Background
Methods
Description of the SEIRL-V model
Conditional robustness analysis
Results
Parameter |
p
mode
| 90th Percentile |
---|---|---|
\(b_{e,1}\)
| 0.1342 | [0.1318–0.1721] |
\(b_{0,1}\)
| 0.2109 | [0.1833–0.214] |
\(b_{e,2}\)
| 0.2512 | [0.2393–0.3451] |
\(b_{0,2}\)
| 0.19 | [0.1366–0.205] |
\(b_1\)
| 0.0120 | [0.0112–0.0261] |
\(b_2\)
| 0.0516 | [0.0517–0.0677] |
\(b_3\)
| 0.0145 | [0.0112–0.0267 |
FracSevere
| 0.0253 | [0.0221–0.0283] |
\(FracCritical_1\)
| 0.005 | [0.0051–0.0057] |
\(FracCritical_2\)
| 0.007 | [0.0061–0.0073] |
\(FracCritical_3\)
| 0.0035 | [0.0031–0.0039] |
\(FracCritical_4\)
| 0.0048 | [0.0041–0.0049] |
FracAsym
| 0.4618 | [0.4529–0.4772] |
IncubPeriod
| 5.2668 | [5.1188–5.2792] |
DurMildInf
| 9.8982 | [8.366–10.7008] |
DurAsym
| 14.5149 | [14.1736–15.7103] |
DurHosp
| 15.6204 | [15.0902–15.8961] |
TimeICUDeath
| 12.6742 | [12.0992–12.8822] |
ProbDeath
| 34.7989 | [33.4267–36.5895] |
\(ProbDeath_H\)
| 25.3705 | [22.1059–25.5674] |
PresymPeriod
| 0.637 | [0.6033–0.6363] |
n
| 47.1717 | [46.4324–58.8729 |
K
|
\(4.44\cdot 10^4\)
| [\(3.3381\cdot 10^4\) – \(5.7296\cdot 10^4\)] |
\(s_{01}\)
| 1.0409 | [1.0055–1.0442] |
\(s_{02}\)
| 0.3095 | [0.2653–0.369] |
\(s_{03}\)
| 0.2634 | [0.2099–03254] |
\(s_{04}\)
| 0.6842 | [0.612–0.7307] |
\(s_{05}\)
| 0.1837 | [0.1344–0.2704] |
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
\(a_1\)
| 0.0028 |
\(a_0\)
| 0.523 |
\(g_1\)
| [0.0979, 0.0977, 0.0981, 0.0979] |
\(p_1\)
| [0.0031, 0.0033, 0.0029, 0.0031] |
\(p_2\)
| [0.0105, 0.0138, 0.0269, 0.0102] |
\(u_1\)
| 0.0162 |
\(g_2\)
| [0.0373, 0.034, 0.0209, 0.0376] |
u
| 0.0274 |
\(g_3\)
| 0.0515 |
f
| 0.4618 |
\(g_0\)
| 0,0688 |
Parameter | Value |
L
1
|
U
1
|
---|---|---|---|
\(\delta\)
| 240 days | 180 days | 540 days |
\(\rho _{1}\)
| 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.95 |
\(\rho _{2}\)
| 0.95 | 0.6 | 0.95 |
\(\tau\)
| 21 days | 21 days | 104 days |
\(\rho _{3}\)
| 0.808 | 0.3 | 0.95 |
\(\rho _{4}\)
| 0.946 | 0.6 | 0.95 |
\(\eta\) | \(\delta\) | \([s_{06},s_{07},s_{08}]\) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario A | 1 | \([10^5,10^6]\) | [180d,540d] | [0.5, 0.6, 0.7] |
2 | \([10^5,10^6]\) | [180d,540d] | [0.8, 0.9, 1] | |
3 | \([10^5,10^6]\) | [180d,540d] | [1.1, 1.2, 1.3] | |
Scenario B | 1 | \(10^5\) | [180d,540d] | [0.5, 1.5] |
2 | \(5 \cdot 10^5\) | [180d,540d] | [0.5, 1.5] | |
3 | \(10^6\) | [180d,540d] | [0.5, 1.5] | |
Scenario C | 1 | \([10^510^6]\) | 180d | [0.5, 1.5] |
2 | \([10^5,10^6]\) | 360d | [0.5, 1.5] | |
3 | \([10^5,10^6]\) | 540d | [0.5, 1.5] |