Background
Methods
Data collection
Data analysis
Results
Variable | Mean | SD | Min | 90% | 95% | 96% | 97% | 98% | 99% | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | 15 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 42 |
EHAs | 129 | 21 | 71 | 156 | 165 | 166 | 171 | 175 | 181 | 202 |
Air pollutant | ||||||||||
PM10 (μg/m3) | 17.4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 24.2 | 28.3 | 29.6 | 31.4 | 33.5 | 39.4 | 78.6 |
NO2 (ppb) | 13.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 18.2 | 20.7 | 21.6 | 22.7 | 23.7 | 26.4 | 35.0 |
O3 (ppb) | 32.0 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 47.9 | 53.8 | 55.8 | 58.4 | 61.3 | 66.9 | 88.2 |
Temperature (°C) | ||||||||||
Maximum | 28.9 | 2.5 | 20.3 | 32.0 | 32.9 | 33.2 | 33.7 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 41.2 |
Minimum | 19.6 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 22.9 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 24.3 | 24.6 | 25.3 | 27.7 |
Mean | 24.2 | 2.2 | 18.1 | 27.1 | 28.0 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 28.9 | 29.9 | 34.5 |
Humidity (%) | 64.9 | 11.7 | 16.0 | 79.9 | 83.9 | 85.9 | 88.0 | 89.6 | 91.5 | 96.5 |
Intensity of percentile | Heatwave event (day) | ||
---|---|---|---|
Warm season | Early warm seasonc
| Late warm seasond
| |
≥99% (29.9°C) | 3 (8) | 1 (3) | 2 (5) |
≥98% (28.9°C) | 8 (18) | 4 (9) | 4 (9) |
≥97% (28.5°C) | 10 (28) | 5 (12) | 5 (16) |
≥96% (28.1°C) | 19 (54) | 9 (22) | 10 (32) |
≥95% (28.0°C) | 20 (59) | 9 (24) | 11 (35) |
≥90% (27.1°C) | 34 (118) | 16 (52) | 18 (66) |
Intensity of percentile | Unadjusted RR [95% CI] | AdjustedbRR [95% CI] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | |
Lag 0 | ||||
≥99% | 1.58 [1.36 - 1.83] | 1.25 [1.19 - 1.33] | 1.49 [1.28 - 1.73] | 1.17 [1.11 - 1.24] |
≥98% | 1.35 [1.20 - 1.51] | 1.20 [1.16 - 1.25] | 1.28 [1.14 - 1.43] | 1.14 [1.10 - 1.19] |
≥97% | 1.34 [1.22 - 1.46] | 1.16 [1.13 - 1.20] | 1.26 [1.15 - 1.39] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.16] |
≥96% | 1.29 [1.20 - 1.39] | 1.14 [1.12 - 1.17] | 1.23 [1.14 - 1.33] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.15] |
≥95% | 1.29 [1.20 - 1.38] | 1.14 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.22 [1.14 - 1.32] | 1.12 [1.10 - 1.15] |
≥90% | 1.19 [1.13 - 1.26] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] | 1.14 [1.08 - 1.20] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lag 1 | ||||
≥99% | 1.76 [1.53 - 2.02] | 1.34 [1.27 - 1.42] | 1.67 [1.44 - 1.93] | 1.28 [1.21 - 1.35] |
