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13.06.2016 | Original Paper | Ausgabe 2/2017

AIDS and Behavior 2/2017

An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study

AIDS and Behavior > Ausgabe 2/2017
Dan Bai, Cheng-Shiun Leu, Joanne E. Mantell, Theresa M. Exner, Diane Cooper, Susie Hoffman, Elizabeth A. Kelvin, Landon Myer, Debbie Constant, Jennifer Moodley


As a ‘case-study’ to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70–1.00), specificity (0.66–0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79–0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.

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