Introduction
Methods
Scenarios of Interest
The Two-Part Model
Epidemiologic Module
Outcomes Module
Variable | Estimate ($US) | Source |
---|---|---|
Vaccine acquisition | ||
TIV | 9.45 | CDC [39] |
aTIV | 13.65 | Assumption |
QIV | 13.65 | Assumption |
Vaccine administration | ||
All ages | 21.00 | Prosser [41] |
Antiviral cost | ||
All ages | 92.35 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Medical consultation | ||
All ages | 98.79 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Complications | ||
Pneumonia without hospitalization | ||
All ages | 206 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Pneumonia with hospitalization | ||
0–19 | 5513 | Talbird et al. [42] |
20–64 | 14,828 | |
≥65 | 14,137 | |
Bronchitis without hospitalization | ||
All ages | 221 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Bronchitis with hospitalization | ||
0–19 | 3906 | Talbird et al. [42] |
20–64 | 7449 | |
≥65 | 8834 | |
Other respiratory without hospitalization | ||
All ages | 221 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Other respiratory with hospitalization | ||
0–19 | 3906 | Talbird et al. [42] |
20–64 | 7449 | |
≥65 | 8834 | |
CVD without hospitalization | ||
All ages | 2711 | American Heart Association [43] |
CVD with hospitalization | ||
All ages | 6017 | American Heart Association [43] |
Otitis media | ||
All ages | 224 | Talbird et al. [42] |
Lost productivity costs | ||
Without complications | ||
0–3 | 145 | Molinari et al. [27]; case not medically attended |
4–6 | 97 | |
7–19 | 73 | |
20–64 | 68 | |
65+ | 145 | |
Extra loss due to minor complications | ||
0–3 | 183 | Molinari et al. [27]; weighted average of non-high-risk and high-risk outpatient visit |
4–6 | 209 | |
7–9 | 191 | |
10–19 | 186 | |
20–49 | 167 | |
50–64 | 386 | |
65+ | 832 | |
Extra loss due to serious complications (pneumonia, bronchitis, CVD) | ||
0–3 | 1333 | Molinari et al. [27]; weighted average of non-high-risk and high-risk outpatient visit |
4–6 | 1576 | |
7–9 | 1520 | |
10–19 | 1603 | |
20–49 | 1934 | |
50–64 | 2411 | |
65+ | 2256 | |
Otitis media | ||
All ages | 0 | Assumed no additional days lost |
Variable | Estimate | Low | High | Distribution | Source/comments |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minor complications | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | 0.00000 | Gamma | Assumption |
Pneumonia | 0.01041 | 0.00674 | 0.01487 | Gamma | Lee et al. [44] |
Bronchitis | 0.00904 | 0.00585 | 0.01291 | Gamma | Lee et al. [44] |
Other respiratory | 0.00904 | 0.00585 | 0.01291 | Gamma | Lee et al. [44] |
CVD | 0.10000 | 0.06471 | 0.14284 | Gamma | Dyer et al. [45] |
Otitis media | 0.01382 | 0.00894 | 0.01974 | Gamma | Prosser et al. [46] |
Age | Discounted life-years lost when dying | Discounted QALYs lost when dying | Source/comments | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | Estimate | Low | High | Distribution | ||
0–3 | 30.8 | 27.7 | 25.0 | 30.5 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