≥98% | 1.39 [1.24 - 1.55] | 1.22 [1.17 - 1.27] | 1.32 [1.18 - 1.49] | 1.16 [1.12 - 1.21] |
≥97% | 1.38 [1.26 - 1.51] | 1.16 [1.13 - 1.20] | 1.33 [1.21 - 1.47] | 1.12 [1.08 - 1.15] |
≥96% | 1.26 [1.17 - 1.35] | 1.14 [1.12 - 1.17] | 1.21 [1.12 - 1.31] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.14] |
≥95% | 1.25 [1.17 - 1.34] | 1.14 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.21 [1.12 - 1.30] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.14] |
≥90% | 1.15 [1.09 - 1.21] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] | 1.11 [1.05 - 1.17] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lag 2 | ||||
≥99% | 1.74 [1.52 - 2.01] | 1.34 [1.27 - 1.41] | 1.68 [1.45 - 1.94] | 1.29 [1.22 - 1.36] |
≥98% | 1.40 [1.25 - 1.56] | 1.19 [1.15 - 1.24] | 1.36 [1.21 - 1.52] | 1.15 [1.11 - 1.20] |
≥97% | 1.29 [1.17 - 1.41] | 1.16 [1.13 - 1.20] | 1.24 [1.13 - 1.37] | 1.13 [1.09 - 1.17] |
≥96% | 1.20 [1.12 - 1.29] | 1.13 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.17 [1.08 - 1.26] | 1.11 [1.09 - 1.14] |
≥95% | 1.18 [1.10 - 1.26] | 1.13 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.14 [1.06 - 1.23] | 1.11 [1.08 - 1.13] |
≥90% | 1.10 [1.04 - 1.16] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] | 1.07 [1.02 - 1.13] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lag 3 | ||||
≥99% | 1.31 [1.12 - 1.54] | 1.22 [1.16 - 1.29] | 1.27 [1.08 - 1.49] | 1.19 [1.12 - 1.26] |
≥98% | 1.24 [1.10 - 1.39] | 1.14 [1.10 - 1.19] | 1.21 [1.07 - 1.36] | 1.13 [1.08 - 1.17] |
≥97% | 1.21 [1.10 - 1.33] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.16] | 1.18 [1.07 - 1.30] | 1.10 [1.06 - 1.14] |
≥96% | 1.16 [1.08 - 1.25] | 1.11 [1.08 - 1.13] | 1.14 [1.06 - 1.23] | 1.09 [1.07 - 1.12] |
≥95% | 1.15 [1.07 - 1.23] | 1.10 [1.08 - 1.13] | 1.13 [1.05 - 1.22] | 1.09 [1.06 - 1.11] |
≥90% | 1.11 [1.05 - 1.17] | 1.05 [1.03 - 1.07] | 1.10 [1.04 - 1.16] | 1.05 [1.03 - 1.07] |
Intensity of percentile | Unadjusted RR [95% CI] | AdjustedbRR [95% CI] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | |
Lags 0-1 | ||||
≥99% | 1.66 [1.47 - 1.88] | 1.27 [1.22 - 1.33] | 1.58 [1.39 - 1.79] | 1.20 [1.15 - 1.26] |
≥98% | 1.36 [1.24 - 1.49] | 1.20 [1.16 - 1.23] | 1.30 [1.18 - 1.43] | 1.14 [1.10 - 1.18] |
≥97% | 1.33 [1.23 - 1.44] | 1.14 [1.11 - 1.17] | 1.28 [1.18 - 1.39] | 1.10 [1.07 - 1.13] |
≥96% | 1.26 [1.18 - 1.34] | 1.13 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.21 [1.13 - 1.30] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.14] |
≥95% | 1.24 [1.17 - 1.32] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.15] | 1.20 [1.12 - 1.28] | 1.11 [1.09 - 1.14] |
