High LLL (%) | 2.9–29.9 | 20-9-5 |
Row | Countries | High Emp | Low EPT | High ALMP | High PLMP or Sick | High OldServ | High RTW | Row consistency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | NO | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.86 |
2 | UK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.84 |
3 | HU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.81 |
4 | SE, FI, NL, DK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.79 |
5 | EE, CZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.73 |
6 | SK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 |
7 | ES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 |
8 | IE | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 |
9 | PL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.50 |
10 | AT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.46 |
11 | PT, SI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.42 |
12 | GR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.39 |
13 | FR, BE | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.32 |
14 | LU, IT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.31 |
Results
How well do countries perform?
QCA analyses
Outcome 1: High rates of return to work among those with low education
Outcome 2: High equality of employment chances (rate ratio)
Row | Countries | Une-ave | Low EPL | ALMP | SocExp | PLMP or Sickben | RR | Row consistency |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | SE, FI, NL, DK | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.98 |
2 | NO, AT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.97 |
3 | UK, CZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.94 |
4 | SI, IT, LU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.92 |
5 | FR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 |
6 | HU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.68 |
7 | ES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.66 |
8 | PT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 |
9 | GR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.59 |
10 | EE, PL, SK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 |
11 | BE, IE | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 |