4–6 | 30.5 | 27.5 | 24.8 | 30.2 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
7–9 | 30.2 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 29.8 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
10–19 | 29.3 | 26.4 | 23.8 | 29.0 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
20–34 | 27.2 | 24.5 | 22.1 | 26.9 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
35–49 | 23.5 | 21.1 | 19.1 | 23.2 | Normal | EQ-5D assumed 0.9 over rest of life |
50–64 | 18.3 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 17.3 | Normal | Fryback et al. [47] adjusted average for remaining life-years |
65–69 | 14.2 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 13.2 | Normal | Fryback et al. [47] adjusted average for remaining life-years |
70+ | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 6.5 | Normal | Fryback et al. [47] adjusted average for remaining life-years |
Calibration of the Model
Estimation of Model Outcomes
Results
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
No. of influenza cases | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 6,027,660 (78,909; 36,311,558) | 5,777,353 (75,423; 38,843,395) | 5,261,063 (75,878; 33,685,356) | 21,578,258 (123,112; 59,447,194) | 19,316,966 (126,949; 55,496,404) |
QIV | 6,038,826 (78,925; 36,766,189) | 6,157,580 (76,309; 39,373,704) | 5,623,605 (76,992; 36,418,579) | 21,741,326 (122,355; 58,978,203) | 19,986,583 (127,646; 57,253,746) |
TIV | 9,223,607 (84,893; 45,308,781) | 6,646,200 (76,373; 40,819,092) | 5,567,761 (78,157; 35,703,665) | 28,003,833 (147,513; 65,918,137) | 21,369,092 (129,967; 58,358,976) |
Differencea
| −11,166 (−15; −454,631) | −380,227 (−886; −530,310) | −362,542 (−1114; −2,733,223) | −163,069 (757; 468,991) | −669,617 (−697; −1,757,342) |
% difference | −0.2% (0%; −1.2%) | −6.2% (−1.2%; −1.3%) | −6.4% (−1.4%; −7.5%) | −0.8% (0.6%; 0.8%) | −3.4% (−0.5%; −3.1%) |
No. of hospitalized cases | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 74,540 (732; 478,659) | 68,658 (731; 488,150) | 61,649 (717; 422,060) | 270,480 (1400; 887,920) | 234,462 (1386; 783,668) |
QIV | 75,905 (737; 504,229) | 76,027 (753; 529,411) | 70,303 (729; 477,838) | 275,925 (1417; 892,722) | 254,636 (1456; 861,123) |
TIV | 119,250 (838; 638,887) | 83,191 (761; 553,680) | 69,182 (737; 474,702) | 364,768 (1746; 1,065,454) | 272,990 (1512; 870,456) |
Differencea
| −1365 (−5; −25,570) | −7369 (−22; −41,261) | −8654 (−12; −55,778) | −5445 (−17; −4802) | −20,174 (−70; −77,455) |
% difference | −1.8% (−0.6%; −5.1%) | −9.7% (−2.9%; −7.8%) | −12.3% (−1.7%; −11.7%) | −2.0% (−1.2%; −0.5%) | −7.9% (−4.8%; 9.0%) |
No. of deaths | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 11,111 (128; 69,130) | 9972 (123; 68,219) | 8612 (117; 58,637) | 41,558 (207; 125,706) | 34,556 (218; 108,141 |
QIV | 11,532 (134; 70,644) | 11,661 (129; 79,266) | 10,638 (123; 70,694) | 43,098 (210; 127,822) | 39,650 (232; 125,079) |
TIV | 18,554 (145; 93,987) | 12,898 (129; 81,952) | 10,403 (122; 71,827) | 58,292 (258; 153,658) | 42,631 (238; 125,801) |