≥90% | 1.16 [1.11 - 1.22] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.08] | 1.12 [1.06 - 1.17] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lags 0-2 | ||||
≥99% | 1.64 [1.47 - 1.83] | 1.26 [1.21 - 1.31] | 1.57 [1.40 - 1.76] | 1.20 [1.15 - 1.25] |
≥98% | 1.35 [1.24 - 1.46] | 1.18 [1.14 - 1.21] | 1.30 [1.19 - 1.42] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.16] |
≥97% | 1.29 [1.20 - 1.38] | 1.14 [1.12 - 1.17] | 1.25 [1.16 - 1.35] | 1.11 [1.08 - 1.14] |
≥96% | 1.23 [1.16 - 1.30] | 1.13 [1.11 - 1.15] | 1.19 [1.12 - 1.27] | 1.11 [1.09 - 1.13] |
≥95% | 1.21 [1.14 - 1.28] | 1.12 [1.10 - 1.14] | 1.17 [1.10 - 1.25] | 1.10 [1.08 - 1.13] |
≥90% | 1.15 [1.10 - 1.20] | 1.07 [1.06 - 1.08] | 1.11 [1.06 - 1.16] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lags 0-3 | ||||
≥99% | 1.53 [1.38 - 1.70] | 1.25 [1.20 - 1.30] | 1.47 [1.32 - 1.64] | 1.20 [1.15 - 1.24] |
≥98% | 1.31 [1.21 - 1.42] | 1.17 [1.14 - 1.20] | 1.27 [1.17 - 1.38] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.16] |
≥97% | 1.25 [1.17 - 1.33] | 1.14 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.21 [1.13 - 1.30] | 1.11 [1.08 - 1.13] |
≥96% | 1.20 [1.14 - 1.27] | 1.12 [1.10 - 1.14] | 1.17 [1.11 - 1.24] | 1.11 [1.09 - 1.13] |
≥95% | 1.19 [1.13 - 1.25] | 1.12 [1.10 - 1.13] | 1.16 [1.09 - 1.22] | 1.10 [1.08 - 1.12] |
≥90% | 1.13 [1.09 - 1.18] | 1.07 [1.06 - 1.08] | 1.10 [1.05 - 1.15] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.09] |
Intensity of percentile | Unadjusted RR [95% CI] | AdjustedbRR [95% CI] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | |
Early warm seasonc
| ||||
≥99% | 1.10 [0.82 - 1.46] |
1.12 [1.02 - 1.22]
| 1.04 [0.78 - 1.40] | 1.08 [0.98 - 1.18] |
≥98% |
1.24 [1.03 - 1.48]
|
1.17 [1.11 - 1.24]
|
1.19 [1.00 - 1.43]
|
1.14 [1.08 - 1.20]
|
≥97% | 1.12 [0.96 - 1.31] |
1.14 [1.09 - 1.20]
| 1.08 [0.91 - 1.27] |
1.11 [1.06 - 1.17]
|
≥96% |
1.18 [1.05 - 1.33]
|
1.13 [1.09 - 1.17]
|
1.14 [1.01 - 1.29]
|
1.11 [1.07 - 1.15]
|
≥95% |
1.18 [1.05 - 1.33]
|
1.14 [1.10 - 1.18]
|
1.14 [1.01 - 1.29]
|
1.12 [1.08 - 1.16]
|
≥90% |
1.09 [1.00 - 1.18]
|
1.06 [1.04 - 1.09]
| 1.05 [0.97 - 1.15] |
1.07 [1.04 - 1.10]
|
Late warm seasond
| ||||
≥99% |
1.88 [1.58 - 2.24]
|
1.35 [1.26 - 1.44]
|
1.71 [1.42 - 2.07]
|
1.20 [1.11 - 1.29]
|
≥98% |
1.43 [1.24 - 1.66]
|
1.23 [1.17 - 1.30]
|
1.29 [1.11 - 1.51]
|
1.14 [1.08 - 1.20]
|
≥97% |
1.48 [1.33 - 1.65]
|
1.19 [1.14 - 1.24]
|
1.35 [1.20 - 1.52]
|
1.13 [1.08 - 1.18]
|
≥96% |
1.37 [1.25 - 1.50]
|
1.16 [1.12 - 1.19]
|
1.26 [1.15 - 1.39]
|
1.14 [1.10 - 1.17]
