Background
Methods
Study population
Assessment of diet and cooking oils/fats
Mortality
Statistical analysis
Results
Population characteristics and cooking oil/fat consumption
Butter consumption | Margarine consumption | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Characteristics | Non-consumers | T1 | T2 | T3 | Non-consumers | T1 | T2 | T3 |
Range (g 2000 kcal−1 d−1) | 0 | ≤ 3.1 | 3.2–8.5 | ≥ 8.6 | 0 | ≤5.7 | 5.8–13.7 | ≥13.8 |
n | 303,987 | 72,377 | 72,378 | 72,378 | 134,374 | 128,915 | 128,916 | 128,915 |
Age (y) | 63.0 | 62.2 | 62.5 | 63.1 | 62.5 | 62.3 | 62.8 | 63.6 |
Male (%) | 58.4 | 65.1 | 61.2 | 51.7 | 56.3 | 64.3 | 62.7 | 52.0 |
BMI (kg/m2) | 26.4 | 26.1 | 26.5 | 26.4 | 26.1 | 26.2 | 26.6 | 26.5 |
Race (%) | ||||||||
White | 92.3 | 89.4 | 91.3 | 92.6 | 91.7 | 89.9 | 92.5 | 93.0 |
Black | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.0 |
Hispanic | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
Asian | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
Married (%) | 69.9 | 68.1 | 67.9 | 63.0 | 65.5 | 69.7 | 71.0 | 67.6 |
Annual household income (USD)a | 47,243 | 51,690 | 50,330 | 49,925 | 50,282 | 50,557 | 48,047 | 46,077 |
College graduate or postgraduate (%) | 37.3 | 47.5 | 39.8 | 36.8 | 40.1 | 44.6 | 38.2 | 33.2 |
Current smoker (%) | 10.8 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 12.1 |
Physical activity, ≥ 5 times/wk (%) | 19.4 | 22.1 | 17.6 | 16.3 | 19.8 | 21.6 | 18.0 | 17.1 |
Heart disease (%) | 15.7 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 15.7 |
Stroke (%) | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
Cancer (%) | 9.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 9.7 |
Diabetes (%) | 9.6 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 11.6 |
Fair or poor health (%) | 13.5 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 15.4 |
Currently using multivitamins (%) | 55.8 | 56.6 | 55.2 | 54.8 | 56.1 | 56.4 | 55.0 | 55.2 |
Daily use of aspirin (%) | 16.2 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 13.5 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.8 |
Daily dietary intake | ||||||||
Total energy (kcal/d) | 1666.6 | 1651.6 | 1759.3 | 1749.3 | 1711.1 | 1649.3 | 1733.4 | 1661.4 |
Alcohol from alcoholic drinks (g/d) | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Total protein (% of energy) | 15.5 | 15.6 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 15.2 |
Total fat (% of energy) | 29.8 | 26.6 | 31.1 | 35.0 | 31.1 | 26.6 | 30.4 | 32.8 |
Butter | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 13.7 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Margarine | 10.4 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 20.6 |
Corn oil | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Canola oil | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Olive oil | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Healthy Eating Index score | 70.5 | 70.4 | 66.4 | 61.6 | 65.8 | 70.1 | 68.6 | 70.2 |
All-cause mortality
Categories of individual cooking oil/fat consumption | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-consumers | T1 | T2 | T3 | P trend | |
Butter | |||||
Median intake (IQR) | 0 | 1.0 (0.4–2.0) | 5.5 (4.2–6.9) | 13.7 (10.7–18.8) | |
Death cases/n | 75,826/303,987 | 15,792/72,377 | 17,915/72,378 | 19,795/72,378 | |
Person-years | 4,262,749 | 1,030,708 | 1,014,202 | 999,439 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.88 (0.86–0.89) | 1.02 (1.00–1.03) | 1.14 (1.13–1.16) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.94–0.97) | 1.04 (1.02–1.06) | 1.12 (1.10–1.14) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 1.05 (1.03–1.06) | 1.09 (1.07–1.11) | < 0.001 |
Margarine | |||||
Median intake (IQR) | 0 | 2.4 (0.9–4.0) | 9.3 (7.4–11.4) | 20.6 (16.7–26.6) | |
Death cases/n | 32,633/134,374 | 29,070/128,915 | 32,583/128,916 | 35,042/128,915 | |
Person-years | 1,888,086 | 1,829,523 | 1,804,411 | 1,785,077 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.90 (0.89–0.92) | 1.01 (0.99–1.02) | 1.08 (1.06–1.09) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.92–0.95) | 0.99 (0.97–1.00) | 1.00 (0.99–1.02) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | 1.07 (1.05–1.09) | < 0.001 |
Corn oil | |||||
Median intake (IQR) | 0 | 0.4 (0.2–0.5) | 1.1 (0.8–1.4) | 3.4 (2.4–5.5) | |
Death cases/n | 98,499/399,360 | 9400/40586 | 10,240/40,587 | 11,189/40,587 | |
Person-years | 5,605,569 | 574,055 | 567,538 | 559,935 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.95 (0.93–0.97) | 1.03 (1.01–1.05) | 1.12 (1.10–1.14) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) | 1.02 (1.00–1.04) | 0.21 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.94–0.99) | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 0.99 (0.97–1.01) | 0.092 |
Canola oil | |||||
Median intake (IQR) | 0 | 0.4 (0.2–0.5) | 1.0 (0.8–1.3) | 3.2 (2.3–5.3) | |
Death cases/n | 95,507/376,913 | 10,571/48,069 | 11,129/48,069 | 12,121/48,069 | |
Person-years | 5,269,352 | 684,537 | 680,475 | 672,733 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.88 (0.86–0.89) | 0.91 (0.89–0.92) | 0.98 (0.96–0.99) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.93–0.96) | 0.96 (0.94–0.97) | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | < 0.001 |