Differencea
| −421 (−5; −1515) | −1689 (−6; −11,047) | −2026 (−5; −12,057) | −1540 (−3; −2116) | −5094 (−14; −16,939) |
% difference | −3.7% (−4.0%; −2.1%) | −14.5% (−4.7%; −13.9%) | −19.0% (−4.3%; −17.1%) | −3.6% (−1.3%; −1.7%) | −12.8% (−6.1%; −13.5%) |
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average intensity | High intensity | |||
High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
No. of influenza cases | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 21,745,069 (135,227; 57,835,457) | 38,432,664 (456,246; 64,711,422) | 38,509,481 (342,987; 68,646,356) | 37,884,145 (485,622; 66,618,131) |
QIV | 22,616,695 (136,917; 59,223,921) | 38,792,998 (458,714; 65,017,135) | 39,367,544 (329,147; 70,314,941) | 39,213,345 (591,599; 68,087,578) |
TIV | 22,528,976 (137,585; 57,974,422) | 45,945,792 (1,428,394; 71,443,604) | 41,066,246 (397,398; 71,657,334) | 39,161,286 (457,098; 67,290,103) |
Differencea
| −871,626 (−1,60; −1,388,463) | −360,335 (−2468; −305,713) | −858,063 (13,839; −1,668,585) | −1,329,200 (−105,978; −1,469,448) |
% difference | −3.9% (−1.2%; −2.3%) | −0.9% (−0.5%; −0.5%) | −2.2% (4.2%; −2.4%) | −3.4% (−17.9%; −2.2%) |
No. of hospitalized cases | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 265,663 (1394; 843,838) | 484,446 (6399; 1,016,720) | 467,724 (3770; 1,067,724) | 457,235 (5820; 1,030,868) |
QIV | 291,576 (1496; 925,050) | 496,117 (6064; 1,044,831) | 500,958 (4026; 1,146,636) | 500,909 (6419; 1,100,235) |
TIV | 290,282 (1467; 910,043) | 601,994 (17,940; 1,177,357) | 526,056 (4632; 1,197,190) | 499,814 (5722; 1,122,835) |
Differencea
| −25,914 (−102; −81,212) | −11,671 (335; −28,111) | −33,234 (−256; −78,912) | −43,674 (−599; −69,367) |
% difference | −8.9% (−6.8%; −8.8%) | −2.4% (5.5%; −2.7%) | −6.6% (−6.4%; −6.9%) | −8.7% (−9.3%; −6.3%) |
No. of deaths | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 39,103 (195; 118,692) | 75,847 (834; 142,897) | 70,199 (512; 144,230) | 67,877 (821; 139,586) |
QIV | 45,781 (222; 136,438) | 78,792 (854; 148,743) | 79,315 (603; 157,884) | 79,197 (949; 159,363) |
TIV | 45,515 (223; 134,019) | 97,605 (2707; 172,222) | 83,680 (641; 168,366) | 78,954 (856; 161,318) |
Differencea
| −6678 (−27; −17,747) | −2945 (−19; −5847) | −9116 (−92; −13,654) | −11,320 (−128; −19,777) |
% difference | −14.6% (−12.1%; −13.0%) | −3.7% (−2.3%; −3.9%) | −11.5% (−15.2%; −8.6%) | −14.3% (−13.5%; −12.4%) |
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
Life-years lost | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 119,855 (1453; 754,342) | 108,682 (1399; 736,809) | 94,467 (1319; 657,418) | 449,394 (2386; 1,340,734) | 377,962 (2440; 1,148,208) |
QIV | 123,419 (1498; 763,164) | 125,035 (1411; 852,997) | 113,796 (1395; 776,478) | 463,373 (2398; 1,383,146) | 426,823 (2518; 1,309,509) |
TIV | 196,872 (1616; 1,004,312) | 137,566 (1452; 909,825) | 111,621 (1396; 771,007) | 621,855 (2877; 1,630,082) | 458,629 (2601; 1,342,590) |
Differencea