|
≥95% |
1.35 [1.24 - 1.47]
|
1.14 [1.11 - 1.17]
|
1.24 [1.13 - 1.37]
|
1.13 [1.09 - 1.16]
|
≥90% |
1.27 [1.19 - 1.36]
|
1.08 [1.06 - 1.11]
|
1.19 [1.10 - 1.28]
|
1.10 [1.07 - 1.12]
|
Intensity of percentile | Unadjusted RR [95% CI] | AdjustedbRR [95% CI] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | |
Respiratory | ||||
≥99% |
1.70 [1.04 - 2.80]
|
1.35 [1.16 - 1.58]
| 1.34 [0.80 - 2.23] |
1.30 [1.11 - 1.52]
|
≥98% |
1.75 [1.24 - 2.48]
|
1.19 [1.07 - 1.33]
|
1.49 [1.04 - 2.14]
|
1.14 [1.02 - 1.28]
|
≥97% |
1.55 [1.15 - 2.08]
|
1.13 [1.03 - 1.24]
|
1.37 [1.00 - 1.87]
|
1.10 [1.00 - 1.21]
|
≥96% |
1.45 [1.15 - 1.83]
|
1.14 [1.07 - 1.22]
|
1.34 [1.05 - 1.72]
|
1.12 [1.04 - 1.20]
|
≥95% |
1.42 [1.13 - 1.79]
|
1.14 [1.07 - 1.21]
|
1.32 [1.04 - 1.69]
|
1.11 [1.04 - 1.19]
|
≥90% |
1.33 [1.11 - 1.58]
|
1.08 [1.03 - 1.13]
|
1.31 [1.09 - 1.58]
|
1.07 [1.01 - 1.12]
|
Cardiovascular | ||||
≥99% |
1.90 [1.56 - 2.33]
| 1.04 [0.90 - 1.20] |
1.81 [1.47 - 2.23]
| 1.04 [0.89 - 1.20] |
≥98% |
1.46 [1.24 - 1.72]
| 1.07 [0.98 - 1.18] |
1.38 [1.16 - 1.63]
| 1.06 [0.97 - 1.17] |
≥97% |
1.50 [1.32 - 1.71]
| 1.00 [0.92 - 1.08] |
1.41 [1.23 - 1.62]
| 0.99 [0.92 - 1.08] |
≥96% |
1.36 [1.23 - 1.51]
| 0.99 [0.94 - 1.05] |
1.28 [1.15 - 1.43]
| 0.99 [0.93 - 1.05] |
≥95% |
1.37 [1.24 - 1.51]
| 1.00 [0.95 - 1.06] |
1.29 [1.16 - 1.43]
| 1.00 [0.94 - 1.06] |
≥90% |
1.23 [1.14 - 1.33]
| 0.98 [0.94 - 1.02] |
1.16 [1.07 - 1.26]
| 0.98 [0.94 - 1.02] |
0 - 64 age group | ||||
≥99% |
1.49 [1.03 - 2.15]
|
1.13 [1.05 - 1.22]
|
1.49 [1.02 - 2.17]
| 1.06 [0.98 - 1.14] |
≥98% | 1.28 [0.97 - 1.69] |
1.14 [1.08 - 1.19]
| 1.26 [0.95 - 1.68] |
1.08 [1.03 - 1.14]
|
≥97% | 1.19 [0.94 - 1.50] |
1.11 [1.07 - 1.16]
| 1.16 [0.92 - 1.48] |
1.07 [1.03 - 1.12]
|
≥96% |
1.20 [1.00 - 1.43]
|
1.12 [1.08 - 1.15]
| 1.17 [0.97 - 1.41] |
1.10 [1.07 - 1.13]
|
≥95% |
1.21 [1.02 - 1.43]
|
1.11 [1.08 - 1.14]
| 1.18 [0.98 - 1.41] |
1.10 [1.06 - 1.13]
|
≥90% | 1.13 [0.99 - 1.28] |
1.06 [1.03 - 1.08]
| 1.09 [0.95 - 1.24] |
1.07 [1.04 - 1.09]
|
65 - 74 age group | ||||
≥99% | 1.38 [0.96 - 1.99] |
1.21 [1.04 - 1.41]
| 1.41 [0.96 - 2.05] |
1.24 [1.06 - 1.45]
|
≥98% | 1.11 [0.83 - 1.48] | 1.10 [0.99 - 1.22] | 1.10 [0.82 - 1.49] | 1.11 [0.99 - 1.24] |
≥97% | 1.13 [0.90 - 1.41] |
1.12 [1.03 - 1.22]
| 1.09 [0.86 - 1.39] |
1.14 [1.04 - 1.24]
|
≥96% | 1.13 [0.95 - 1.35] |
1.08 [1.01 - 1.15]
| 1.09 [0.91 - 1.31] |
1.09 [1.02 - 1.16]
|
≥95% | 1.11 [0.93 - 1.32] |
1.07 [1.01 - 1.14]
| 1.06 [0.89 - 1.27] |
1.08 [1.01 - 1.15]
|
≥90% | 1.01 [0.89 - 1.15] | 1.02 [0.97 - 1.07] | 0.94 [0.82 - 1.08] | 1.02 [0.97 - 1.07] |