Olive oil | |||||
Median intake (IQR) | 0 | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) | 1.2 (0.9–1.5) | 3.8 (2.6–6.2) | |
Death cases/n | 91,948/353,766 | 11,878/55,784 | 12,386/55,785 | 13,116/55,785 | |
Person-years | 4,930,793 | 796,402 | 793,033 | 786,869 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.85 (0.84–0.87) | 0.87 (0.86–0.89) | 0.91 (0.89–0.93) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.92–0.96) | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.94–0.99) | 0.97 (0.95–0.98) | 0.96 (0.95–0.98) | < 0.001 |
Cardiometabolic mortality
Categories of individual cooking oil/fat consumption | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-consumers | T1 | T2 | T3 | P trend | |
Cardiovascular disease mortality | |||||
Butter | |||||
Death cases/n | 23,406/303,987 | 4623/72,377 | 5213/72,378 | 5505/72,378 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.83 (0.80–0.86) | 0.96 (0.93–0.99) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.90–0.96) | 1.02 (0.99–1.05) | 1.07 (1.04–1.11) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.93–1.00) | 1.04 (1.01–1.08) | 1.08 (1.05–1.12) | < 0.001 |
Margarine | |||||
Death cases/n | 9305/134,374 | 8630/128,915 | 9901/128,916 | 10,911/128,915 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.90–0.96) | 1.06 (1.03–1.09) | 1.17 (1.14–1.21) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.95 (0.92–0.98) | 1.02 (0.99–1.05) | 1.04 (1.01–1.07) | < 0.001 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.97–1.04) | 1.06 (1.02–1.09) | 1.10 (1.06–1.14) | < 0.001 |
Corn oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 29,443/399,360 | 2830/40,586 | 3068/40,587 | 3406/40,587 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.93–1.01) | 1.03 (0.99–1.07) | 1.14 (1.10–1.18) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.99 (0.96–1.03) | 1.00 (0.97–1.04) | 1.02 (0.99–1.06) | 0.22 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 1.01 (0.96–1.05) | 0.99 (0.95–1.03) | 1.00 (0.96–1.03) | 0.78 |
Canola oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 28,520/376,913 | 3149/48,069 | 3362/48,069 | 3716/48,069 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.89 (0.85–0.92) | 0.93 (0.89–0.96) | 1.01 (0.97–1.04) | 0.70 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.92–1.00) | 0.97 (0.94–1.01) | 0.97 (0.94–1.01) | 0.080 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.99 (0.95–1.04) | 0.98 (0.94–1.02) | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | 0.052 |
Olive oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 27,962/353,766 | 3377/55,784 | 3578/55,785 | 3830/55,785 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.81 (0.78–0.84) | 0.84 (0.81–0.87) | 0.88 (0.85–0.91) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.92 (0.89–0.96) | 0.95 (0.92–0.98) | 0.95 (0.92–0.98) | 0.002 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.89–0.97) | 0.95 (0.92–0.99) | 0.95 (0.92–0.99) | 0.001 |
Diabetes mortality | |||||
Butter | |||||
Death cases/n | 389/72,377 | 427/72,378 | 537/72,378 | 3512/72,378 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) | 0.84 (0.76–0.94) | 1.10 (1.00–1.21) | 0.062 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.93 (0.84–1.04) | 0.96 (0.86–1.06) | 1.11 (1.01–1.22) | 0.037 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 0.99 (0.89–1.11) | 1.18 (1.06–1.32) | 0.004 |
Margarine | |||||
Death cases/n | 782/134,374 | 732/128,915 | 896/128,916 | 1102/128,915 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.85–1.04) | 1.16 (1.05–1.27) | 1.44 (1.32–1.58) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.97 (0.88–1.07) | 1.03 (0.93–1.13) | 1.06 (0.96–1.16) | 0.091 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 1.05 (0.93–1.18) | 1.08 (0.97–1.21) | 1.12 (1.00–1.26) | 0.047 |
Corn oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 2670/399,360 | 235/40,586 | 296/40,587 | 311/40,587 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.88 (0.77–1.00) | 1.09 (0.97–1.23) | 1.15 (1.03–1.30) | 0.009 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.82–1.08) | 1.06 (0.94–1.19) | 0.95 (0.85–1.07) | 0.56 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.96 (0.83–1.12) | 1.02 (0.90–1.16) | 0.95 (0.84–1.07) | 0.41 |
Canola oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 2560/376,913 | 270/48,069 | 325/48,069 | 357/48,069 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.84 (0.74–0.95) | 1.00 (0.89–1.12) | 1.09 (0.97–1.21) | 0.14 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.99 (0.87–1.12) | 1.10 (0.98–1.23) | 0.99 (0.88–1.10) | 0.95 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 1.07 (0.92–1.24) | 1.08 (0.96–1.22) | 0.99 (0.88–1.11) | 0.96 |
Olive oil | |||||
Death cases/n | 2635/353,766 | 257/55,784 | 309/55,785 | 311/55,785 | |
Model 1a | 1.00 | 0.64 (0.56–0.73) | 0.76 (0.67–0.85) | 0.75 (0.67–0.84) | < 0.001 |
Model 2b | 1.00 | 0.85 (0.75–0.97) | 0.97 (0.86–1.09) | 0.87 (0.77–0.98) | 0.022 |
Model 3c | 1.00 | 0.84 (0.72–0.98) | 0.94 (0.83–1.06) | 0.87 (0.77–0.99) | 0.019 |