| −3564 (−45; −8822) | −16,354 (−11; −116,189) | −19,329 (−76; −119,060) | −13,979 (−13; −42,412) | −48,860 (−78; −161,301) |
% difference | −2.9% (−3.0%; −1.2%) | −13.1% (−0.8%; −13.6%) | −17.0% (−5.4%; −15.3%) | −3.0% (−0.5%; −3.1%) | −11.45% (−3.1%; −12.3%) |
QALYs lost | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 117,725 (1468; 750,989) | 107,623 (1373; 733,587) | 94,487 (1322; 647,505) | 438,909 (2388; 1,285,147) | 372,051 (2412; 1,132,941) |
QIV | 120,729 (1485; 743,748) | 122,300 (1436; 845,124) | 111,623 (1385; 763,855) | 450,997 (2369; 1,323,062) | 414,739 (2498; 1,225,306) |
TIV | 191,326 (1594; 979,054) | 134,239 (1420; 848,383) | 109,669 (1391; 742,570) | 601,487 (2832; 1,571,490) | 445,309 (2621; 1,267,852) |
Differencea
| −3,003 (−17; 7241) | −14,676 (−63; −111,537) | −17,136 (−62; −116,350) | −12,088 (19; −37,916) | −42,688 (−86; −92,365) |
% difference | −2.5% (−1.1%; 1.0%) | −12.0% (−4.4%; −13.2%) | −15.4% (−4.5%; −15.2%) | −2.7% (−0.8%; −2.9%) | −10.3% (−3.5%; −7.5%) |
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average intensity | High intensity | |||
High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
Life-years lost | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 430,921 (2180; 1,270,924) | 820,806 (8712; 1,539,347) | 769,512 (5592; 1,504,797) | 746,076 (8396; 1,478,850) |
QIV | 494,200 (2303; 1,373,854) | 849,283 (9001; 1,585,870) | 855,562 (6176; 1,693,696) | 854,594 (9581; 1,656,636) |
TIV | 491,324 (2400; 1,387,800) | 1,044,395 (28,369; 1,807,352) | 900,522 (6859; 1,731,406) | 852,086 (8770; 1,674,012) |
Differencea
| −63,279 (−123; −102,930) | −28,477 (−288; −46,523) | −86,050 (−583; −188,899) | −108,518 (−1185; −177,786) |
% difference | −12.8% (−5.3%; −7.5%) | −3.4% (−3.2%; −2.9%) | −10.1% (−9.4%; −11.2%) | −12.7% (−12.4%; −10.7%) |
QALYs lost | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 425,351 (2139; 1,244,395) | 799,416 (9050; 1,514,181) | 756,731 (5738; 1,481,470) | 735,083 (8837; 1,411,542) |
QIV | 480,757 (2305; 1,376,679) | 824,106 (9078; 1,526,880) | 830,698 (6341; 1,630,491) | 829,167 (9502; 1,578,863) |
TIV | 478,110 (2371; 1,343,693) | 1,008,153 (28,582; 1,729,806) | 872,887 (7000; 1,661,897) | 826,870 (8940; 1,572,709) |
Differencea
| −55,406 (−165; −132,284) | −24,690 (−28; −12,699) | −73,966 (−603; −149,021) | −94,084 (−665; −167,320) |
% difference | −11.5% (−7.2%; −9.6%) | −3.0% (−0.3%; −0.8%) | −8.9% (−9.5%; −9.1%) | −11.3% (−7.0%; −10.6%) |
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low intensity | Average intensity | ||||
Low match | Average match | High match | Low match | Average match | |
Total direct cost ($) | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 5,862,744,268 (4,979,922,003; 10,166,329,974) | 5,796,738,194 (4,994,456,377; 10,204,589,456) | 5,698,162,740 (4,292,767,662; 9,643,329,431) | 8,042,255,362 (5,017,513,611; 13,684,333,296) | 7,637,145,164 (5,030,839,595; 12,801,170,782) |