75 and over age group | ||||
≥99% |
1.66 [1.39 - 1.98]
|
1.55 [1.41 - 1.71]
|
1.51 [1.26 - 1.81]
|
1.39 [1.26 - 1.54]
|
≥98% |
1.43 [1.25 - 1.64]
|
1.40 [1.31 - 1.50]
|
1.33 [1.15 - 1.53]
|
1.29 [1.20 - 1.39]
|
≥97% |
1.43 [1.29 - 1.60]
|
1.31 [1.24 - 1.39]
|
1.33 [1.19 - 1.49]
|
1.23 [1.16 - 1.31]
|
≥96% |
1.36 [1.25 - 1.48]
|
1.25 [1.19 - 1.30]
|
1.29 [1.18 - 1.41]
|
1.21 [1.15 - 1.26]
|
≥95% |
1.36 [1.25 - 1.47]
|
1.24 [1.19 - 1.29]
|
1.28 [1.17 - 1.40]
|
1.21 [1.16 - 1.26]
|
≥90% |
1.26 [1.18 - 1.34]
|
1.13 [1.09 - 1.16]
|
1.21 [1.13 - 1.29]
|
1.14 [1.10 - 1.17]
|
Intensity of percentile | RR [95% CI]b
| RR [95% CI]c
| RR [95% CI]d
| |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | Deaths | EHAs | |
Lag 0 | ||||||
≥98% | 1.28 [1.14 - 1.43] | 1.14 [1.10 - 1.19] | 1.30 [1.08 - 1.56] | 1.21 [1.14 - 1.29] | n/a | n/a |
≥95% | 1.22 [1.14 - 1.32] | 1.12 [1.10 - 1.15] | 1.27 [1.17 - 1.38] | 1.15 [1.12 - 1.18] | 1.19 [1.07 - 1.32] | 1.15 [1.11 - 1.19] |
≥90% | 1.14 [1.08 - 1.20] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] | 1.15 [1.08 - 1.22] | 1.08 [1.05 - 1.10] | 1.19 [1.11 - 1.27] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] |
Lag 1 | ||||||
≥98% | 1.33 [1.18 - 1.49] | 1.16 [1.11 - 1.20] | 1.35 [1.12 - 1.62] | 1.27 [1.19 - 1.35] | n/a | n/a |
≥95% | 1.20 [1.12 - 1.30] | 1.12 [1.09 - 1.14] | 1.32 [1.21 - 1.43] | 1.15 [1.12 - 1.18] | 1.22 [1.10 - 1.35] | 1.15 [1.11 - 1.19] |
≥90% | 1.11 [1.05 - 1.17] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.09] | 1.17 [1.10 - 1.24] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] | 1.21 [1.13 - 1.29] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.10] |
Lag 2 | ||||||
≥98% | 1.36 [1.21 - 1.52] | 1.15 [1.11 - 1.20] | 1.48 [1.24 - 1.76] | 1.33 [1.25 - 1.42] | n/a | n/a |
≥95% | 1.14 [1.06 - 1.23] | 1.11 [1.08 - 1.13] | 1.22 [1.13 - 1.33] | 1.15 [1.12 - 1.18] | 1.22 [1.10 - 1.35] | 1.13 [1.09 - 1.17] |
≥90% | 1.07 [1.02 - 1.13] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] | 1.13 [1.06 - 1.20] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] | 1.17 [1.10 - 1.25] | 1.06 [1.04 - 1.08] |
Lags 0 - 2 | ||||||
≥98% | 1.30 [1.19 - 1.42] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.16] | 1.30 [1.12 - 1.50] | 1.24 [1.18 - 1.30] | n/a | n/a |
≥95% | 1.17 [1.10 - 1.25] | 1.10 [1.08 - 1.13] | 1.24 [1.15 - 1.33] | 1.13 [1.11 - 1.16] | 1.19 [1.09 - 1.30] | 1.13 [1.10 - 1.17] |
≥90% | 1.11 [1.06 - 1.16] | 1.08 [1.06 - 1.10] | 1.15 [1.09 - 1.22] | 1.06 [1.05 - 1.08] | 1.19 [1.13 - 1.27] | 1.07 [1.05 - 1.09] |