QIV | 5,878,055,661 (4,982,789,561; 10,145,399,899) | 5,878,094,283 (5,001,678,875; 10,603,198,208) | 5,822,014,487 (4,294,639,371; 10,273,676,447) | 8,101,747,787 (5,015,458,077; 13,751,296,307) | 7,859,208,792 (5,025,722,591; 13,373,063,888) |
TIV | 5,739,239,448 (4,378,561,262; 10,856,173,435) | 5,342,177,037 (4,391,573,217; 10,286,682,937) | 5,175,843,264 (3,709,083,469; 9,818,803,927) | 8,460,800,122 (4,421,920,239; 14,362,290,693) | 7,448,134,136 (4,420,810,998; 12,886,597,651) |
Differencea
| −15,311,393 (−2,867,558; 20,930,076) | −81,356,090 (−7,222,498; −398,608,752) | −123,851,747 (−1,871,709; −630,347,016) | −59,492,425 (2,055,534; −66,963,011) | −222,063,629 (5,117,004; −571,893,106) |
% difference | −0.3% (−0.1%; 0.2%) | −1.4% (−0.1%; −3.8%) | −2.1% (0%; −6.1%) | −0.7% (0%; −0.5%) | −2.8% (−0.5%; −3.1%) |
Indirect cost ($) | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 1,110,302,032 (13,854,187; 6,784,356,482) | 1,032,491,013 (13,489,616; 6,797,683,492) | 935,607,459 (13,392,215; 6,020,317,629) | 3,970,902,930 (23,200,992; 11,022,832,351) | 3,493,632,292 (21,642,149; 10,008,866,236) |
QIV | 1,121,879,432 (13,857,192; 6,894,131,583) | 1,122,205,497 (13,412,778; 7,266,508,478) | 1,034,308,658 (13,623,912; 6,824,717,033) | 4,029,749,632 (23,517,142; 11,121,157,288) | 3,710,329,636 (22,568,815; 10,539,753,244) |
TIV | 1,742,858,530 (14,947,014; 8,509,014,244) | 1,221,436,489 (13,965,662; 7,659,444,819) | 1,021,275,371 (13,674,913; 6,658,587,239) | 5,264,980,704 (27,958,457; 12,760,578,793) | 3,972,405,432 (22,813,591; 10,773,920,531) |
Differencea
| −11,577,400 (−3005; −109,775,101) | −89,714,484 (76,838; −468,824,986 | −98,701,199 (−231,697; −804,399,404) | −58,846,702 (−316,150; −98,324,937) | −216,697,344 (−926,666; −530,887,008) |
% difference | −1.0% (0; −1.6%) | −8.0% (0.6%; −6.5%) | −9.5% (−1.7%; −11.8%) | −1.5% (−1.3%; −0.9%) | −5.8% (−4.1%; −5.0%) |
Total direct + indirect cost ($) | |||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 6,973,046,301 (5,003,286,410; 16,935,685,977) | 6,829,229,207 (5,014,149,292; 17,041,186,131) | 6,633,770,199 (4,335,127,694; 15,573,397,118) | 12,013,158,292 (5,051,828,358; 24,754,660,792) | 11,130,777,456 5,059,015,169; 22,495,970,672) |
QIV | 6,999,935,094 (5,012,016,015; 16,969,916,361) | 7,000,299,780 (5,025,257,724; 17,873,288,303) | 6,856,323,145 (4,335,505,451; 16,786,551,891) | 12,131,497,418 (5,051,677,478; 24,808,699,146) | 11,569,538,428 (5,059,573,085; 23,847,488,759) |
TIV | 7,482,097,978 (4,413,863,390; 19,288,387,147) | 6,563,613,526 (4,415,528,049; 17,916,981,003) | 6,197,118,635 (3,781,220,870; 16,424,107,679) | 13,725,780,826 (4,457,920,325; 26,960,720,664) | 11,420,539,567 (4,454,804,797; 23,556,900,364) |
Differencea
| −26,888,793 (−8,729,605; −34,230,384) | −171,070,573 (−11,108,432; −832,102,172) | −222,552,946 (−377,757; −1,213,154,773) | −118,339,127 (150,880; −54,038,354) | −438,760,972 |
% difference | −0.4% (−0.2%; −0.2%) | −2.4% (−0.2%; −4.7%) | −3.2% (0%; −7.2%) | −1.0% (0%; −0.2%) | −3.8% (0%; −5.7%) |
Probabilistic means (95% CrI) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Average intensity | High intensity | |||
High match | Low match | Average match | High match | |
Total direct cost ($) | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 7,986,717,334 (4,477,887,289; 13,311,825,736) | 10,451,882,571 (5,131,545,727; 14,743,859,812) | 10,280,324,161 (5,090,903,332; 15,151,961,976) | 10,166,916,234 (5,094,458,505; 14,819,582,203) |
QIV | 8,265,153,875 (4,568,855,041; 14,250,701,310) | 10,577,579,955 (5,114,923,273; 14,940,387,210) | 10,643,914,304 (5,087,375,982; 15,671,318,987) | 10,642,258,998 (5,124,313,065; 15,497,524,847) |
TIV | 7,621,849,879 (3,829,515,363; 13,262,097,930) | 11,129,946,026 (4,624,382,452; 15,498,063,020) | 10,304,309,619, (4,490,331,834; 15,587,278,564) | 10,018,298,331 (4,499,448,132; 14,906,251,468) |
Differencea
| −278,436,541 (−90,967,751; −938,875,574) | −125,697,384 (16,622,455; −196,527,398) | −363,590,142 (3,527,350; −519,357,010) | −475,342,764 (−29,854,560; −677,942,645) |
% difference | −3.4% (−2.0%; −6.6%) | −1.2% (0.3%; −1.3%) | −3.4% (0.1%; −3.3%) | −4.5% (−0.6%; −4.4%) |
Indirect cost ($) | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 3,973,558,988 (22,931,245; 10,755,438,916) | 7,084,181,963 (86,711,992; 12,413,064,115) | 6,977,144,522 (64,687,791; 13,166,770,234) | 6,847,245,982 (96,087,031; 12,647,790,170) |
QIV | 4,251,961,937 (23,716,365; 11,446,478,381) | 7,206,819,673 (91,200,807; 12,682,056,752) | 7,314,457,858 (56,299,005; 13,684,890,330) | 7,306,436,705 (94,599,232; 13,393,293,148) |
TIV | 4,235,281,989 (23,738,955; 11,275,778,442) | 8,652,279,149 (261,563,517; 13,974,858,650) | 7,656,940,347 (71,689,988; 14,130,577,268) | 7,290,869,681 (85,840,012; 13,337,119,616) |
Differencea
| −278,402,949 (−785,449; −691,039,465) | −122,637,710 (−4,488,815; −268,992,637) | −337,313,335 (8,388,786; −518,120,096) | −459,190,723 (1,487,799; −745,502,978) |
% difference | −6.5% (−3.3%; −6.0%) | −1.7% (−4.9%; −2.1%) | −4.6% (14.9%; −3.8%) | −6.3% (1.6%; −5.6%) |
Total direct + indirect cost ($) | ||||
aTIV ≥ 65 QIV < 65 | 11,960,276,322 (4,576,925,878; 24,229,988,647) | 17,536,064,533 (5,226,804,809; 27,034,351,861) | 17,257,468,684 (5,156,471,377; 28,168,163,497) | 17,014,162,216 (5,187,077,012; 27,323,581,109) |
QIV | 12,517,115,812 (4,670,390,664; 25,768,606,570) | 17,784,399,628 (5,200,635,357; 27,440,685,930) | 17,958,372,161 (5,138,305,995; 29,275,883,763) | 17,948,695,702 (5,232,732,541; 28,800,572,607) |
TIV | 11,857,131,868 (3,928,358,136; 24,373,203,580) | 19,782,225,175 (4,885,909,124; 29,392,587,997) | 17,961,249,966 (4,545,947,757; 29,714,206,125) | 17,309,168,012 (4,570,594,151; 28,079,994,755) |
Differencea
| −556,839,490 (−93,464,786; −1,538,617,923) | −248,335,094 (26,169,452; −406,334,069) | −700,903,477 (18,165,382; −1,107,720,266) | −934,533,487 (−45,655,530; −1,476,991,498) |
% difference | −4.4% (−2.0%; −6.0%) | −1.4% (0.5%; −1.5%) | −3.9% (0.4%; −3.8%) | −5.2% (−0.9%; −5.1%) |